NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on March 21, 2024 – Hints of a Possibly Very Strong La Nina Coming: Published March 22, 2024

March 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 11 p.m. EDT March 22, 2024. Three additional graphics were added plus some additional commentary.

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is very challenging. The potential for a very strong La Nina is discussed but it is not the likely scenario at this point in time. But it seems that the longer-term outlook now factors in both drier conditions in certain parts of the U.S. and wetter conditions on the East Coast and Southeast this summer.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for April.

It will be updated on the last day of March

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different, especially with regard to temperature.  This tells us that May and June will be different than April to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through April/May/June of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for April and the three-month period Apr/May/June.  Small maps are provided beyond that through Apr/May/June of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article.  For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 22, 2024

March 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 22 2024 – 12Z Sun Mar 24 2024

…Heavy snow likely for portions of the Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast…

…A wet weekend ahead for the East and West Coasts…

…Significant Winter Storm likely across the Northern Plains and into the
Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week…

A developing low pressure system will produce snow showers across parts of
the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. This same system will shift into
the Ohio Valley this evening and dump a swath of heavy snow from downwind
areas of Lake Ontario into much of central/northern New England. Snowfall
totals of 6-12 inches are expected by Sunday morning for those areas.

A second system will track across the Gulf Coast and dump showers and
thunderstorms over the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic today/tonight.
Heavy rainfall within scattered to isolated thunderstorms will spread
across the Carolina coast and up the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast urban
corridor where 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible with isolated higher
amounts. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
(level 2/4) is in effect from southern Maryland and the DC Metro area up
the coast through Philly, NYC and into Boston’s metro on Saturday.

A third system in the Gulf of Mexico will propagate toward the Straits of
Florida where it will stall out later today. Anomalous moisture from the
subtropical Pacific will join with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to
produce heavy to Excessive Rainfall as well as strong to severe
thunderstorms over extreme southern portions of Florida this afternoon and
evening. Thus, Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) and Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) are in effect for this area.

Elsewhere, a deep low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the
West this weekend. Heavy rain is likely to focus over coastal areas of
northern California into southern Oregon, while heavy snow develops over
the northern/central Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous. Anywhere between 2-4
feet of snow are likely for those areas with isolated higher amounts
possible. This system will weaken as it moves inland and spreads snow
showers across the Rockies on Saturday. By Sunday, this system will begin
to redevelop over the Front Range into a significant Winter Storm.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 21, 2024

March 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Mar 21 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024 – 12Z Sat Mar 23 2024

…Gusty winds and snow showers linger across Maine today as the next
winter storm approaches northern New England by Saturday…

…Swath of light to moderate snow spreads from the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes by Friday; strong winter storm expected this weekend…

…Thunderstorms and heavy rain return to the Gulf Coast today before
unsettled weather shifts to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic…

Winter is set to make a strong return over the next several days across
the Northern Tier as multiple rounds of potentially heavy snow impact
parts of the Nation. A potent storm system rapidly strengthening over
eastern Maine is already producing locally heavy snow throughout The Pine
Tree State. Additional periods of snow can be expected through this
evening, as well as gusty winds associated with the developing tight
pressure gradient. The March (weather) madness is forecast to continue by
late Friday into Saturday as the next winter storm approaches the Interior
Northeast and New England. Snowfall probabilities for at least 8 inches of
snow are high (greater than 70%) throughout northern Vermont, New
Hampshire, and much of interior Maine. Additionally, there exists modest
probabilities (50-70%) for over a foot of snow in these regions. Residents
and visitors are advised to remain weather aware and plan ahead if
traveling between Friday night and Saturday in this part of the country
due to the possibility of treacherous travel.

Snow is also anticipated to produce impacts from the northern Rockies and
northern Plains to the Great Lakes, with two systems impacting the region.
The first system is currently spreading light to moderate snow from
northeast Montana to the Dakotas and is expected to expand into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. Outside of the higher terrain of
northwest Montana, the heaviest amounts are expected to stretch from
southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota towards southern
Wisconsin and central Michigan. More specifically, probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow are highest throughout parts of Wisconsin and
Michigan. However, snowfall accumulation could be limited to grassy
surfaces due to the increasing March sun angle and snow falling during the
daylight hours. In case this round of snow wasn’t enough, a separate
system is forecast right on the heels of the first and expected to begin
spreading snowfall throughout the Northern Plains on Saturday. This storm
will be a part of a larger upper level trough entering the West Coast on
Friday and spreading precipitation inland. Heavy snow is likely throughout
the Sierra and high elevations of the Intermountain West, central and
northern Rockies. Additional heavy snow and winter weather impacts will
continue into early next week across much of the northern Plains.

