This post continues the analysis of the Fed Funds Rate’s behavior during the positive inflation surges between 1951 and 2024.2 Specifically, we look at the inflation of the 1970s and 1980s.
Image by krzysztof-m from Pixabay
This post continues the analysis of the Fed Funds Rate’s behavior during the positive inflation surges between 1951 and 2024.2 Specifically, we look at the inflation of the 1960s.
From a photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash
This post develops 49 timeline offset tables to determine how CPI inflation varies as the Fed Funds rate changes. It examines the first application of these timeline tables.
Image by jairojehuel from Pi
How does CPI inflation vary as the Fed Funds rate changes? That is the next question in our investigation of possible cause-and-effect relationships for changes in inflation.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Wikipedia,
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
Notice: This post has incorrect calculations for changes in the Fed Funds rate. See Fed Funds Rate and Inflation: Part 1 – Corrected.
How does CPI inflation vary as the Fed Funds rate changes? That is the next question in our investigation of possible cause-and-effect relationships for changes in inflation.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Wikipedia,
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
Note: A major addition was added to the conclusion at 1:43 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2023.
This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Mortgage Debt and Consumer Inflation (CPI). The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here. The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously. The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.
Mortgage debt is the third area of money creation that we examine for associations with inflation. Two previous studies have analyzed the areas of federal government deficit spending1 and consumer credit.2
From Photo by Kindel Media from Pixabay
This week we examine take a deep dive into what can be learned from examining the unsmoothed data for correlation of deficit spending and CPI inflation. As before, we are looking at the years 2014-2022.
Credit: From a photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash.1
re “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
. – – Milton Friedman1
Note: An updated, expanded, and further edited version has been published here.
Nobel laureate Milton Friedman is considered to be the father of monetarism. This macroeconomic theory enjoyed popularity in the late 20th century but has come under increased criticism in the 21st century. Monetary theory is deeply linked to arguments about the causes of inflation. As shown here, there is little data to support Friedman’s theory that government spending generally causes inflation. The issue is not as simple as he made it seem.
Milton Friedman, 1989. Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica.
