Atmospheric Rivers

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024

…Beryl to bring significant impacts to the Texas coast beginning today
before making landfall as a Hurricane tonight…

…Extremely dangerous heat wave continues in the West….

…Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected to shift
south into Oklahoma today…

…Critical Fire Weather over portions of southern Utah…

The upper pattern across the CONUS will consist of a dome of high pressure
in the West, a digging trough in the Central U.S. and more ridging in the
Southeast heading into the beginning of the work week.

Beryl, which is currently a Tropical Storm, is forecast to strengthen to a
Hurricane before making landfall early Monday morning. Tropical Storm
force winds could develop as early as this evening for the upper Texas
coast. Heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, as well as strong rip
currents and coastal inundation from storm surge are the most likely
impacts from Beryl. There’s a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for portions of the central Texas Coast
from Aransas up to Galveston County today. There’s a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms along the middle to upper Texas coast with severe wind
gusts, isolated to large hail and a few tornadoes possible. Excessive
Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm threats spread farther inland through the
ArkLaTex on Monday. Another Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect from the central/northern Texas coast up into northeast Texas near
the ArkLaTex. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in
effect for portions of the Texas Coast from South Padre Island up through
the Houston metro area. For more information please refer to the National
Hurricane Center.

The extremely dangerous heat wave in the West is forecast to continue and
expand across the Northwest and into the Northern High Plains over the
next few days. Dozens of daily record temperatures are forecast to be tied
or broken into the work week. Highs in the 100s to 110s and lows in the
70s will represent 15-30 degree positive temperature anomalies. The
multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will
cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. In addition to the heat, dry and windy conditions over parts of
southern Utah will contribute to a Critical Fire Weather Risk today.

The digging upper trough over the Central U.S. will push a surface cold
front south through the Central Plains today. An MCS is expected to
develop between the cold front and a warm front lifting up from the
Southern High Plains. This area of convergence will be ripe for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall this afternoon. There are Slight Risks of
Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern
Texas, central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where the MCS is forecast to
produce severe wind gusts and isolated flash flooding. A quasi-stationary
surface front draped across the Southeast will focus scattered to isolated
thunderstorm activity across the region over the next couple days. An
isolated instance of flash flooding cannot be ruled out as a result.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024

…Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West, with heat persisting in
the Eastern U.S….

…Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall possible for portions of
the Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today, then the
Central/Southern Plains on Sunday…

…Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
today and threaten the western Gulf Coast of the U.S. beginning on
Sunday…

…Critical Fire Weather possible over portions of the Upper Great Basin
and Four Corners Regions this weekend…

An amplified upper-level pattern over the CONUS will support record
breaking heat in the West, severe weather and heavy to excessive rainfall
over the Central U.S., and some more heat risk in the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast this weekend. A staunch upper ridge continues to
promote an intense, widespread and long duration heat wave across the
West. Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or broken
this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to 110s likely up and down the
West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. These conditions will be
extremely dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. The
multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will
cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Heat Advisories are in
effect for much of the West. Hazardous heat will continue in the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat index values will approach or
exceed 110 degrees at times. Heat Advisories stretch from upstate New York
down the East Coast to the Alabama coast. The intense heat paired with dry
windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over portions of
southern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday.

Elsewhere, an upper-level trough stationed over the Central U.S. will
amplify and dig into the Southern Plains this weekend. At the surface, a
pair of slow moving low pressure systems will focus areas of showers and
thunderstorms across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms
across parts of the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected from the Southern High Plains into
the Upper Midwest. Mid-level energy propagating atop a moist, unstable
environment and quasi-stationary front at the surface will support
convection and locally heavy rainfall from central Texas through the
Central Gulf Coast today. There’s a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (at
least 15%) over much of Louisiana. Another round of heavy rainfall could
produce heavy to excessive rainfall for parts of central Oklahoma northern
Texas and southern Kansas on Sunday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for the aforementioned areas. Some more scattered to isolated
storms will occur over portions of the Northeast today with potential for
isolated Flash Flooding.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify as it moves through the
western Gulf of Mexico today. Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a
Hurricane on Sunday night before making landfall somewhere along the Texas
Coast. The exact location of Beryl’s landfall is uncertain at this point
but what’s most important is that heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm
surge are expected for much of the state’s coastline and portions of the
central Gulf Coast beginning tonight into Sunday. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for the latest Beryl forecast track and
intensity.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024

…Heat is expected to intensify and spread farther up the West Coast this
weekend…

…Oppressive heat and humidity will shift east into the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast today and Saturday…

