JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook – May 13, 2022

May 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the two seasons that include our monsoon, I will extract the North American forecast from their world forecast and enlarge it.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

For those interested in the U.S., the forecast for the Summer Monsoon and the overall placement of the drought is of interest. We will have the NOAA forecast this Thursday and it will be interesting to see the level of agreement or disagreement.

NOAA Updates the ENSO Forecast on May 12, 2022- Chances of a La Nina Three-peat are 61%

May 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be slightly higher than the estimate last month. That would be a real disaster for the Southwest and the West Coast. The NOAA estimate for La Nina lasting into early Winter is 61%. This is a minority opinion in terms of other meteorological agencies almost all of which see La Nina ending sooner.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the slow or non-existent transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the Outlook might change. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact strength of the  La Nina may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM).  We may see some changes farther out in the NOAA Outlook that will be issued next Thursday in particular Fall and Winter. Although the chances that this will happen are slightly less this month, the possibility of a Triple Dip should be of considerable concern. It most likely will be reflected in the Outlook issued next Thursday but perhaps not. We will learn more about what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

NOAA Updates their Outlook for May, 2022 – It is an improvement

May 1, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is May. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is quite different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. It is overall less warm and less dry than the Mid-Month Outlook.

We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 27 days of May which allows us to validate if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial month forecasts and it is.  We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Most of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The NOAA discussion describes the changes but does not provide a lot of insight into the reasons for the changes other than a change in the wave pattern that they describe as more troughing in the western Northern Tier. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern changes during May.

There is also a short discussion of the ENSO condition and it is looking less likely that there will be a Three-peat of the La Nina but that a near La Nina may be the more likely situation for Fall and Winter. Those forecasts can change but it looks like a marginally better situation with the focus on the words marginally better.

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook on April 21, 2022 – High Level of Uncertainty Near and Longer Term

April 22, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of May plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information that was issued and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps. But I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).
Because of the high level of uncertainty indicated for the May Outlook, I will provide an update or publish a short addendum when the week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated later today. Sometimes that adds additional clarity. I urge readers to read the discussion that was issued by NOAA with their Outlook maps.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook based on April 1, 2022 Model Runs

April 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. You need a scorecard. I am going to show their forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the season that includes our monsoon, I will extract and enlarge their forecast for North America.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that.

NOAA Updates Their ENSO Forecast – La Nina Looks to Continue

April 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This may read like a repeat of a prior article but it is not. It is simply that the situation has not really changed. On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are not at all ruled out. That could be a real disaster for the Southwest and the West Coast.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the slow or non-existent transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the Outlook might change. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM).  We may see some changes farther out in the NOAA Outlook that will be issued next Thursday in particular Fall and Winter. But the possibility of a Triple Dip should be of considerable concern but it most likely will not be reflected in the Outlook issued next Thursday since it remains unlikely but possible. We will learn more about what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

UN climate report: It’s ‘now or never’ to limit global warming to 1.5C degrees

April 11, 2022Posted inClimateNo Comments

On April 4, 2022, the IPPC AR6 WGIII Report was released to the public.  In this article, I will try to summarize what was presented.  This is complicated by the sensational nature of the analysis presented about the rate of change in global temperature.  The analysis conclusion was interpreted by the UN Secretary-General as a dramatic proclamation of the dire need for corrective action.

Southwest Drought Briefing – A Focus on Snowpack: April 5, 2022

April 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) hosted a Drought Briefing on the Southwest on April 5, 2022. In this article, we provide the recording of the webinar.  There are three amazing presentations which include some new ways to make run-off forecasts. I am sure you will find it very interesting. In some cases, the results are surprising. These are very good presenters and provide a lot of information. It is not a good situation but not as bad as one might expect given the continuation of the La Nina.

NOAA Updates April, 2022 Outlook

April 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EST on April 1, 2022 to reflect the issuance of the Week 3 – 4 Outlook that I think suggests that the Northern Tier of CONUS will be wetter than shown in the Outlook for April Issued yesterday.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is April. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is somewhat different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. It is overall less warm and less dry than the Mid-Month Outlook.  We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 22 days of April which will be 28 days when the Week 3 – 4 Update is issued on Friday.  We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Most of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. When the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is released, we will provide an update to this article if it is needed.

Three-Peat or Triple-Dip is not a Cause for Celebration

March 26, 2022Posted inClimateNo Comments

We have discussed this before but the fact that there is a possibility of a third La Nina Winter is a good reason to discuss it again. I would say that is is not real likely. But if it happens, it would be very serious. So that is why it is worth discussing. We have not previously discussed how Global Warming makes any drought more dangerous but that should be obvious. We know that the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results in a higher ratio of La Nina to El Nino Events. But we have not discussed how Global Warming might impact the PDO. So we are not addressing the broader question of whether or not Global Warming is increasing the chance of a third year of La Nina but simply looking at the evidence that a third year is a possibility. It seems that NOAA may be more concerned about the possibility than some other weather forecasting agencies in other part of the world, but we will attempt to show that their concern is not unreasonable.