Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Apr 06 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024…Winter Storm to develop over the northern High Plains and nearby
foothills of the Rockies with high winds possible later today into
Sunday……Severe thunderstorms possible later today across the central Plains,
shifting toward the Mississippi Valley on Sunday……High winds will impact much of the High Plains today, reaching into the
Great Plains on Sunday……Critical Fire Weather Risk continues over Central/Southern High
Plains……Warm weekend ahead for Central U.S.; East and West Coasts remain below
average…A low pressure system currently intensifying over the central High Plains
will be the focus of high winds, severe thunderstorms, and snow across the
mid-section of the country for the remainder of the weekend. The
highly-amplified upper trough that has ushered a fresh dose of cold air
into much of the western U.S. will continue to support mountain snow today
from the Great Basin to the Four Corners and up across the northern and
central Rockies. Meanwhile, the tight pressure gradient ahead of a potent
cold front will bring high winds across much of the central and southern
High Plains today. As the low pressure system intensifies further over
the central High Plains, the focus of the snow will gradually lift toward
the northern High Plains by tonight ahead of a nearly stationary front.
The snow is expected to become heavy from near the foothills of the
northern Rockies to the northern High Plains later today and into Sunday.
Anywhere between 6-12 inches of snow is possible with 1-2 feet more likely
at higher elevations (Big Horns, Shirley, Laramie Mountains). The winds
just behind the intense low pressure center will likely become very strong
and gusty, possibly resulting in blizzard conditions in these areas. The
strongest winds could occur near the foothills of northern Colorado where
winds could be damaging at times from Saturday night into early Sunday.
Farther south, the persistently dry downslope winds from the Rockies will
keep fire danger from critical to locally extreme levels across the
central to southern High Plains through the next couple of days.On the warm side of the system, severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the intensifying low pressure system and the associated potent cold front
across the central Plains, mainly later today and into early on Sunday.
Sunday night should see the heavy snow and high winds to begin winding
down across the northern High Plains as the low pressure system weakens
and slowly moves farther to the east. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand farther east into the upper Midwest and farther south
into the Mississippi Valley along the cold front.Meanwhile, more snow showers are expected to continue today from the
central Appalachians up through the lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England as the circulation of a huge nor’easter will be slow
to exit into the Atlantic. An additional few inches of new snow with
locally up to 6 inches is possible across northern New England today
before sunshine returns on Sunday. High temperatures will remain below
average along the East Coast into Monday morning thanks to the cloudiness.
Meanhwile, a pronounced ridge will support warmer than average
temperatures across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this weekend.
In contrast, northern New England will wake up to temperatures in the 20s
Monday morning with clearing skies while southern Texas will be under
considerable cloudiness prior to the total solar eclipse.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024…Wet snow lingers over northern New England into Saturday…
…Widespread mountain snow moves across the interior western U.S…
…High Winds expected to impact the Four Corners today, spreading across
the Rockies and High Plains on Saturday, reaching into the central Plains
by Sunday……Severe thunderstorms possible over the central Plains later on Saturday
into early Sunday……Critical Fire Risk for central/southern High Plains through this
weekend…
The nor’easter that has been impacting New England with heavy snow inland
and strong winds near the coast will gradually weaken but will take its
time exiting into the Atlantic. Widespread wet snow mixed with rain over
the lower elevations can be expected to continue through today before
becoming more scattered on Saturday. 4-8 inches of new snow may still
accumulate as the parent low lingers nearby. The snow is expected to
taper off to snow showers by Sunday morning as the huge circulation of the
system finally moves farther away into the Atlantic.Meanwhile, a rather dynamic upper trough along with the associated surface
low pressure system are pushing into the interior western U.S. This
system will bring widespread mountain snow across the Great Basin today,
followed by the northern and central Rockies on Saturday. The potent cold
front trailing south from the low pressure center will likely impact the
Four Corners states with high winds today into tonight as the front
approaches and forcefully passes through the region.
