NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on August 10, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Tell Us How this Impacts U.S. Weather

August 11, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a “strong” El Niño event, with roughly 2 in 3 odds of an event reaching or exceeding 1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4.  Note that a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong El Niño impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024.”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. JAS stands for July/August/September. The first forecast is used to develop the Seasonal Outlook which will be issued next Thursday so that is what I am focusing on.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see The forecast does not extend beyond MAM 2024 and one does see a slight tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 11, 2023

August 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 11 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 11 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 13 2023

…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S…

…Severe thunderstorms possible today for the Midwest and Saturday for
the Ohio Valley/Northeast…

…Monsoonal showers for the Four Corners region with generally below to
near average temperatures in the West…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 10, 2023

August 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 10 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 10 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 12 2023

…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S…

…Severe thunderstorms possible today across the Carolinas while heavy
rain could impact southern New England tonight…

…Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected for the upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes from late Thursday through early Saturday…

 

Looking Back at July 2023 in the U.S. August 9, 2023

August 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

As I often do I reproduced John Bateman’s article in its entirety when I provide a review of the prior month.  I really did not have a link for his article but similar information was available at NCEI but John provides a good summary of the information so I tend to use it.

But I also like to add after John Bateman’s article, a few additional graphics namely the state ranking maps. These show how temperature and precipitation for each state ranks relative to the 139 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.    

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 9, 2023

August 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 09 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 09 2023 - 12Z Fri Aug 11 2023

...Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S....

...Severe storms expected today from eastern Kansas and Oklahoma to the
lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys...

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today across from
parts of South Texas to far southern Oklahoma..

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 8, 2023

August 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Tue Aug 08 2023 – 00Z Thu Aug 10 2023

…Very active east coast weather late afternoon into early evening Monday
with severe weather, heavy rains and flash flooding possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast…

…Heavy rains and a flash flood threat for eastern New York State into
New England Monday evening into Tuesday…

…Heavy rains and a flash flooding threat also from Monday night into
Wednesday across portions of the Central to Southern Plains, Middle to
Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys…

…Record heat to continue from the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast
and into Florida…

…Elevated fire weather risks to continue for portions of the Great
Basin, Southwest and Southern Plains…

…Cooler than average temperatures expected from the Northern Rockies,
through portions of the Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Northeast…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 7, 2023

August 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 07 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 08 2023 – 00Z Thu Aug 10 2023

…Very active east coast weather late afternoon into early evening Monday
with severe weather, heavy rains and flash flooding possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast…

…Heavy rains and a flash flood threat for eastern New York State into
New England Monday evening into Tuesday…

…Heavy rains and a flash flooding threat also from Monday night into
Wednesday across portions of the Central to Southern Plains, Middle to
Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys…

…Record heat to continue from the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast
and into Florida…

…Elevated fire weather risks to continue for portions of the Great
Basin, Southwest and Southern Plains…

…Cooler than average temperatures expected from the Northern Rockies,
through portions of the Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Northeast…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 6, 2023

August 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 05 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 07 2023

…Dangerous heat will continue for the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley but relief for some is coming beginning on
Sunday…

…Potential for severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding from the
central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest…

 

Is Global Warming Impacting the ENSO Cycle – August 5, 2023

August 5, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments

Is Global Warming impacting the ENSO Cycle? A friend of mine posted an interesting post on this on Climate.Gov and I think it is worth discussing. But we really do not have the ability at this point in time to know if this is happening and if so why.

This introduces the ENSO BLOG post on Climate.gov. Here is the link to the full post.

He provides two pieces of evidence. This is the one that resonated with me.

Presumably, we see higher highs (El Nino) and lower lows (La Nina) since 1960.  We do not seem to see higher highs and higher lows which one might expect with warmer oceans but all the values are anomalies that complicate things a lot. Actually, I am not 100% sure of exactly what this data represents. Presumably, it is the 5-month running mean minus the 1981- 2010 climatology. That is slightly different than the usual calculation of the value of the Nino 3.4 Index but it is challenging to compare current values to historical values as the temperature of the ocean surface increases.  I will copy Mike McPhaden and ask him if I have described the above correctly – stay tuned.  Trying to understand the impact of Global Warming is not simple.

The Footnotes to the post provide useful information

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 5, 2023

August 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 05 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 07 2023

…Dangerous heat will continue for the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley but relief for some is coming beginning on
Sunday…

…Potential for severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding from the
central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest…