This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 10 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 10 2024 – 12Z Sun May 12 2024…Severe thunderstorms possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today…
…Above average temperatures will spread across the West and
north-central U.S. this weekend…Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue today across the
Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast as a slow-moving cold front gradually
pushes towards the East Coast. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from
the eastern Carolinas where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an
area with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) and in
southern Georgia and north Florida where there is another Slight Risk
(level 2/5) area with an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. The main
thunderstorm threat will be damaging winds, but hail and locally heavy
rainfall/isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible.
Precipitation will come to an end for most areas in these regions tonight
as the front moves into the Atlantic, but isolated showers and storms will
remain possible in south Florida through the weekend as the frontal
boundary slows/stalls.By this afternoon, a frontal system will develop over the Upper Midwest
then push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. This system will
cause precipitation chances to return to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England on Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms
expected. This system is forecast to be weaker than the system that
impacted the region on Thursday and Friday, and severe thunderstorms are
not expected. Another front will drop south into the northern Plains and
upper Midwest on Sunday, but the frontal passage is expected to be mostly
dry with only some scattered showers and storms.Meanwhile, an upper level low and a stationary surface front will be
positioned over the southwestern U.S., which will support low elevation
showers and thunderstorms over the central and southern High Plains and
the Four Corners region and high elevation wintry precipitation through
Saturday. Most lower elevation areas will see light to moderate rainfall,
though some heavier showers/storms will be possible heading into Saturday
evening for portions of west Texas, with some isolated flash flooding
possible. The upper low will gradually push east Saturday night into
Sunday, and precipitation chances will expand into the central and
southern Plains as a low pressure system develops. This system will push
east early next week, and warm, moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico will
likely support heavy rainfall in the warm sector that could potentially
lead to flash flooding in parts of the South.The Pacific Northwest and much of California will remain dry through this
weekend as surface high pressure and upper level ridging remain anchored
over the region. This will result in above average temperatures with highs
in the 80s and even lower 90s (15-25 degrees above average) in some areas.
The upper level ridge and above average temperatures will expand east
across the north-central U.S. over the weekend where highs will range from
the mid-70s to the lower 80s. Elsewhere, forecast precipitation and cloud
cover will result in temperatures below or near average.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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