By Saturday, this system will consolidate and quickly intensify as it
emerges over the Front Range. High winds, warm weather and low dew points
will support a critical fire danger over parts of the central and southern
High Plains through at least Sunday. Winds could become especially strong
and potentially damaging near the foothills of the central Rockies
Saturday night into early Sunday right behind the intensifying low
pressure system. Wind-driven rain is forecast to quickly expand across
the central Plains Saturday night into early Sunday around the rapidly
intensifying system, with severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
possible just ahead of the low center.With a huge omega upper-level blocking pattern setting up across the U.S.
through the weekend, below average temperatures are expected across the
West and East while above average temperatures will remain over the
central U.S.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 04 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024…Heavy snow over Upstate New York, Northern New England, the Sierra
Nevada Mountains, and Central Appalachians on Thursday……Moderate to heavy snow over the Northern Intermountain Region on
Friday……Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Ohio Valley…A deep storm over the Great Lakes and the Northeast will slowly move off
the Northeast Coast by Saturday. The system will produce heavy, wet snow
over north-central New England and northeast New York and later spread
north through Maine on Thursday. Snowfall rates then decrease, but snow
continues over Northern New England into Friday. Snowfall accumulations of
1-2 feet are 60 to 70 % likelihood for much of Northern New England and
the northeast part of the Adirondacks. Furthermore, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians.The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind. The
combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will lead to dangerous
travel conditions, with whiteout conditions and snow-covered roads. The
combination of wet snow, high snow load, and strong wind gusts could also
result in tree damage and power outages.Moreover, prolonged onshore winds will continue through Thursday,
resulting in moderate coastal flooding for portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coast. Impacts include widespread
roadway flooding, coastal and bayside flooding, impassable roads, and some
damage to vulnerable structures. Snow will linger over the Central
Appalachians through late Friday night, while the snow will linger over
parts of the Northeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The temperatures
will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the Ohio Valley.
Also, showers and thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley through northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.Meanwhile, a front over the Northern High Plains, Great Basin, and
Southern California will move eastward to the Northern/Central/Southern
High Plains by Saturday. The system will create coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Intermountain Region and Northern California on Thursday morning,
expanding into Central/Southern California Thursday evening into Friday.
Heavy snow will develop over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Thursday. The
snow will continue over the Northwest through Saturday. Moderate to heavy
snow will develop over the Northern Intermountain Region on Friday. The
snow will linger over the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Saturday, while
the snow moves into the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern
Rockies Friday evening into Saturday.
| The above shows that the current El Nino which is winding down has been pretty close to what would be expected from a typical El Nino. It also shows how both the typical El Nino and the current El Nino compare to Normal or Climatology. You can easily see the differences. The analysis is for the Meteorological Winter months of December through February. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 03 2024Valid 12Z Wed Apr 03 2024 – 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024
…Heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes, Upstate New York, and Northern
New England on Wednesday; Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and
Central Appalachians on Thursday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England on Wednesday……There is a Sight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Southeast Coast and Florida peninsula on
Wednesday…A deep storm over the Great Lakes will move southeastward to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening and northeastward to the Gulf of
Maine by Friday. The system will produce a late-season winter storm across
portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast from Wednesday into Friday.
The western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan is forecast to
receive heavy snow through Wednesday evening. Snowfall accumulations of as
much as 1 to 2 feet are expected in parts of northern Wisconsin and the
western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.The same storm will produce Northeast snow and wind Wednesday through
Friday. Heavy, wet snow and some sleet will spread into the Northeast on
Wednesday and continue into Friday. Portions of northern New York and
Northern New England will likely see significant snow accumulations of
over 12 inches.The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind, and
the combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will lead to dangerous
travel conditions, with whiteout conditions and snow-covered roads. The
combination of wet snow, high snow load, and strong wind gusts could also
result in tree damage and power outages. On Thursday, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians.Furthermore, prolonged onshore winds late Wednesday and continuing through
Thursday will result in moderate coastal flooding for portions of the
Northeast Coast. Impacts include widespread roadway flooding, coastal and
bayside flooding, impassable roads, and some damage to vulnerable
structures.Moreover, along the associated front extending from the Lower Great Lakes
to the Central Appalachians southward to the Central Gulf Coast will move
off most of the East Coast overnight Wednesday. The boundary will aid in
producing showers, and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Coast to the Southeast Coast and Florida peninsula through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Southern New England through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The threat of severe
thunderstorms and excessive rainfall ends on Thursday.Meanwhile, a front moving inland over the Pacific Northwest into Northern
California will move eastward to the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin
and Southwest by Friday. On Wednesday, the system will create coastal rain
and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/ Northern
Intermountain Region, moving inland to the Northern Intermountain Region,
Great Basin, and Northern California overnight. The snow levels will lower
after the front passes by over the Northwest. The coast/lower elevation
rain and higher elevation snow will continue over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region through Friday.On Thursday, rain and higher-elevation snow will move into Central
California and expand into the Great Basin. Overnight Thursday, rain will
move into Southern California. Heavy snow will develop over the Sierra
Nevada Mountains on Thursday into Friday.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 02 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 02 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024…Heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday and Wednesday; Heavy snow over Upstate New York and Northern New
England on Wednesday……There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valleys on Tuesday and two areas of Slight Risk over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida peninsula on Wednesday……There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Appalachians on Tuesday…A deep storm over the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will move to
Southern New England by Thursday. The system will produce a large,
long-duration winter storm, producing gusty winds and late-season heavy
snow across portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast from Tuesday
into Friday. The Upper Great Lakes are forecast to receive heavy snow.
