NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on August 18, 2022

August 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of September plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

“The La Niña signature is likely to fade during FMA and MAM 2023, given that La Niña and ENSO-neutral are about even odds”

You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. But the Outlook is for a wetter CONUS starting in AMJ 2023. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be wetter than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

August 20, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Significant heavy rainfall event may lead to major flash flood impacts
in the Southwest...

...More heat expected across interior California and the Pacific
Northwest...

...Thunderstorms could become severe over the Midwest today and
thunderstorms and possible flooding rains will spread across the
South/Southeast and then up the Mid-Atlantic by the weekend...




















	




	
	

		August 19, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Significant heavy rainfall event may lead to major flash flood impacts
in the Southwest...

...Hot weather persists for California and the Pacific Northwest with
numerous heat-related advisories in place...

...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the Southeast to Southern
Plains and from the Northern Plains into the Midwest into the weekend...




















	




	
	

		August 18, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Flash flood risk intensifies in the Southwest as an already active
Monsoon season ramps up...

...Showers and thunderstorms remains persistant across the Southeast and
Southern Plains...

...Hot weather continues for California and the Northwest with numerous
heat advisories in place...




















	




	
	

		August 17, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across the Southwest and
Southern Rockies through at least the end of the week...

...Showers and thunderstorms near a slow-moving frontal boundary to
produce locally heavy rain over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
tonight into the Deep South on Wednesday and Thursday...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast to
mostly dissipate by Thursday, while record-breaking heat builds into the
Pacific Northwest...




















	




	
	

		August 16, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Monsoonal showers and storms will keep a slight risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the central Rockies to the Four Corners region for
the next couple of days...

...A low pressure wave will likely bring heavy to excessive rainfall
across the mid to lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday...

...A tropical low pressure system could bring additional heavy downpours
up the Rio Grande Valley into southwestern Texas through tonight into
Tuesday...

...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through this evening...

...Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of the southern Plains/lower
Mississippi Valley into this evening as heat intensifies over the interior
West Coast over the next couple of days...

...A coastal storm could impact parts of New England later on Wednesday...




















	




	
	

		August 15, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Monsoonal moisture to continues an excessive rain threat across much of
the Southwest into the Rockies...

...Heavy to locally excessive rain also likely across parts of south Texas
into Monday and parts of the Plains/Mississippi Valley Monday-Tuesday...

...Anomalous heat to continue across the central/southern Plains with heat
also building across the interior West...




















	




	
	

		August 14, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus a Review of State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings	





		
			
		
		August 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Northern Tier from Great Lakes West Predicted to be Hot and Dry


NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.


When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are publishing this article on Sunday we only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that.


We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for July and Year to Date (YTD). It is not a surprise that they differ. We provided that information in a recent article but thought it useful to repeat it here for those who did not happen to read the other article. There is value in relating the future outlook to the prior month and to the YTD.



















	




	
	

		August 14, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across much of the
Southwest/Intermountain West, as well as across south Texas...

...Much above normal temperatures likely this weekend across the central
Plains, with a warming trend for parts of the West...




















	




	
	

		NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on August 11, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon (my opinion)	





		
			
		
		August 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.


It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction.  From Emily Beckers’s post


If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.


Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.