More spring-like weather is forecast throughout the Gulf Coast today as
showers and thunderstorms develop along a forming frontal boundary over
the Texas coastline as well as underneath an upper low over the southern
Plains. A few storms could turn severe across parts of Texas and southwest
Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms across southeast Texas in order to highlight
the potential for large hail, strong wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.
Additionally, heavy rain could lead to isolated flooding concerns for
parts of the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast today. This system and
associated storminess are forecast to slide east on Friday towards the
Southeast and southern Florida. The greatest impacts are expected across
South Florida, where a few storms could become severe and heavy rain could
lead to urban flooding impacts. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall has been issued for the Gold Coast. By Saturday, moisture surging
northward along a frontal boundary is expected to provide focus for heavy
rain along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastline, with the potential
for flash flooding where heavier rainfall occurs.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 20, 2024

March 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 20 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 22 2024

…Snow showers and gusty winds forecast throughout the Northeast over the
next few days…

…Light to moderate snow spreads from the northern Plains to the Great
Lakes by Friday…

…Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the Southern Plains and Gulf
Coast…

A rapidly deepening low pressure system maturing over eastern Maine early
Thursday is anticipated to produce periods of snow across the Interior
Northeast and New England, while also reinforcing lake effect snow showers
in its wake. High probabilities (80-90%) for at least 4 inches of snow
exist across much of northern and central Maine, with lower probabilities
extending into northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Upstate New York.
Gusty westerly winds up to 50 mph are also possible across parts of
Vermont and Maine on Thursday as the potent storm system creates a tight
pressure gradient over the Northeast. Additionally, the cold and dry
airmass in place combined with gusty winds will create fire weather danger
throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Red Flag Warnings have been issued across
much of Virginia.

A separate winter storm is anticipated to produce a swath of snow between
the northern Plains and Great Lakes by the end of the week, with snow
beginning today across the northern High Plains. A wave of low pressure
developing over a lingering stationary front will help trigger the
developing precipitation shield and shift snowfall eastward by Thursday
night. High probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow exist across
northwest Montana, with medium to high probabilities (40-80%) extending
from north-central Montana to central Minnesota, including southern South
Dakota. Greater chances for moderate to heavy snow shifts to the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday, where there is the potential for up to
10-12 inches of snow. Residents should remain weather aware and up to date
with the latest forecast as uncertainty remains regarding the exact
location of heavy snowbands.

Elsewhere, unsettled weather is set to return to the southern Plains, Gulf
Coast, and parts of the West Coast. An upper low lingering over the
Southwest is expected to finally eject into the southern Plains tonight
and spark showers and thunderstorm over portions of Oklahoma and Texas. By
Thursday, rain could become heavy enough along the western Gulf Coast and
southeast Texas to produce isolated flooding concerns. This system is
forecast to progress eastward into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, spreading
showers and thunderstorms along the entire Gulf Coast, as well as
eventually Florida and the Southeast by late Friday. However, both the
severe and flooding threat associated with this system remain marginal.
For the West Coast, light to moderate rain is expected to move inland
across northern California and the coastal Midwest on Friday. As the axis
of precipitation along a frontal boundary intersects the Sierra on Friday
night, heavy snow is possible throughout the mountainous terrain.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 19, 2024

March 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Mar 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024 – 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024

…Lake effect snow continues across the Great Lakes before a developing
low pressure system spreads snowfall east into northern New England on
Wednesday…

…Light to moderate snow enters the northern Plains midweek and pushes
into the Upper Midwest on Thursday…

…Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the southern Plains and
western Gulf Coast…

Cold northwest flow crossing over relatively warm lake waters will lead to
additional lake effect snow showers today, which will be further enhanced
as a low pressure system crosses from southern Ontario, Canada towards
Maine by early Thursday. Greatest probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow exist across the eastern U.P. of Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau of
western New York. As the low pressure system deepens over eastern Maine on
Thursday, additional snowfall is expected to develop just to its northwest
throughout northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Medium
probabilities (40-70%) for at least 6 inches of snow is currently depicted
across this region. Gusty winds and below average temperatures are
forecast in the system’s wake, with highs only expected to reach into the
30s and 40s throughout the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.

