NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook September 22, 2023 – Some Changes from what was Issued Last Month.

September 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for October. It will be updated on the last day of September.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for October and the three-month outlook for OND 2023. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature.  This tells us that November and December will be different than October to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through October/November/December of 2024. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for October and the three-month period Oct/Nov/Dec.  Small maps are provided beyond that through December of next year with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps and the changes which starting in the Spring of 2024 are significantly different from what was issued a month ago. [Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino lasting longer than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months. It seems to me that NOAA was showing some of these as El Nino months last month but has changed them to ENSO Neutral months in what they issued on September 21, 2023.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 22, 2023

September 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Valid 00Z Sat Sep 23 2023 – 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023

…Tropical Storm Ophelia is forecast to make landfall over eastern North
Carolina early on Saturday, bringing squally heavy rain, threat of flash
flooding farther inland, and storm surge to coastal communities up the
Mid-Atlantic states…

…Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions
of the central U.S., including chances for excessive rainfall…

…Summer heat continues across portions of the southern Plains, while
much cooler temperatures begin to moderate throughout the Intermountain
West and northern Rockies…

cone graphic

 

[Key Messages]

 

Crop Report September 21, 2023 – Still Looking Good

September 21, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the September 19, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 17, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but I was not able to publish it last night but I did so this evening.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop. We are starting to have Production information as well as Progress Reports and this information is included in the article.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at what finally was the impact of former Hurricane Lee

No on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 21, 2023

September 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 21 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 23 2023

…Below-normal temperatures expected across much of the western U.S.,
with widespread precipitation over the northern Intermountain West and
Rockies…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall expected for
portions of the northern & southern Plains…

…Gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf likely for portions of the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic Friday and into the weekend..

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 20, 2023

September 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 20 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023 – 12Z Fri Sep 22 2023

…Much cooler, Fall-like temperatures and locally heavy rainfall for the
West…

…Above average heat forecast from the Plains to the Great Lakes through
Thursday…

…Chances for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue for the
Southern Plains…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 19, 2023

September 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 19 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 19 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023

…Heavy rain and severe storm chances for parts of the Southern Plains on
Tuesday…

…Above average heat forecast for the Central U.S. through mid-week…

…Shower and storm chances as well as some chilly Fall temperatures begin
to spread across the West mid-week…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 18, 2023

September 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 18 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023

…Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding possible for New England
Monday…

…Heavy rain and severe storm chances return to parts of the Southern
Plains on Tuesday…

…Hot late Summer temperatures for the heartland to start the week…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 17, 2023

September 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 18 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 20 2023

…Shower and storm chances along the East Coast confine to New England on
Monday…

…Unsettled weather and severe storm chances return to parts of the
Southern Plains on Tuesday…

…Much above average high temperatures spread from the Northern Rockies
to the Northern Plains early this week…

Looking Back at the Global Climate in August 2023 – This past August was the Warmest August on Record. But it was More Than That – September 16, 2023

September 16, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Every month, John Bateman sends me a nice email. Usually, he sends me two: one about the U.S. and one about the world.  I do not recall receiving an email from him on the U.S. but I published my own article on August in the U.S. and you can find it HERE. Yesterday he sent me the email for the world. Since they are emails, I usually can not provide a link to what he sent me. He is a spokesperson (not sure that is the right description of his job) for NOAA both NCEI and other parts of NOAA.  For this monthly article, all of the information in his email comes from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information so the information he includes in his email and much more can be found HERE. I published his article in full but included two additional graphics from NCEI namely the historical year by year record and the map of important events.

Obviously the headline this month is that August has been the warmest August since this data has been collected.  And it was also the fifth consequtive month of record ocean surface temperatures.

 

This is the record of August land and ocean temperature anomalies and this Augugust appears to have set a new record high. It is just speculation on my part but I think it is the stepwise rise in temperature we get with an El Nino. But some believe that other factors were a larger contributor to this in August and also in July than simply the increase in greenhouse gases. They may be correct in that many factors impact temperature and precipitation. In this article, we report what happened rather than try to explain why it happened. “Attribution” is always very complex.

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 16, 2023 – Hurricane Lee Arrives

September 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is now Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee rather than Hurricane Lee with the change occurring right after I published so I could not change the title of the article.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 16 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 16 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023

…Tropical storm conditions for coastal New England today as Lee tracks
by…

…Shower and storm chances this weekend from the Southern Plains to the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic with some locally heavy rainfall possible…

…Much above average highs expected for the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies this weekend with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather Saturday…

cone graphic

[Key Messages]