Government Spending and Inflation. Part 14B – Deflation
This is the second of two posts to analyze the eleven significant deflationary periods for the years 1914-2022. The first post was Part 14A.1
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 14A – Deflation
We have failed to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending over long time periods. This is a continuation of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation/deflation individually. Parts 13A1 and 13B2 analyzed the ten significant inflation periods since 1914. This is the first of two posts to analyze the eleven significant deflationary periods for the years 1914-2022.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 13B
This is a continuation of the analysis of each significant period of rising inflation since 1914. The first part1 covered the years up to the start of World War II. In this post, we cover the inflationary periods following World War II through 2022.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 13A
After failing to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending, this is the start of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation individually.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 12
Note: There are a number of errors in the analysis. A new article will be posted with the correct analysis. This post will remain. The reason is that this series of blog articles constitutes my “research notebook.” As anyone trained in science or engineering will tell you, a research notebook is a chronological record of work. When errors are made, they are noted but not crossed out or removed. Removing any part invalidates the research record. So Part 13 of this series will be a replacement for Part 12.
In previous posts in this series, we have looked at what can be learned by looking at the time series data for U.S. federal government spending and consumer inflation (CPI). We have failed to find systemic consistency in the correlation between these two data sets. In the most recent effort,1 we isolated those data points belonging to periods of significant inflation and significant disinflation/deflation. Even that partitioning of the data did not yield the systemic patterns sought. This brings us to see what can be learned by studying each period of significant inflation changes individually.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 11
Note: This article was originally posted on May 7, 2023. The Analysis and Conclusion sections were completed on May 8. The final additions to the Appendix were made on May 9.
Previously,1 encouraging results were obtained when correlation analysis was restricted to periods of significant inflation or disinflation. In this post, we examine what can be learned about the correlation between deficit spending and inflation when timeline adjustment of the data is implemented.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 10
Previous work has shown that the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and CPI inflation fluctuates widely and wildly over time. Results vary depending on data sample selection. That leads to the present decision to look specifically at each instance of inflation, disinflation, and deflation.
Government Spending and Inflation. Part 9
Last week we thought we had wrapped up, for now, our work on timeline shift effects on the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and consumer inflation. However, more ideas have occurred, and this week we will look at further details regarding which comes first, inflation or increased government spending.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 8
This week we return to the question of whether the inflation-spending correlation is greater when measured before, after, or concurrently with US federal deficit spending. The data for the 108-year period from 1914 to 2022 is used.
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Government Spending and Inflation. Part 7
This week we examine take a deep dive into what can be learned from examining the unsmoothed data for correlation of deficit spending and CPI inflation. As before, we are looking at the years 2014-2022.
Credit: From a photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash.1