Snow potential also returns to the northern Plains and northern Rockies on
Wednesday due to the combination of a nearby stationary front and
favorable jet stream dynamics. Far northwest Montana and the Yellowstone
region currently have the best chances for accumulating snow to add up to
over 4 inches. By Thursday, a developing low pressure system along the
aforementioned stationary front is anticipated to progress eastward across
the northern Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. This will spread light
to moderate snow from parts of the Dakotas to central/southern Minnesota,
far northern Iowa, and Wisconsin. Uncertainty remains on exactly where the
heaviest snowbands may set up, but residents should remain weather aware
and prepare for potentially difficult travel across the Upper Midwest
between Thursday night and Friday morning.

For the southern Plains, rain and thunderstorm chances return on Wednesday
as an upper low lingering over the Southwest finally ejects eastward. A
few isolated thunderstorms could turn severe over western Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle, as well as south-central Texas. By Thursday, heavy rain
may develop along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, which could lead to
isolated flooding concerns.

As far as the temperature highlights for the short term time period, a
frost/freeze threat remains this morning from the Lower Mississippi Valley
to the Southeast as lows dip into the 20s and 30s. This cold snap is
forecast to be short-lived as temperatures warm to near average by
Thursday across the South. Meanwhile, above average temperatures are
expected today across the central Plains and Northwest. Afternoon highs
could break daily temperature records throughout the northern Great Basin
as thermometer readings soar into the 70s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 18, 2024

March 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024 – 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024

…A few rounds of lake effect snow forecast downwind of the Great Lakes
over the next few days...

…Cold morning temperatures bring a frost/freeze risk to parts of the
Mid-South and Southeast on Tuesday…

…Record breaking warmth continues across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Great Basin…

The new workweek will start off by featuring a weather pattern consisting
of high pressure stretching southward from the northern Plains to the Gulf
Coast. As a result, continuous cold northwest flow will create lake effect
snow chances throughout the Great Lakes today before the next clipper
system swings over the region and into northern New England by early
Wednesday. Accumulating snow is expected across the typical snow-belts
downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, as well as into northern Michigan,
where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow showers could
expand into the Interior Northeast and northern New England on Wednesday
as the aforementioned clipper system swings eastward, with the potential
for accumulating snowfall particularly in the elevated terrain.

This push of cold air underneath and just east of the high pressure
settling over the Deep South on Tuesday will allow for subfreezing
temperatures to extend as far south as the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Frost/freeze conditions could damage and/or kill any
unprotected sensitive vegetation, prompting Freeze Watches and Warnings to
extend from Arkansas to the Carolinas. This cold isn’t anticipated to be
long-lived as temperatures gradually warm by midweek.

Conversely, well above average spring warmth is expected to continue
throughout the Northwest through Tuesday with highs reaching into the 70s.
These temperatures could threaten daily record highs today in Portland, OR
and Spokane, WA. One final day of summer-like warmth is also expected in
southern Florida today ahead of a cold front as highs approach 90 degrees.
This front may spark thunderstorms that could contain isolated hail and
damaging winds for parts of the Florida Peninsula. Lastly, light shower
activity is forecast to continue across southern Texas, as well as
scattered rain and mountain snow showers through the Southwest over the
next few days as an upper level low meanders over the region.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 17, 2024

March 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 17 2024 – 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024

…Locally heavy snow continues across the Southern Rockies today, while
lake effect snow impacts the Great Lakes region through early this week…

…Strong cold front ushers in frost/freeze potential throughout the
Southeast by Tuesday…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast across the Gulf Coast
States this St. Patrick’s Day…

Even as the Spring Equinox approaches this Tuesday, winter weather
continues to impact parts of the Nation with localized heavy snow. The
same closed upper low that has lingered over the Southwest over the last
few days is expected to continue producing areas of heavy mountain snow
throughout the Southern Rockies and Four Corners region today before the
system weakens and precipitation becomes widely scattered. The heaviest
remaining snow is expected over the mountainous terrain of New Mexico,
which could lead to treacherous travel at times. Meanwhile, a potent low
pressure system crossing from southern Ontario to southern Quebec, Canada
today will aid in lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes through
early this week. The cold airmass advecting from the northwest across the
relatively warm lakes will allow for numerous snow showers and localized
areas of moderate to heavy snow. Specifically, the U.P. of Michigan and
Tug Hill Plateau of western New York could see several inches of
accumulation snow. Snowfall chances also extend to upslope portions of the
central Appalachians on Monday and Tuesday.

