Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 13, 2023

March 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:14 p.m. Monday March 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023

…Major Winter Storms to impact both the Northeast and California over
the next few days…

…Widespread Heavy snows likely from northeast Pennsylvania, far
northwest New Jersey, across much of New York State and much of New
England…

…Another Atmospheric River event taking aim at much California,
producing additional major flooding and high elevation heavy snows…

…A hard freeze possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning from the Tennessee
Valley into portions of the South and Southeast…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 12, 2023

March 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4 p.m. EDT, March 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 15 2023

…A potent storm system is expected to bring a moderate risk of flash
flooding and heavy mountain snow over parts of California…

…A wavy front is forecast to bring some severe thunderstorms across the
Southeast through tonight before intensifying rapidly into a potent
nor’easter off the New England coast on Tuesday with heavy wet snow inland
and high winds with rain/snow near the coast…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 11, 2023

March 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:18 p.m. Saturday, March 11, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023

…Heavy snow and difficult travel conditions over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest tonight…

…Severe weather possible in the Ozarks tonight and into the Southeast on
Sunday…

…Additional rain and mountain snow for the West Coast into Monday…

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Forecast on March 9, 2023 – Leaving La Nina Say Hello to ENSO Neutral – But Maybe Not for Long

March 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory”

If you read the fine print you can see that we are still in the transition. We have left La Niña but are not fully into ENSO Neutral. The rules seem to be that when you no longer meet the criteria for La Nina or El Nino, you are in ENSO Neutral even if the atmosphere has not fully transitioned to ENSO Neutral. This makes a lot of sense since in general, the atmosphere reacts to the ocean conditions rather than the ocean reacting to the atmosphere but it is not as clear cut as what I have just stated. But typically the reaction of the atmosphere lags the change in the ocean condition and the change in the atmosphere confirms that the change in the ocean will impact weather patterns.

Some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino during or after the Summer. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

We have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to be confident that we will have an El Nino next winter. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes a very interesting post from the ENSO Blog. It is worth reading. Among other things, it discusses the situation off of Peru which might increase the chances for an El Nino but it also is a warning as to some potentially problematic weather conditions for Peru.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 10, 2023

March 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 pm. Friday, March 10, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 11 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023

…A heightened risk of excessive rainfall continues for Southern
California Friday night and renews across Central and Northern California
Saturday night into Sunday…

…Winter Storm/Blizzard Potential for the Northern Plains from Friday
evening through this weekend…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday…

…An elevated risk of excessive rainfall exists in and near the Mid-South
Saturday into Saturday night…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 9, 2023

March 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 8:05 p.m. Thursday, March 9, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Thu Mar 09 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 10 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023

…Threat of heavy rain, flooding, and heavy high-elevation snow for the
West as an Atmospheric River impacts the region…

…Moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations will spread from the
Northern/Central Plains into the Great Lakes and Appalachians
Thursday-Friday…

…Shower and thunderstorm chances with locally heavy rainfall continue
for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday;
precipitation chances increase for the East Coast Friday…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 8, 2023

March 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:48 p.m. EST Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EST Wed Mar 08 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 09 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 11 2023

…Multiple day heavy rain and flash flood threat continues across the
Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Threat of heavy rain, flooding, and heavy high-elevation snow will
increase for the West as an Atmospheric River impacts the region
Thursday…

…Moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations will spread across the
Northern/Central Plains late Wednesday into the Upper Midwest Thursday…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 7, 2023

March 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:03 p.m. Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 08 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 10 2023

…Multiple day heavy rain and flash flood threat will develop across the
Central Plains and Middle-Mississippi Valley…

…Unsettled conditions across parts of the West will continue through
mid-week with coastal rain and locally heavy snow in California…

…A couple rounds of moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations
likely for portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest through
mid-week…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 6, 2023

March 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 p.m. Monday, March 6, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Mar 06 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 07 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 09 2023

…Fast moving storm to bring a narrow stripe of light to moderate snow to
western New York, northern Pennsylvania into northwestern New Jersey late
evening into tonight…

…Multiple day heavy rain and flash flood threat to begin Tuesday night
from northern Texas into Oklahoma, extending eastward into the Mississippi
Valley…

…Unsettled conditions across parts of the West will continue through
mid-week with rain and locally heavy snow…

…Light to moderate snowfall accumulations likely for the Northern Plains
through Wednesday…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 5, 2023

March 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 p.m. Sunday, March 5, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 06 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 08 2023

..Heavy snow and pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes…

…Snow over the higher elevations over the West…

…Elevated and Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southern High
Plains…