Sig Silber Archives - Page 27 of 113

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 25, 2024

By Sig Silber May 25, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat May 25 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 25 2024 – 12Z Mon May 27 2024

…Dangerous severe weather threat forecast across parts of the
central/southern Plains through tonight before the potential for strong
storms shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys on Sunday…

…Extreme fire weather expected for south-central New Mexico with
critical fire weather throughout much of the southern Rockies/High Plains
today…

…Simmering heat continues across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and
southern Florida through Memorial Day…

The start of this Memorial Day weekend will feature yet another round of
severe weather impacting the central United States as the next storm
system strengthens across the central Plains. A textbook Great Plains
severe weather setup is expected as a warm front lifts to the central
Plains and middle Mississippi Valley while a sharp dryline extends south
of the low into the southern Plains. Discrete supercells are anticipated
to develop this evening in response to an ejecting shortwave out of the
Rockies as aforementioned surface boundaries provide a focus for
developing thunderstorms. A few supercells may be capable of intense
tornadoes, with giant hail and destructive winds also expected. By
tonight, thunderstorms are expected to merge into clusters and potentially
bow echos as they push eastward towards the Ozarks. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe thunderstorms in
parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and far southwest Missouri. Additionally,
storms are expected to contain intense rainfall rates that could lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding from the central/southern Plains to
the mid-Mississippi Valley into tonight. The low pressure system and
associated storminess are expected to shift eastward on Sunday into
portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts are the most
likely hazards as a complex of thunderstorms progress from Missouri to
Kentucky, as well as the possibility of flash flooding, hail, and a few
tornadoes. The Memorial Day finale for this spring storm system will
impact the eastern U.S. on Monday as low pressure swings into the Great
Lakes and a strong cold front extends along the Appalachians. Showers and
storms may dampen outdoor barbecues, while also containing frequent
lighting, have rain, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors should remain
weather aware this holiday weekend and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.

West of the dryline today throughout the southern High Plains and southern
Rockies will exist extremely critical fire weather conditions. Low
relative humidity, gusty winds, and dry vegetation could lead to any newly
formed fires to spread rapidly. Red Flag Warnings span throughout all of
New Mexico, southeast Arizona, western Texas, and the western Oklahoma
Panhandle.

The temperature outlook for this weekend includes above average
temperatures leading to a summer-like feel for much of the eastern U.S.,
Mid-South, and central/southern Plains as heat also begins to build back
into the West by Memorial Day. Cooler temperatures are forecast to remain
over the Rockies, Northwest, and north-central United States. Heat will
reach oppressive levels across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern
Florida, with heat indices into the triple digits and the potential for
daily record highs. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across South
Texas due to heat indices rising to around 115 degrees, which could be
dangerous for those spending extended amounts of time outdoors.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 24, 2024

By Sig Silber May 24, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 24 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 24 2024 – 12Z Sun May 26 2024

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the Midwest to
the southern Plains today…

…Next round of severe weather to develop across the central/southern
Plains Saturday evening before shifting into parts of the mid-Mississippi
and Ohio valleys on Sunday…

…Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across South
Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial Day weekend…

The relentlessly active spring weather pattern is set to continue through
the holiday weekend as two separate systems are anticipated to be
responsible for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the middle of
the Nation. An initial low pressure system deepening over the northern
Plains today, while an attached cold front extends from the Upper Midwest
to the Southern Plains, should maintain a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, cold air aloft on the backside of
the strong system could allow for snow to mix with rain across parts of
North Dakota. Along the cold front as it extends southward, storms could
turn severe from the Midwest to the southern Plains, with the greatest
potential for tornadoes across central to northern Illinois, far eastern
Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. This same cold front could slow it’s forward
progress and allow for thunderstorms to potentially train across parts of
southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northeast Texas, leading to the
threat of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms may
dampen outdoors plans throughout the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

The next shortwave to eject out of the western U.S. and into the Great
Plains is expected to spark the next round of severe weather late on
Saturday in the central/southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure
forming in the lee of the central Rockies is forecast to lift a warm front
northward to the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, while a sharp
dryline extends southward into the southern Plains. These features
combined with a strengthening low-level jet will allow for storms to turn
severe, containing a risk for large hail, intense rainfall rates, a few
tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of
Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri in order to highlight the threat.
As clusters of storms move eastward with the system on Sunday, the flash
flooding and severe weather will shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
valleys. Tornadoes, hail, strong winds, and flash flooding will be
possible. Residents and visitors located within the threat for severe
weather this weekend are urged to have multiple ways of receiving warnings
and to continue to check for the latest forecast.

Elsewhere, heat remains the main weather story along the Gulf Coast, South
Texas, and southern Florida. The hottest locations are forecast throughout
South Texas into late this weekend as highs soar above the century mark,
with heat indices up to 120 degrees possible. Temperatures into the upper
90s are anticipated to spread into much of Texas on Saturday and Sunday as
well. High heat indices will also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region
and South Florida, while also potentially breaking a few record high
temperatures. Warm overnight conditions will also provide little to no
relief for those without adequate or reliable cooling.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 23, 2024

By Sig Silber May 23, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 23 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 23 2024 – 12Z Sat May 25 2024

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats across the Arklatex region today
will expand northward across the northern and central Plains tonight…

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats will shift east into the Midwest
and remain across the Arklatex region on Friday…

…Heavy snow expected today across the higher elevations of the northern
Rockies…

As a low pressure system continues to move further away from the Great
Lakes into southeastern Canada, showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
associated cold front will push farther eastward across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states today. Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the
front will become nearly stationary across the Mid-South where the focus
of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will be the greatest today. These
thunderstorms may reform across the Arklatex region as the frontal
boundary meanders in the vicinity, along with the arrival of some
additional lifting mechanisms from an upper-level jet stream from the
west-southwest. The jet stream winds will tend to carry the showers and
storms downstream across the Mid-South toward the Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic states, keeping the weather unsettled for these areas through
the next couple of days with modest rainfall amounts although locally
heavy rain can be expected in some of the embedded thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, a rather deep and compact upper-level low from Alaska a couple
of days ago is now sweeping across the northwestern U.S. This system will
continue to usher a cold air mass through the western U.S. with a round of
heavy wet snow across the higher-elevations of Idaho, western Montana, and
into northwestern/northern Wyoming today. The energy from this system
will help develop another low pressure system across the northern and
central High Plains today. The low pressure system is forecast to further
intensify on Friday as the upper low exits into northern Plains and begins
to lift toward the northeast. Another round of showers and possibly
severe thunderstorms will develop and expand across many locations up and
down the Great Plains later today, and will begin to lift east and
northeastward into the Midwest, and along the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. A swath of cold rain is forecast across North Dakota,
southeastern Montana, and into northwestern Minnesota as the low pressure
center tracks just to the south. Temperatures could be cold enough for
some wet snow to mix in with the rain later tonight near the Canadian
border. Increasingly strong and gusty winds will also add to the chill as
the low pressure system intensifies and wraps the precipitation around the
center of circulation. By Saturday morning, the showers and storms should
progress into the Great Lakes and down across the Midwest ahead of and
near the cold/occluded fronts. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms
will linger across the Mid-South into the Southeast where the old front
lingers.

Across southern Texas an early-season heat wave is forecast to gradually
intensify through the next few days into the Memorial Day weekend. Record
or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no
relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend,
record daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees in
South Texas will also be possible. Check local media and government
websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you
encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable
generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a
generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed space! Finally, a
critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies into the
southern High Plains per the Storm Prediction Center.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Let’s take a look at the Weather in April 2024 in the U.S. and Globally – Posted on May 20, 2024

By Sig Silber May 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

Looking at the trend for April over time.

This is the temperature trend for April in CONUS.

But look at this the most recent 25 years. No increase but a decrease. Data can be misleading if you do not look at it carefully

The temperature for the world, land and water hit a new record.

The temperature for the world, land only also was a record.

The temperature for the world’s oceans also hit a record. Notice the slope is less. You can see the impact of ENSO in this graphic.

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 19, 2024

By Sig Silber May 19, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 19 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 19 2024 – 12Z Tue May 21 2024

…Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
Central U.S. into early next week…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas while
expanding into the southern High Plains…

An energetic upper-level pattern will bring a couple rounds of storms to
the central U.S. for Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, moist return flow
following a warm front moving northward through the Plains and ahead of a
dryline over the High Plains will provide more than enough instability to
trigger robust thunderstorm development over the Central Plains.
Increasing upper-level winds will promote supercells with the threat of
large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms are also expected to grow upscale
into one or more organized convective systems, bringing a heightened
threat for potentially widespread, significant damaging winds later Sunday
evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk
of severe weather (level 4/5). Storm chances will shift northeastward into
the Upper Midwest overnight Sunday and into the Great Lakes by Monday
following an initial upper-wave/accompanying surface frontal system. An
amplifying long-wave trough over the West will help to enhance lee
cyclogenesis over the High Plains bringing another chance of storms to the
Central Plains/Missouri Valley by Monday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center has included a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some more
damaging winds and large hail, and possibly a tornado. Some locally heavy
downpours will also be possible, particularly from the Central Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday and the Central Plains once again
Monday, with an isolated chance of flash flooding.

The active upper-level pattern will also bring some precipitation chances
to the Northern/Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin over the next
couple of days. Rainfall should generally remain light to moderate, though
some locally heavier storms will be possible especially over Wyoming on
Monday. Some snow is expected for higher mountain elevations. To the east,
an area of low pressure lingering just off the Atlantic coast of the
Southeast with a trailing frontal boundary moving through Florida will
bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday. Storm chances
will decrease overnight Sunday and into the day Monday from north to south
as the front pushes southward, expected to clear the coast by Tuesday
morning.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
from southern Texas into the southern High Plains the next couple of days.
Highs in the 90s with high humidity values for areas closer to the coast
will bring heat indices into the 105-110 degree range, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for South Florida Sunday. While not as humid,
temperatures will soar into the 100s further inland into west Texas/the
southern High Plains. Some record-tying/breaking temperatures are
possible. While not as hot, conditions will still be well above average
more broadly across the central/eastern U.S. Highs in 80s will be common,
even into more northerly locations like the Great Lakes and the interior
Northeast. One exception will be where onshore flow keeps things a bit
cooler along the East Coast, with highs in the 60s and 70s expected from
coastal New England south into the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Carolinas.
Highs over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will remain cool Sunday
behind a cold front, with highs in the 50s and 60s. These cooler
temperatures will spread southward into the Great Basin Monday. Highs in
the 80s and 90s are forecast south of the front over the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on May 18, 2024

By Sig Silber May 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The most recent observations indicate that the El Niño has further weakened, and a weak indication of a La Niña is emerging. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to decay and a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the occurrence timing and amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published yesterday which can be accessed HERE.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on May 14 close to when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of May 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for June, July, and August 2024.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is cold and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas. You no longer can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the JJA image but look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON also show La Nina but are increasingly to the west and may not be in the Nino 3.4 measurement area. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. coasts which probably explains their forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 18, 2024

By Sig Silber May 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat May 18 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 18 2024 – 12Z Mon May 20 2024

…Unsettled weather with chances for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms continues across the Southeast Saturday…

…Severe weather potential returns to the Central Plains on Sunday…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas,
building into the southern High Plains this weekend…

