ENSO Blog: “How does El Niño influence winter precipitation over the United States?” December 5, 2023

December 5, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments

You can read this post on the ENSO Blog HERE but you might find it convenient to read it here.

It is a great article and very worthwhile reading.

I have not added any comments to it in the body of this article. Any comments I have are here in the lede.

A. I question some of the graphics. re the La Nina part of the graphic since -1 is not stronger than -2

B. I was shocked at how poor the performance of the models is.  I think how much of a coat our animals grow may be a better predictor.

It is an excellent article, you should read it.

Perhaps I should publish my analysis tool which I used to do. But I would have to update it and that is a lot like work. I think I have the information to do the analysis now

Maps of U.S. precipitation

Please click below to read the full article and the comments to the article that show up as footnotes.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 5, 2023

December 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 4, 2023

December 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 3, 2023

December 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.

NCA5: Drought and Climate Change in 10 Maps – December 2, 2023

December 2, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments

I am just providing a report from NCA5. I am providing the full report but you can access it HERE and then there will be live links that you can click on for additional information.  There is a lot more in that report than these 10 Maps but they feature these 10 Maps as sort of a summary of the key points in that report. I have added some comments to each map to perhaps help interpret these 10 Maps but I have not read the full report so I may not understand enough to fully interpret them. But I will do my best. It appears to me that this set of 10 maps is intended to entice people to read the chapter or chapters where the material is presented in more depth.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 2, 2023

December 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.

NOAA Updates its December 2023 Weather Outlook on November 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

December 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Slightly modified at 6 pm EST December 1, 2023, to add additional clarity to the author’s comments.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for December for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the December Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for December is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for December and the Mid-Month Outlook for December. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for December and the three-month outlook DJF 2023 – 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for December 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for December.

There have been some significant changes especially related to Temperature. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. We are not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) has moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. But it takes time for the impacts of an El Nino to be fully felt and there are conflicting factors. The sample size of very strong El Nino’s is very small so this complicates the forecasting process. The probability that his El Nino will record as being historically strong is less than 50% but well above zero. The atmosphere has not responded to the extent one might expect by just looking at the Nino 3.4 Index. The El Ninos with the highest level of the Nino 3.4 Index are not always the wettest but sometimes are. So we are dealing with a fair amount of uncertainty.  You can track the changes in our Daily Weather Article.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for December and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.  The three-month map was issued on November 16, 2023.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 1, 2023

December 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 30, 2023

November 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 29, 2023

November 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S.  we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page.  But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.