…Excessive Rainfall possible over portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic
down through the Carolinas on Saturday…

…Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Saturday and threaten southern Texas…

Dangerous heat is likely to become more widespread in the West today and
Saturday. Today, temperatures will soar into the 100s and 110s over much
of California and southern Oregon. Temperatures will be 15-30 degrees
above average for much of the West Coast today. Widespread temperature
records are expected to be tied or broken. Saturday will likely shape up
to be the hottest day in this heatwave when high temperatures into the
110s will be common across California outside of the cooling effects of
the Pacific Ocean near the coast and the naturally cooler higher
elevations. Numerous record-breaking temperatures can be expected through
the next few days. Locally higher temperatures into the 120s are possible
in the typical hot spots of the Desert Southwest. The triple-digit heat
will expand northward into the Pacific Northwest and parts of the central
Great Basin, with widespread highs rising into the 90s and low 100s. The
duration of this heat is also concerning as scorching above average
temperatures are forecast to linger into next week. Heat impacts can
compound over time, therefore it is important to remain weather aware and
follow the advice of local officials. Heat Watches and Warnings are in
effect for much of the West. This level of heat throughout parts of the
Mojave Desert and Sacramento/San Joaquin valleys of California could pose
a risk to anyone if proper heat safety is not followed. It is imperative
to stay hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in buildings with sufficient
air-conditioning when possible. It is also equally as important to check
on the safety of vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.

Meanwhile, oppressive heat and humidity will begin to shift eastward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast for the end of the week. High temperatures
rising into the upper 90s and low 100s are expected, with heat indices
soaring into the 110s across the lower Mississippi Valley. Warm overnight
conditions in the upper 70s and low 80s will offer little relief, leading
to a dangerous situation for those without access to adequate cooling. A
cold front entering the southern Plains is anticipated to offer cooler and
below average temperatures to Oklahoma, much of northern/western Texas,
and the Mid-South today. Above average temperatures are then anticipated
to remain confined to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the start of the
weekend, with afternoon highs into the mid-to-upper 90s.

An active and stormy weather pattern over the central U.S. is expected to
bring heightened chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall,
which could impact holiday gatherings through early this weekend. A
developing area of low pressure over the Northern Plains is forecast to
team up with a lingering frontal boundary stretching from the lower Great
Lakes to the southern Plains to trigger some meteorological fireworks.
Thunderstorm chances span from the Southern Plains/Rockies to the
Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley and also eastward to the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding will remain a concern throughout the upper
Midwest as well due to yet another round of thunderstorms overlapping
areas dealing with ongoing river flooding and saturated soils, with
scattered flash flooding also possible between the Ohio Valley and
southern Plains. Today, thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward
with the frontal boundary into much of the eastern third of the country.
Isolated strong to severe storms and flash flooding are possible. The
greatest threat for damaging wind gusts associated with these storms will
be across the upper Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorm chances
associated with daytime heating are possible along the Gulf Coast and
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible throughout
the north-central U.S. this weekend as upper troughing remains over the
region. There’s a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding along a stalled out frontal boundary over portions of
southeastern Virginia down through coastal Carolina on Saturday. Residents
and visitors located within areas expecting severe weather and/or heavy
rainfall are advised to remain weather aware, have multiple ways to
receive warnings, and never drive across flooded roadways.

As we head into the weekend, interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
should pay attention to the future progress of Hurricane Beryl, currently
located in the western Caribbean Sea. Beryl is forecast to weaken into a
tropical storm as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday before
emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Beryl has an
opportunity to re-intensify over the Gulf and turn more northwest toward
the southern tip of Texas by the end of this forecast period Saturday
evening.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jul 04 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 04 2024 – 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024

…Extremely dangerous and record-breaking heatwave to impact much of the
West through this weekend…

…One more day of oppressive heat and humidity across the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley today before steamy temperatures focus over
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast…

…Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible throughout parts of
the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southern Plains this Independence Day…

A significant and extremely dangerous heatwave is set to build throughout
the West to end this week and into the extended holiday weekend, with
several days of record-breaking heat forecast. An upper-level high
situated just off the West Coast today is forecast to strengthen and
reorient directly over the western U.S. by Friday. This pattern will
support well above average temperatures over California and into southwest
Oregon today before heat spreads further throughout the western U.S. this
weekend. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the 105-115F range
for interior California away from the immediate coastline, as well as
across much of the Desert Southwest. Locally higher temperatures into the
120s are possible in the typical hot spots of the Desert Southwest.
Searing afternoon temperatures will also spread into the Northwest and
parts of the central Great Basin, with widespread highs rising into the
90s and low 100s. Dozens of daily record high temperatures are possible,
expressing the rarity of this early-July heatwave. The duration of this
heat is also concerning as scorching above average temperatures are
forecast to linger into next week. Heat impacts can compound over time,
therefore it is important to remain weather aware and follow the advice of
local officials. This level of heat throughout parts of the Mojave Desert
and Sacramento/San Joaquin valleys of California could pose a risk to
anyone if proper heat safety is not followed. It is imperative to stay
hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in buildings with sufficient
air-conditioning when possible. It is also equally as important to check
on the safety of vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.

