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Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 4

By John Lounsbury October 22, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

Note: A major addition was added to the conclusion at 1:43 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2023.

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Mortgage Debt and Consumer Inflation (CPI). The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here. The other two types of patterns (inflation surges¹ and disinflation/deflation surges²) were analyzed previously. The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.

From a photo by The Agent on Unsplash.

Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 1

By John Lounsbury October 1, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

Mortgage debt is the third area of money creation that we examine for associations with inflation. Two previous studies have analyzed the areas of federal government deficit spending¹ and consumer credit.²

From Photo by Kindel Media from Pixabay

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 7

By John Lounsbury April 2, 2023macroeconomics3 Comments

This week we examine take a deep dive into what can be learned from examining the unsmoothed data for correlation of deficit spending and CPI inflation. As before, we are looking at the years 2014-2022.

Credit: From a photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash.¹

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 1

By John Lounsbury February 5, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

re “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
. – – Milton Friedman¹

Note: An updated, expanded, and further edited version has been published here.

Nobel laureate Milton Friedman is considered to be the father of monetarism. This macroeconomic theory enjoyed popularity in the late 20th century but has come under increased criticism in the 21st century. Monetary theory is deeply linked to arguments about the causes of inflation. As shown here, there is little data to support Friedman’s theory that government spending generally causes inflation. The issue is not as simple as he made it seem.

Milton Friedman, 1989. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica.