NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Forecast on March 9, 2023 – Leaving La Nina Say Hello to ENSO Neutral – But Maybe Not for Long

March 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory”

If you read the fine print you can see that we are still in the transition. We have left La Niña but are not fully into ENSO Neutral. The rules seem to be that when you no longer meet the criteria for La Nina or El Nino, you are in ENSO Neutral even if the atmosphere has not fully transitioned to ENSO Neutral. This makes a lot of sense since in general, the atmosphere reacts to the ocean conditions rather than the ocean reacting to the atmosphere but it is not as clear cut as what I have just stated. But typically the reaction of the atmosphere lags the change in the ocean condition and the change in the atmosphere confirms that the change in the ocean will impact weather patterns.

Some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino during or after the Summer. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

We have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to be confident that we will have an El Nino next winter. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes a very interesting post from the ENSO Blog. It is worth reading. Among other things, it discusses the situation off of Peru which might increase the chances for an El Nino but it also is a warning as to some potentially problematic weather conditions for Peru.

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook On February 16, 2023 – Potential El Niño impacts were considered in the outlooks for autumn 2023 and next winter

February 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 p.m. EST February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of March plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that ENSO will very soon return to Neutral with a La Nino bias and gradually transition to true Neutral, Neutral with an El Nino bias, and then solidly El Nino. Confidence in the first part of that sequence of transitions is higher than in the latter part of the sequence.

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on February 9, 2023 – Changes are Coming

February 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:23 p.m. EST Friday, February 10 to include a second interesting ENSO Blog Article. You have to click where shown to read them.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. The best guess remains March.

This may seem like a repeat of our article from last month and in a way it is since the situation has not changed. But no change increases the confidence in the forecast.

And again some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

Because the situation has not changed, we have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to examine the potential for an El Nino. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes two very interesting posts from the ENSO Blog. They are worth reading.

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on January 12, 2023

January 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. The best guess remains March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

Will this La Nina transition quickly to the El Nino phase? That would be unusual but some of the models suggest this will happen.  It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino Bias.

NOAA Updates it’s November 2022 ENSO Outlook

November 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

JAMSTEC two Season Forecast plus our US-48 Hour Forecast October 29, 2022

October 30, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a possible onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I should have presented this information when I received it two weeks ago. The JAMSTEC forecasts are based on their model runs of October 1, 2022.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

NOAA Updates it’s October 2022 ENSO Outlook

October 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat now looks to be a certainty. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps February or March.

But I actually see no sign of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong?

I also include some interesting graphics that show the impact of the combination of La Nina and what NOAA calls “trend” which is a combination of Global Warming and long cycles.  I find them interesting. The IOD is about over so the weather in the  Indian Ocean should return to something more like normal. The three phases of ENSO basically impact the entire world. It does appear that this third La Nina winter may be quite different from last year. But I will address that when NOAA issues their Seasonal Outlook for the U.S. and when I publish the JAMSTEC world outlook which I already have and I will probably publish it very soon.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter

September 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on August 18, 2022

August 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of September plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

“The La Niña signature is likely to fade during FMA and MAM 2023, given that La Niña and ENSO-neutral are about even odds”

You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. But the Outlook is for a wetter CONUS starting in AMJ 2023. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be wetter than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on August 11, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon (my opinion)

August 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction.  From Emily Beckers’s post

If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.