Heavy snow will have a 60 to 70 percent likelihood of developing over
Wisconsin by Tuesday evening and expanding into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan overnight Tuesday. Snow will continue over much of the region
through Wednesday, with additional heavy snow across the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan, before ending on Thursday.The same storm will produce Northeast snow and wind Wednesday-Friday.
Secondary low-pressure development along the Mid-Atlantic coast will have
a 60 to 70 percent likelihood of bringing heavy, wet snow and some sleet
to the Northeast Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Significant snow
accumulations are likely over Upstate New York and Northern New England.
The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind, and
the combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will create a 60 to 70
percent likelihood of hazardous travel due to low visibility and
snow-covered roads. The wet snow and high snow load may also damage trees
and impact infrastructure.Moreover, along the associated front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to
the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys, showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased
threat of EF2 � EF5 tornados over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower
Mississippi Valleys. Additionally, there is an increased threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Ohio
Valley and a small portion of the Tennessee Valley. Further, there is an
increased threat of two-inch or greater hail over parts of the Ohio Valley.The storms will also produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Appalachians through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over two areas as the front
moves across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the Florida peninsula
from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.However, the threat of excessive rainfall will be limited to a Marginal
Risk over parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England from
Wednesday through Thursday morning.Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest by late Tuesday afternoon and move eastward to the
Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and Southern California by Thursday.
The system will create coastal rain and higher-elevation snow moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and Northern
California overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for April and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for April for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.
The article includes the Drought Outlook for April. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (AMJ) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the April Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the amount of water in the snowpack waiting to be released in the Spring. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World. We also include a very interesting CLIMAS Discussion.
The best way to understand the updated outlook for April is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.
| There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for April. |
| The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology. |
| The three-month map was issued on March 21, 2024. One expects some changes 10 days later. But the changes to both maps are fairly dramatic. This then gives us some reason to question the three-month AMJ temperature and precipitation Outlooks. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 31 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 31 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 02 2024…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada,
Colorado, Utah, and Arizona……There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of over parts of
the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Sunday; there is an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle
Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys on Monday…A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains will be
quasi-stationary through Monday morning. Moisture from the Western Gulf of
Mexico will pool along the boundary, creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Farther east along the boundary, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms increases over parts of the
Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys from
Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased threat of EF2
to EF5 tornados over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the
Western Ohio Valley. In addition, there is an increased threat of hail two
inches or greater in size over parts of the Southern Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley.Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys from Monday to Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
Likewise, showers and thunderstorms will extend into the Central
Appalachian and Mid-Atlantic on Monday.Meanwhile, the threat of excessive rainfall is a Marginal Risk over parts
of Southern California and Arizona on Sunday. The associated heavy rain
will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff and burn scars. In addition, the moisture streamed
inland due to the upper-level low off the Southern California Coast will
aid in creating heavy snow over the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada,
Colorado, Utah, and Arizona through Monday. Moderate to heavy snow will
linger over parts of Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico from Monday
evening into Tuesday. Rain will develop over lower elevations of the
Southwest and Southern Rockies, ending on Tuesday. Additionally, light to
moderate snow will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on
Sunday. The snow will linger over the area on Monday and end overnight on
Monday.