Oppressive heat and humidity will also be found throughout the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley today, while expanding eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast for the end of the week. High temperatures
rising into the upper 90s and low 100s are expected, with heat indices
soaring into the 110s across the lower Mississippi Valley. Warm overnight
conditions in the upper 70s and low 80s will offer little relief, leading
to a dangerous situation for those without access to adequate cooling. A
cold front entering the southern Plains is anticipated to offer cooler and
below average temperatures to Oklahoma, much of northern/western Texas,
and the Mid-South by Friday. Above average temperatures are then
anticipated to confine to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the start of
the weekend, with afternoon highs into the mid-to-upper 90s. If planning
to spend an extended amount of time outdoors this Fourth of July, be sure
to use caution and act quickly if you see signs of heat-related illnesses.

An active and stormy weather pattern over the central U.S. is expected to
create chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, which could
impact holiday gatherings through early this weekend. A developing area of
low pressure over the northern Plains is forecast to progress into the
upper Midwest by tonight and team up with a lingering frontal boundary
stretching from the lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains to trigger
some meteorological fireworks. Thunderstorm chances span from the southern
Plains/Rockies to the middle/upper Mississippi Valley and also eastward to
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However, the greatest threat for strong
to severe thunderstorms will be near/along the frontal boundary through
parts of the middle/upper Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Damaging
wind gusts and frequent lightning are the most likely weather hazard
associated with these Fourth of July storms. Flash flooding will remain a
concern throughout the upper Midwest as well due to yet another round of
thunderstorms overlapping areas dealing with ongoing river flooding and
saturated soils, with scattered flash flooding also possible between the
Ohio Valley and southern Plains. On Friday, thunderstorms will continue to
progress eastward with the frontal boundary into much of the eastern third
of the country. Isolated strong to severe storms and flash flooding are
possible. The greatest threat for damaging wind gusts associated with
these storms will be across the upper Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, daily
thunderstorm chances associated with daytime heating are possible along
the Gulf Coast and Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
possible throughout the north-central U.S. this weekend as upper troughing
remains over the region. Residents and visitors located within areas
expecting severe weather and/or heavy rainfall are advised to remain
weather aware, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and never drive
across flooded roadways.

Have a safe Independence Day!

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 03 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 03 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 05 2024

…Dangerous heatwave to impact much of the West, while oppressive heat
and humidity also swelter areas from the Southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic…

…Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible over the next few days
across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley…

Record-breaking and dangerous heat is forecast to make this Fourth of July
week a scorcher across much of the West and from the southern Plains to
the Mid-Atlantic. Over 110 million residents are currently under
heat-related watches, warnings, and advisories throughout 21 states as of
early this morning. An upper-level high situated just off the West Coast
today is forecast to strengthen and reorient directly over the western
U.S. by the end of the week. This pattern will support well above average
temperatures over California today before heat spreads further along the
West Coast by the end of the week. High temperatures are forecast to reach
into the 105-115F range throughout interior California away from the
immediate coastline, as well as into much of the Desert Southwest.
Afternoon temperatures will also begin to increase across much of Oregon
and Washington by Thursday and Friday, with widespread highs soaring into
the 90s. Dozens of record highs are possible, expressing the rarity of
this early-July heatwave. The duration of this heat is also concerning as
scorching above average temperatures are forecast to linger into next
week. Heat impacts can compound over time, therefore it is important to
remain weather aware and follow the advice of local officials. This level
of heat throughout the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys of California
could pose a risk to anyone if proper heat safety is not followed. This
includes staying hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in buildings with
sufficient air-conditioning. It is also very important to check on the
safety of vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.

Oppressive heat and humidity will also be found throughout the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley into the Independence Day holiday
while also expanding eastward to the Mid-Atlantic for the end of the week.
High temperatures rising into the upper 90s and low 100s are expected,
with heat indices soaring into the 110s across the lower Mississippi
Valley. Warm overnight conditions in the upper 70s and low 80s will offer
little relief, leading to a dangerous situation for those without access
to adequate cooling. A cold front entering the southern Plains is
anticipated to offer cooler and below average temperatures to Oklahoma and
much of northern/western Texas by Friday.