As a cold front pushes south and clears the Southeast by Monday, much
colder temperatures and high pressure will build in its wake. Low
temperatures are forecast to dip into the 20s and 30s from the Midwest to
the Tennessee Valley on Monday, prior to this cold sinking into the
Mid-South and Southeast on Tuesday. Vegetation in these regions are
susceptible to frost/freeze damage given the relatively mild late winter
temperatures, thus any unprotected sensitive plants could be damaged or
killed. Meanwhile, warm temperatures will remain locked in place over the
Pacific Northwest, where highs into the low 70s are forecast and
anticipated to spread into the northern High Plains by Monday.

One more day of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today along
the Gulf Coast as a lingering frontal boundary focuses rainfall chances.
Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns from southeast Texas to
southern Louisiana due to saturated soils from recent rainfall. A Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. A few isolated
severe thunderstorms could also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region as
well this St. Patrick’s Day.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Looking Back at February 2024 Weather for the U.S. and the World – Posted on March 16, 2024

March 16, 2024Posted inweather2 Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide two links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

I start with the trends of February Temperature looking at first CONUS, then all of North America and then the World both land and water.

This is the temperature trend for CONUS. There was a decrease for February in 2024 as compared to February in 2023. I show all the data for February starting with 1895.

This is the temperature trend for North America. It covers a larger geographical area but I find it easier to read.

The temperature for the world, land and water hit a new record.

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 16, 2024

March 16, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 16 2024 – 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024

…Heavy mountain snow impacts the Four Corners and Southern Rockies this
weekend…

…Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible across southern Texas and
along the Gulf Coast…

…Mild weather continues across the Pacific Northwest and East Coast…

The lingering closed upper low located over the Desert Southwest is
forecast to remain mostly stationary this weekend and produce the
continued threat of heavy mountain snow from the Four Corners region to
the Southern Rockies. In particular, the high terrain of central/southern
Utah as well as the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Colorado
and New Mexico can expect treacherous conditions due to heavy snow.
Additional snowfall accumulations over a foot are expected for parts of
the Southern Rockies through Monday, with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories remaining in effect.

Meanwhile, a stalling cold front extending from the Southeast to southern
Texas will lead to at least a few more days of storminess for the Lone
Star State and remaining Gulf Coast region. The greatest severe weather
threat exists today across south-central Texas and the Middle Texas Coast,
where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes are possible within the strongest storms. Intense rainfall rates
falling over saturated ground may also lead to flash flooding and standing
water in urban areas throughout similar portions of Texas and stretching
into far southwest Louisiana. By Sunday, shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected to stretch along most of the Gulf Coast, with isolated to
scattered chances for severe weather and flash flooding. Given recent
rainfall, parts of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas have been
designated as having a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.

The other notable system to impact the CONUS through early next week is
forecast to clip the Great Lakes and northern New England, producing
mostly light rain and snow showers as well as gusty winds and cooler
temperatures. Locally heavy snow is possible downwind of the Great Lakes
on Sunday and Monday. Before the chilly and below average airmass
progresses into the eastern third of the Nation on Monday, mild afternoon
temperatures into the 60s and 70s can be expected this weekend in the
East. More importantly, the cold airmass on the way will contain a morning
frost/freeze threat on Monday throughout the Midwest and Ohio Valley as
lows dip into the 20s and 30s.

Upper riding anchored over the Northwest will continue the warm and dry
pattern throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin,
expanding into the northern High Plains on Monday. Highs into the 60s and
70s are forecast, which could break a few daily high temperature records.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on March 14, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory/La Nina Watch Continues. Not Much Change on the Timing – Published March 15, 2024

March 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory La Nino Watch”

The exact timing of the transition is not very clear which will impact the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.

We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.

 

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

 

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 .  While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year.  Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024.  Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.  The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña.  Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).”

We now provide additional details.  The level of uncertainty with respect to how this El Nino will play out has not changed very much.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. FMA stands for February/March/April.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.  This kind of bar chart is not very good at showing uncertainty.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are not very different.
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