NOAA Updates its Weather Outlook for May 2024 – A Lot of Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook – Posted May 1, 2024

May 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is May of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for May and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for May for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for May. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (MJJ) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the May Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation in the Western States. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting ENSO Blog Post.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for May is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for May and the Mid-Month Outlook for May. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for May and the previously issued three-month outlook for MJJ 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for May 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for May.

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is not totally changed from what was issued on April 18, 2024, but there have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for May.  One expects some changes  12 days later. However, the changes to the May Outlook are significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (April 18, 2024) three-month MJJ temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for May and the Three-Month Outlook. It was attractive but not easy to look at the difference between the current month and the three-month period that includes the current month. So I created my own. It is a little rough.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which include the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that June and July will be very different than May, especially for temperature. You can basically subtract May from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined June-July Outlook.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.