An active and stormy weather pattern over the central U.S. is expected to
create chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, which could
impact holiday gatherings this week. A developing area of low pressure
over the central High Plains today forecast to progress into the upper
Midwest by Thursday along with a lingering frontal boundary stretching
from the lower Great Lakes to the central Plains are anticipated to be the
triggers for some meteorological fireworks. For today, the best chances
for scattered flash flooding due to thunderstorms capable of producing
intense rainfall rates is forecast between eastern Kansas and the Ohio
Valley along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Instances of severe
weather (mainly associated with damaging wind gusts) are also possible,
with chances for severe storms also located in parts of the
northern/central High Plains closer to the developing low pressure system.
By Independence Day, thunderstorm chances span from the southern
Plains/Rockies to the middle/upper Mississippi Valley and also eastward to
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However, the greatest threat for strong
thunderstorms turning severe resides over parts of eastern Kansas,
northeast Oklahoma, and southern/central Missouri. Damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning are the most likely weather hazard associated with
these Fourth of July storms, with isolated strong storms also possible
into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding will
remain a concern throughout the upper Midwest as well due to yet another
round of thunderstorms overlapping areas dealing with ongoing river
flooding and saturated soils. Portions of southern Minnesota, eastern
South Dakota, western Wisconsin, and northern Iowa currently have the
highest probabilities (70-90%) for at least 1 inch of rain on Thursday.
Residents and visitors located within areas expecting severe weather
and/or heavy rainfall this week are advised to remain weather aware, have
multiple ways to receive warnings, and never drive across flooded
roadways.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 02 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 02 2024 – 12Z Thu Jul 04 2024

…Dangerously hot conditions to impact much of the southern Plains, lower
Mississippi Valley, and western U.S. this week…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible over portions of the
Midwest through midweek…

…Unsettled weather with localized flash flooding chances continue across
the Southeast and southern Rockies…

Over 60 million residents are currently under heat-related watches,
warnings, and advisories this morning as early-July heat swelters much of
the south-central and western United States. The weather pattern
responsible for the potentially record-breaking heat includes upper-level
ridging just off the West Coast and and a separate upper ridge over the
south-central U.S. today before sliding to the east by midweek. For the
southern Plains, high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 90s
and low 100s. When combined with elevated humidity levels, heat indices
are forecast to rise into the 110s across the lower Mississippi Valley and
Gulf Coast. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories currently span
from Kansas/Missouri to the Gulf Coast States. After enjoying a refreshing
start to the workweek, the Midwest and East Coast can expect a gradual
return to muggy summer warmth by Wednesday as surface high pressure
reorients itself off the East Coast and ushers in southerly flow. Extreme
heat building throughout the West Coast and more specifically interior
California this week will be particularly dangerous for those without
effective cooling. High temperatures away from the immediate coastline are
forecast to reach into the 105-115F range, which could break numerous
daily records in the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. Heat begins to
build northward on Independence Day as highs into the 90s reach Oregon and
interior Washington. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Heat Advisories
go into effect today for some and stretch from southwest Washington to the
Desert Southwest. The duration of this heat wave is concerning as the
current forecast keeps scorching conditions in place through at least the
end of the week. This magnitude and duration of heat could pose a danger
to the public if proper heat safety is not followed. This includes staying
hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in properly air-conditioned
buildings. Additionally, it is very important to check on vulnerable
friends, family, and neighbors to confirm their safety.

Active and stormy weather associated with a few storm systems progressing
from the northern Rockies to the Midwest this week will create fireworks
of their own this holiday week. Initially, a cold front swinging from the
upper Midwest to the Great Lakes by early Wednesday is forecast to spark
numerous thunderstorms from northeast Kansas to central Wisconsin. Some
storms could turn severe and produce damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes,
and large hail from northeast Kansas to southern Iowa. This area is
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center as having an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe weather. Thunderstorms are also expected to contain
intense rainfall rates as elevated levels of atmospheric moisture content
remain in place. Flood Watches have been issued for much of Iowa, with the
threat of scattered flash floods also encompassing much of the Midwest
today. For areas experiencing swollen rivers from prior rainfall, any
additional heavy rain could exacerbate flooding concerns. By Wednesday, a
cold front is forecast to stretch from the lower Great Lakes to the
central/southern Plains and provide a focus for additional potent
thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Once again thunderstorms
are expected to produce the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash
flooding. A separate area of potentially organized convection may impact
the central High Plains, where a greater threat for large hail and
tornadoes exists. The Fourth of July will feature the aforementioned
frontal boundary lingering over the Ohio Valley and lifting as a warm
front over the central Plains as an area of low pressure ejects off the
High Plains. This will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances from the
northern Plains and Midwest to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with the
highest chances for severe weather extending from eastern Kansas to
central/southern Missouri.