A wet Saturday is in store for the Southeast as an upper-level wave and
associated surface frontal system focused along the Gulf Coast lead to a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Rich moisture along and south of
this boundary may lead to some locally heavy downpours, with a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place for portions of southern
Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. An expected
round of widespread, organized thunderstorms over wet soils from storms
already occurring overnight Friday will lead to the threat of some
scattered instances of flash flooding. Some storms will also carry the
threat for damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two, with a Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) extending eastward further into
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will be possible elsewhere to the north of the boundary, with a few
additional isolated instances of flash flooding possible. Additional
showers will expand northward into the Mid-Atlantic, and onshore flow
ahead of a system over the Atlantic will bring showers to New England as
well, but these should remain lighter than those over the Southeast. Storm
chances will taper off from west to east for much of the Southeast
overnight Saturday and into early Sunday as the northern part of the
frontal system pushes eastward into the Atlantic. A trailing cold front
will keep storms in the forecast for Florida Sunday.

Some light showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of another system
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
region Saturday, though these should generally remain light. Then, on
Sunday, additional upper-level energies approaching from the West will
bring a renewed chance of storms more broadly across the Northern/Central
Plains and into the Midwest on Sunday. Moist southerly return flow
following a warm front lifting into the Northern Plains/Midwest and ahead
of a dryline over the High Plains will lead to sufficient instability for
some robust thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center has
introduced an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for portions of
the Central Plains for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible,
particularly from the Central Plains northeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Some storms are also expected in the Northern Rockies
as these upper-level energies pass overhead, with some snow possible into
higher mountain elevations.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
southern Texas this weekend, and expand in coverage into portions of the
southern High Plains. Forecast highs will be in the 90s for Florida with
mid-90s to mid-100s in Texas, potentially record-tying/breaking levels.
When combined with the humidity, heat indices will soar to near 110 in
South Florida, with Heat Advisories in place for Saturday. While not quite
as hot, temperatures will still be well above average more broadly across
much of the country this weekend, particularly from the Central Plains
into the Midwest where highs in the 80s to near 90 will be common. Highs
will also be above average for portions of the West, with 70s and 80s in
the Great Basin/interior California and 90s to low 100s in the Desert
Southeast. More temperate, below average conditions are expected along
much of the East Coast, with 50s and 60s in New England and 60s and 70s
into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies
will also be cooler, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected here as well.
Variable temperatures are forecast for the Southeast due to ongoing
storms, with mainly 80s expected.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on May 16, 2024 – La Nina is Coming: Published May 17, 2024

By Sig Silber May 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is challenging. We are for all practical purposes now in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario for this summer almost to the end of the forecast period. The Outlook beyond June has not been significantly changed from what was issued last month. This suggests increasing confidence in the outlook. The forecast is a canonical La Nina plus trends.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for June

It will be updated on the last day of May.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different, especially about precipitation. This tells us that July and August will be different than June to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through June/July/August of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for June and the three-month period June/July/August. Small maps are provided beyond that through June/July/August of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 17, 2024

By Sig Silber May 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 17 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 17 2024 – 12Z Sun May 19 2024

…Potentially significant heavy rainfall threat spreads into portions of
southern Mississippi and western Alabama Friday…

…Wet start to the weekend for much of the eastern U.S. as well as the
Northern Rockies/Plains…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas into
this weekend…

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected Friday across much
of the eastern U.S., with the chance for moderate to heavy rainfall likely
to focus from the Lower Great Lakes south through the Appalachians into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and to the Gulf Coast. Starting along the Gulf
Coast, another day of potentially significant flash flooding is forecast
along and to the south of a warm front lifting slowly northward across the
region. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) has been issued
for portions of southern Mississippi and Alabama where a complex of
organized, heavy downpour-producing storms is forecast over already
saturated soils from storms Thursday night. The location of these
additional storms will likely be influenced by the storms ongoing
overnight, bringing higher uncertainty and highlighting the importance of
remaining aware of the most current forecast. To the north, an active
series of shortwaves will help encourage a couple additional areas of
locally heavier rainfall focused over portions of the central Appalachians
as well as the Lower Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in place for both locations for the
threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding. Storm chances will
shift southeastward on Saturday, bringing the focus for moderate to heavy
rainfall to the southern Mid-Atlantic south along the coastal Carolinas
into Georgia and lingering along the central Gulf Coast. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been included here for portions of the central Gulf
Coast where higher available moisture is most likely to lead to locally
heavier downpours on top of already saturated conditions from the previous
days’ rainfall. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding remain
possible.

