NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert Status to El Nino Watch on April 13, 2023

April 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Additional editing at 11:01 p.m. EDT April 14, 2023. I noticed that a map had dropped out of the article so I replaced it and I expanded the discussion blocks. I moved some graphics around. It will be easier to read now. While preparing the article I had not realized the extent of the changes. So I have better highlighted those changes now.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

If you read the fine print you can see that

“While the lower accuracy of forecasts during the spring can result in surprises, the recent oceanic Kelvin wave plus recurring westerly wind anomalies are anticipated to further warm the tropical Pacific Ocean.  The coastal warming in the eastern Pacific may foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin.  Therefore, an El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ³ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance).  In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023.”

The article includes two very interesting posts from the ENSO Blog. They are worth reading.

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on January 12, 2023

January 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. The best guess remains March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

Will this La Nina transition quickly to the El Nino phase? That would be unusual but some of the models suggest this will happen.  It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino Bias.

NOAA Updates it’s November 2022 ENSO Outlook

November 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

NOAA Updates the ENSO Forecast on June 9, 2022- Maybe Yes, Maybe No on La Nina Ending in 2022

June 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be slightly lower than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit lower. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now more disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.