For the past several months, we have examined what the U.S. data has to say about the relationships between deficit spending by the federal government and inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This post will summarize these results and discuss what they mean.
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Previous posts have summarized the correlations for U.S. federal government deficit spending with inflation1 and deflation2 over the years from 1914-2022. In this article, the correlations of deficit spending with inflation are determined for the years not part of significant inflation surges (up or down).
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This is the second of two posts to analyze the eleven significant deflationary periods for the years 1914-2022. The first post was Part 14A.1
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Note: There are a number of errors in the analysis. A new article will be posted with the correct analysis. This post will remain. The reason is that this series of blog articles constitutes my “research notebook.” As anyone trained in science or engineering will tell you, a research notebook is a chronological record of work. When errors are made, they are noted but not crossed out or removed. Removing any part invalidates the research record. So Part 13 of this series will be a replacement for Part 12.
In previous posts in this series, we have looked at what can be learned by looking at the time series data for U.S. federal government spending and consumer inflation (CPI). We have failed to find systemic consistency in the correlation between these two data sets. In the most recent effort,1 we isolated those data points belonging to periods of significant inflation and significant disinflation/deflation. Even that partitioning of the data did not yield the systemic patterns sought. This brings us to see what can be learned by studying each period of significant inflation changes individually.
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Note: This article was originally posted on May 7, 2023. The Analysis and Conclusion sections were completed on May 8. The final additions to the Appendix were made on May 9.
Previously,1 encouraging results were obtained when correlation analysis was restricted to periods of significant inflation or disinflation. In this post, we examine what can be learned about the correlation between deficit spending and inflation when timeline adjustment of the data is implemented.
Credit: Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
Last week we thought we had wrapped up, for now, our work on timeline shift effects on the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and consumer inflation. However, more ideas have occurred, and this week we will look at further details regarding which comes first, inflation or increased government spending.
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This week we return to the question of whether the inflation-spending correlation is greater when measured before, after, or concurrently with US federal deficit spending. The data for the 108-year period from 1914 to 2022 is used.
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This week we examine take a deep dive into what can be learned from examining the unsmoothed data for correlation of deficit spending and CPI inflation. As before, we are looking at the years 2014-2022.
Credit: From a photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash.1
We have previously1 used the CPI data available since 1913 to create annualized inflation data aligned with the federal fiscal years from 1914 to 2022. In this post, we use the timeline-matched data to examine leads or lags that may exist between the two variables – government spending and inflation.
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In previous posts on this topic,1,2,3 we have looked at the historical records of inflation and deficit spending by the U.S. federal government. The changing dates for the government’s fiscal year over the country’s history confounded the correlation analysis of that data. Since 1913, U.S. inflation data has been recorded monthly. In this post, we will use the data since 1913 to align the timelines of the two variables.
