Updated at 7:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday April 4, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Tue Apr 04 2023Valid 00Z Wed Apr 05 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 07 2023
…Severe weather possible from the western/central Gulf Coast to the
Great Lakes region Today and Wednesday……Widespread blizzard conditions expected across the northern Plains
through Wednesday night……Very warm in the East and winter-like cold in the West…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A major storm system is forecast to track north-northeast across the
Central U.S. through Wednesday night. The system is currently located over
the central and southern Plains, and will quickly become organized and
push north tonight. Widespread impacts will accompany this system
including severe weather in parts of the Central U.S. and winter storm and
blizzard conditions in the northern Plains. Weather conditions in these
areas could be life-threatening at times, and those in affected areas
should pay close attention to the local NWS Weather Forecast Office for
Advisories, Watches, and Warnings.Severe weather will develop ahead of and along the trailing cold front as
it pushes east today and Wednesday. Areas from the western and central
Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region could see severe thunderstorms. The
highest risk areas through tonight (Tuesday) will be eastern Iowa,
northern Illinois, and parts of Arkansas and Missouri where the Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms.
Potential storm hazards include strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall and flooding. The threat area will shift
east on Wednesday as the cold front progresses, and the Storm Prediction
Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the Lower
Ohio River Valley to the Great Lakes Region. The front will weaken as it
approaches the East Coast on Thursday, which will result in a lower risk
of severe thunderstorms with only isolated severe storms are expected.On the northern and western sides of the system, widespread heavy snow
totals greater than one foot are forecast from the northern Rockies
through the northern Plains. Some April snowfall records will be
challenged in the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota, and the highest totals
may locally exceed two feet. Heavy snow and strong winds will also result
in widespread blizzard conditions with near zero visibility, making travel
dangerous to impossible. Cold temperatures will feel even colder due to
the strong winds, and life-threatening wind chills below zero are forecast
in the northern Plains.Strong winds associated with the storm system also extend into the
southern Plains and Southwest, and widespread High Wind Warnings are in
effect. Sustained winds of 35-40 mph with gusts up to 50-70 mph will
remain possible across these areas through tonight. High winds and low
humidity will result in very dangerous fire weather conditions, and the
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.
Winds will gradually decrease overnight.The warm front connected to the strong low pressure system is lifting
north across the East, creating a broad warm sector ahead of the storm.
Temperatures are well above average in the East and will remain above
average for much of the region through Thursday. Widespread highs in the
70s and 80s are forecast east of the Mississippi River on Wednesday, which
is approximately 15-25 degrees above average! Temperatures in the West are
on the opposite side of the spectrum with well below average temperatures
across much of the region. Widespread below average temperatures are
forecast to continue through Wednesday, then moderate towards the end of
the work week. Temperatures will decrease across the east after the cold
front passes late Thursday and Friday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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