Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 22, 2023

October 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 22 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 24 2023

…Cool Sunday for the Northeast with a freeze possible in the Upper Ohio
Valley Monday morning…

…Much above average high temperatures continue for much of the central
and western U.S…

…Frontal system brings precipitation chances inland from the West Coast
to the Northern Rockies/Plains…

cone graphic

cone graphic

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Weather Forecast – October 21, 2023

October 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms further development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal winter and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. The JAMSTEC discussion does not address it but the maps show the U.S. being an area that has a lot of area that is not warmer than Climatology which I interpret as a fairly cold winter but surprisingly dry in the Southwest.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on October 20, 2023 which is when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of October 1, 2023. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook was based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We do not have a three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have three forecasts but the first covers NDJ and the second covers DJF so they are just a month apart. This is because JAMSTEC prefers to work with the Meteorological Seasons so we have Winter and Spring and the first map which is one month of Autumn with two months of winter so they are very similar.

One might question their winter forecast for the Southwest but it is somewhat consistent with the below.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in all three time periods. It seems to be stronger in the 1st and 2nd time periods which overlap a lot. The warmest water shifts was bit west in the third period exhibiting some Modoki characteristics.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 21, 2023

October 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
WS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 21 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 23 2023

…Showers and storms expected from the Great Lakes into the Northeast
Saturday, with some locally heavy rainfall possible in New England…

…Much above average temperatures continue this weekend for portions of
the central and western U.S…

…Increasing precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest to the
Northern Rockies Sunday…

cone graphic

cone graphic

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook October 19, 2023 – Reduction in Drought

October 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for November. It will be updated on the last day of October.

 

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for November and the three-month outlook for NDJ 2023-2024. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature and also to some extent precipitation.  This tells us that December and January will be different than November to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through November/December/January of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for November and the three-month period Nov/Dec/Jan.  Small maps are provided beyond that through January of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps.[Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino being stronger than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 20, 2023

October 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 20 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023

…Storm system to bring showers and thunderstorms to the East into the
weekend…

…Much above average, record-tying/breaking warmth for much of the
central-western U.S…

cone graphic

cone graphic

Crop Report October 19, 2023 – More Corn was Planted and More Corn was Harvested.

October 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 17, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 15, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It is back to looking like an average crop or perhaps even a bit less than average. But there is lots of corn which is usually more profitable than soybeans.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a report on production forecasts. It is a long report and we show the Table of Contents, a summary of key points, and the link to the full report.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze and other warnings.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 19, 2023

October 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 19 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023

…Increasingly unsettled weather is in store for the eastern U.S. over
the next few days..

…High temperatures will challenge daily records across numerous locations`
over the western U.S. today, spreading into Texas by Friday and into
Saturday…

cone graphic

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 18, 2023

October 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 18 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023

…An Alberta clipper will spread gusty winds farther south into the
central Plains today as rain moves across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest…

…Rain is expected for the Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday as
scattered thunderstorms develop and expand across the Mid-South into the
Southeast…

…A warming trend in the western U.S. will lead to high temperatures
challenging daily records by Thursday…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 17, 2023

October 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 17 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023

…An Alberta clipper will bring very gusty winds and a round of rain
across the northern Plains later today and Wednesday, spreading into the
Great Lakes Wednesday night and early Thursday…

…A warming trend is in store for the eastern half of the country as an
expansive cool airmass moderates…

…Warm and dry air across much of the western U.S. will spread into the
Plains but rainy conditions remain over the Pacific Northwest…

Looking back at September for the United States October 16, 2023 – There is Cause for Concern

October 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about September 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have. When I was working on this article Friday night the NOAA website for the state ranking was not working correctly and I thought I would not be able to include the state rankings but I was able to fiddle with the url and get it to provide me with the images I wanted. Sometimes the weekly USDA crop bulletin also includes those images. At any rate, I was able to include those images in the article so I think readers may find it interesting.

This is the North America Temperature trend not specific to the U.S. but this is what I was able to find.  You do see that September was a big increase over the trend, there is a regression line in this graphic. The slope is 1.31C per century. That is quite a bit. For comparison, I am showing below the Global Trend.  The full report on Global September Weather can be accessed HERE.

 

Not surprisingly the global trend is smoother since it averages in multiple parts of Earth. But in both cases, the question is why the steep rise started perhaps in 1980 Globally but showed up more in North America in perhaps 1997 when we had the MegaNino.  That seems to be the time the Pacific Decadal Oscillation changed phase to PDO Neg.