NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on March 16, 2023 – Entering ENSO Neutral but it may switch to El Nino after the Summer
On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of April plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.
Ocean conditions no longer reflect La Nina but the atmosphere still has some lingering La Nina characteristics. ENSO Neutral will be the prevailing condition but its impacts are less during the Spring and Summer Seasons. The Southwest Monsoon may start late. The outlook partially reflects El Nino conditions beginning in the Autumn of 2023. We may see more El Nino impacts reflected in the Outlook next month if the confidence in an El Nino gradually increases as we pass through the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB).
