NOAA Updates its June Outlook May 31, 2022 – Quite a Big Change in Twelve Days

June 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

There has been a large change in the weather outlook for June from NOAA.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is June. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is quite different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. For temperature, the above-normal area is smaller than the Mid-Month Outlook and a large intrusion of colder air is expected along much of the Northern Tier. The drier than normal area is significantly reduced from the Mid-Month Outlook and shifted a bit and there are two additional areas of wetter than normal in the Outlook.

We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 24 days of June which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial month forecasts and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday.

We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during June.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. The Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected in the first half of June is a major factor.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year.

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook on April 21, 2022 – High Level of Uncertainty Near and Longer Term

April 22, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of May plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information that was issued and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps. But I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).
Because of the high level of uncertainty indicated for the May Outlook, I will provide an update or publish a short addendum when the week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated later today. Sometimes that adds additional clarity. I urge readers to read the discussion that was issued by NOAA with their Outlook maps.

NOAA Updates Their February 2022 Outlook

February 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is February. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight as well as some interesting information on the change in Western streamflow median levels in the new climatology versus the prior climatology. This tells us how the past three decades have changed from the prior three decades. It is in line with what should be expected and is very interesting. It suggests that on average the West is drying out but I think I also see a secondary trend where it may be getting drier to the south and wetter to the north.

JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022

January 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook.  JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons.  I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.

NOAA Updates the Weather Outlook for January 2022

January 3, 2022Posted inweather1 Comment

Written by Sig Silber

Here are the latest weather and drought forecasts for January 2022.  Every month on the last day of the month NOAA updates the weather forecast for the following month – in this case, January of 2022.  Also included is the summary from a recent USDA report on Irrigation by Frank Ward who is a professor at New Mexico State University.