...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across much of the Southwest/Intermountain West, as well as across south Texas... ...Much above normal temperatures likely this weekend across the central Plains, with a warming trend for parts of the West...
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.
It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction. From Emily Beckers’s post
If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.
Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.
...Monsoonal moisture to increase the threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West... ...Tropical moisture likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of south Texas this weekend... ...Much above normal temperatures expected from the northern High Plains to the central Plains...
...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies... ...Showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rainfall expected along the immediate Gulf Coast through the early weekend... ...Below-average temperatures and drier air behind an advancing cold front will lead to a comfortable weekend in the Eastern region...
It is a good time to look at how the drought situation in the Continental U.S. has changed over the last couple of months. There is a big debate as to whether the increased precipitation in June and July really changed the situation or was simply a drop in the bucket and I am tending to agree with the “drop in the bucket” assessment. Keep on reading to find out why I have drawn that conclusion.
...Heavy rain and flash flooding threat continues from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and along the Gulf Coast... ...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies... ...Above-normal temperatures are expected from the northern Intermountain West into the northern and central Plains, while much of the East begins to cool down through late in the week...
...Hot weather to continue from the Northwest into the Plains, some relief by Wednesday for the Northeast... ...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threat from the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians... ...Monsoonal Showers to continue from the Southwest, portions of California and into the Great Basin...
...Heat to continue from the Northwest into the Plains, some relief by Wednesday for the Northeast... ...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threat from the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians... ...Monsoonal Showers to continue from the Southwest, portions of California and into the Great Basin...
...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New England and Central/Southern Rockies from Monday into Tuesday morning... ...Dangerous heat across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Northeast Coast...
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains and from the Mid-Atlantic, Central/Southern Appalachians, and Ohio Valley into Sunday morning... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning... ...Dangerous heat across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Northeast Coast...
