NOAA Realizes it is a Powerful El Nino and Updates its January 2024 Outlook. January 1, 2024

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At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is January of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some very significant changes in the Outlook for January and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for January for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for January. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the January Drought Outlook.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for January is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for January and the Mid-Month Outlook for January. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for January and the three-month outlook JFM 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for January 2024

 

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for January.

 

There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. Until now we were not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) had moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. All of a sudden they have.

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.  The three-month map was issued on December 21, 2023.  Is it still valid?

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

NOAA Updates it’s January 2023 Outlook on December 31, 2022

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At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is January of 2023. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this evening New Year’s Eve.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for January and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.  Of particular interest is the absence of major disruptive factors which were present in December. There has not been much discussion about a potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event but it has been of concern and that concern now seems to have lessened. The potential for a SSW is no longer in the forecast hence there is minimal cold-air intrusions from the Arctic in the Outlook for January.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for January. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date snowpack and precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.