Another frontal system will bring shower and storm chances to the Northern
Rockies/High Plains early Friday and the Northern Plains/Upper-Midwest by
Friday evening. Generally light to moderate rainfall is expected, with the
more moderate rain most likely near the Red River Valley. Cooler
conditions may lead to some snow mixing in through the Northern Rockies,
though no accumulations are expected. Precipitation chances will taper off
into Saturday as the bulk of the system lifts northeastward into Canada.
However, to the southwest, some showers and storms will be possible late
Saturday into early Sunday along a trailing frontal boundary stretching
into the Central Plains.

Conditions will continue to remain unseasonably hot and very much
Summer-like for portions of South Florida and southern Texas into the
weekend. Forecast highs Friday and Saturday range from the low to mid-90s
in South Florida and the mid 90s to mid-100s in southern Texas,
potentially record-tying/breaking temperatures. High humidity will bring
heat indices into the mid- to upper-100s for many locations.
Unfortunately, this pattern looks to continue not only into next week but
into the following week as well. While not quite as hot, temperatures will
also be well-above average and Summer-like across portions of the Northern
and Central Plains Friday, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s forecast.
These temperatures will shift eastward into the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. Variable highs are expected for the rest of the central/eastern
U.S., with above average conditions into the 70s for most of the Northeast
Friday and Saturday, though portions of the Mid-Atlantic will see a cool
down into the 60s Saturday. Slightly below average conditions following a
frontal passage over the Southern Plains and Southeast will continue
Friday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s, though a quick warm-up
into the mid-80s to 90s will come Saturday for the Southern Plains. In the
West, conditions will be below average in the Pacific Northwest and along
coastal California, with highs mainly in the 60s. However, above average
conditions are expected into the interior, with highs in the 70s to low
80s in the Great Basin, 80s for the central California valleys, and 90s to
low 100s for the Desert Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 16, 2024

By Sig Silber May 16, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 16 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 16 2024 – 12Z Sat May 18 2024

…Severe thunderstorms along with significant flash flooding possible
across portions of East Texas into the Gulf States through Saturday
morning…

…Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S today…

…Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week
…

Rain will spread across the Southern Plains and Gulf states as a hot,
moist airmass settles in across the South. This airmass will also
attribute to stint of unusually hot temperatures for South Florida and
Texas with heat indices rising above 100 degrees. Owing to the combination
of oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight temperatures
in these areas, major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of
hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk
guidance. The abundant moisture streaming northward as a warm front will
pool over Texas and the western/central Gulf Coast which will further
enhance rainfall efficiency and intensity as the cold front over the
Southern Plains advances eastward. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected to fall over areas that are already
sensitive from recent heavy rain and flooding. WPC has High Risk in effect
for portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana today, which is a
level 4 out of 4 for significant impacts. There will likely be numerous
areas that will experience excessive rainfall and flooding. In additional
to the rainfall threat, there will also be strong to severe thunderstorms.
SPC has an Enhanced Risk in place for today with the primary threats are
large hail and damaging winds followed by a Slight Risk for Friday for the
central Gulf states. WPC had another Moderate Risk depicted over southern
Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued
thunderstorm development on Friday.

Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the southern
DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances over Eastern Long
Island and Coastal New England through the morning hours, with 2-3″ of
rain and isolated flash flooding possible as the storm wraps up offshore.
Much of this activity in the Northeast will remain steady stratiform
rainfall, with the bulk of robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Across the West, most locations will have
dry and calm weather.