inflation Archives - Page 5 of 6

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 14A – Deflation

By John Lounsbury July 2, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

We have failed to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending over long time periods. This is a continuation of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation/deflation individually. Parts 13A¹ and 13B² analyzed the ten significant inflation periods since 1914. This is the first of two posts to analyze the eleven significant deflationary periods for the years 1914-2022.

From photo by Guillaume de Germain on Unsplash

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 13B

By John Lounsbury June 25, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

This is a continuation of the analysis of each significant period of rising inflation since 1914. The first part¹ covered the years up to the start of World War II. In this post, we cover the inflationary periods following World War II through 2022.

Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash.

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 13A

By John Lounsbury June 4, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

After failing to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending, this is the start of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation individually.

Photo by Jen Theodore on Unsplash

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 12

By John Lounsbury May 14, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

Note: There are a number of errors in the analysis. A new article will be posted with the correct analysis. This post will remain. The reason is that this series of blog articles constitutes my “research notebook.” As anyone trained in science or engineering will tell you, a research notebook is a chronological record of work. When errors are made, they are noted but not crossed out or removed. Removing any part invalidates the research record. So Part 13 of this series will be a replacement for Part 12.

In previous posts in this series, we have looked at what can be learned by looking at the time series data for U.S. federal government spending and consumer inflation (CPI). We have failed to find systemic consistency in the correlation between these two data sets. In the most recent effort,¹ we isolated those data points belonging to periods of significant inflation and significant disinflation/deflation. Even that partitioning of the data did not yield the systemic patterns sought. This brings us to see what can be learned by studying each period of significant inflation changes individually.

From a photo by Jan Antonin Kolar on Unsplash

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 11

By John Lounsbury May 7, 2023macroeconomics1 Comment

Note: This article was originally posted on May 7, 2023. The Analysis and Conclusion sections were completed on May 8. The final additions to the Appendix were made on May 9.

Previously,¹ encouraging results were obtained when correlation analysis was restricted to periods of significant inflation or disinflation. In this post, we examine what can be learned about the correlation between deficit spending and inflation when timeline adjustment of the data is implemented.

Credit: Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 10

By John Lounsbury April 23, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

Previous work has shown that the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and CPI inflation fluctuates widely and wildly over time. Results vary depending on data sample selection. That leads to the present decision to look specifically at each instance of inflation, disinflation, and deflation.

Credit: From a photo by Sam on Unsplash

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 9

By John Lounsbury April 16, 2023macroeconomics1 Comment

Last week we thought we had wrapped up, for now, our work on timeline shift effects on the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and consumer inflation. However, more ideas have occurred, and this week we will look at further details regarding which comes first, inflation or increased government spending.

Credit: Photo by Grace O’Driscoll on Unsplash

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 8

By John Lounsbury April 9, 2023macroeconomics3 Comments

This week we return to the question of whether the inflation-spending correlation is greater when measured before, after, or concurrently with US federal deficit spending. The data for the 108-year period from 1914 to 2022 is used.

Credit: Image by Babil Kulesi from Pixabay

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 7

By John Lounsbury April 2, 2023macroeconomics3 Comments

This week we examine take a deep dive into what can be learned from examining the unsmoothed data for correlation of deficit spending and CPI inflation. As before, we are looking at the years 2014-2022.

Credit: From a photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash.¹

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 6

By John Lounsbury March 26, 2023macroeconomics2 Comments

Note: This was posted at 4:24 pm on March 26 with some incomplete sections. Updating in was completed at 2:52 am March 28.

In previous parts of this discussion, we have made some qualitative observations about relationships involving the correlations between U.S. federal government spending and inflation in the U.S. economy. For the first time in this series, we will move into the arena of quantitative measurements of government spending and inflation correlations.

Credit: Photo by Mahdi Soheili on Unsplash