Continued sufficient moisture content over the Southwest and southern
Rockies will also aid in the development of daily showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing localized instances of flash flooding
through midweek. Regions most likely to be affected by scattered downpours
include southeast Arizona and New Mexico, with burn scars and sensitive
terrain the most at risk for flash flooding. Meanwhile, a dying stationary
front entering the Southeast from the western Atlantic will also aid in
daily widely scattered thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast, Florida, and
the Southeast coastline/southern Georgia.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 01 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 01 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 03 2024

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue across the southern Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley, while simmering heat builds throughout
California’s Central Valley starting Tuesday…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across parts of the Southeast
coastline today…

…Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat situated over northern Plains
and Midwest early this week…

July kicks off with anomalous and potentially dangerous heat impacting the
south-central U.S. and portions of the West Coast. As of this morning,
over 50 million residents are under heat-related watches, warnings, and
advisories. The upper-level pattern throughout the next few days
responsible for the summer heat consists of ridging just off the West
Coast and over the lower Mississippi Valley, while an upper trough
situates over the northern Rockies and northern Plains. For the central
U.S., high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 90s and low
100s across the southern Plains through midweek. When combined with
elevated humidity levels, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 110s
across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories currently span from Kansas to the Gulf Coast
States. After enjoying a refreshing start to the workweek, the Midwest and
East Coast can expect a gradual return to muggy summer warmth by Wednesday
as surface high pressure reorients itself off the East Coast and ushers in
southerly flow. Extreme heat building throughout the West Coast and more
specifically interior California this week will also be particularly
dangerous for those without effective cooling. High temperatures away from
the immediate coastline are forecast to reach into the 100-110F range,
which could break numerous daily records in the San Joaquin and Sacramento
valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and
Heat Advisories go into effect as early as Tuesday and span from southern
Oregon to the low desert of southeast California. The duration of this
heat wave is concerning as the current forecast keeps scorching conditions
in place through at least the end of the week. This level of heat could
pose a danger to the entire population if proper heat safety is not
followed. This includes staying hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in
properly air-conditioned buildings. Additionally, it is very important to
check on vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors to confirm their safety.

A cold front sliding down the East Coast today is forecast to slow its
southerly motion as it intersects the Southeast coastline, with developing
thunderstorms along the boundary. Some storms are expected to contain
intense rainfall rates and slow propagation, which creates the threat for
flash flooding. Parts of the South Carolina coastline, including the city
of Charleston, has been highlighted as having a Moderate Risk (level 3/4)
of Excessive Rainfall today. Areas most at risk for flooding are locations
with poor drainage, where heavy rainfall coincides with the afternoon high
tide, and in urbanized communities. Be sure to remain weather aware and
always remember to never drive through flooded roads.

Additionally, a storm system exiting the northern Rockies this morning is
anticipated to create some pre-Independence Day fireworks across the
northern Plains and Midwest through midweek as the threat of heavy rain
and severe weather slides eastward with time. Severe thunderstorm chances
are centered over Nebraska South Dakota today, with neighboring states
included in the potential for potent thunderstorms capable of containing
damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail. Of potentially greater concern
throughout the upper Mississippi Valley is the prospect for more heavy
rainfall over saturated soils and swollen rivers. As approaching frontal
boundaries provide a focus for several clusters of thunderstorms, areas of
intense rainfall rates are possible throughout the northern Plains and
upper Midwest today before sliding gradually eastward on Tuesday, but
still remaining centered over the Midwest. Probabilities for at least 1
inch of rain are high (70-90%) for much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska,
southern Minnesota, central/southern Wisconsin, and far northwest Illinois
through Tuesday. This next round of heavy rain could create instances of
flash flooding as well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding across areas
still recovering from last weeks heavy rainfall.

Continued sufficient moisture content over the Southwest and southern
Rockies will also aid in daily showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing localized instances of flash flooding. Regions most likely to be
affected by scattered downpours include Arizona, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado, with burn scars and sensitive terrain the most at
risk for flash flooding.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 30 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 02 2024

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue for the Southeast through the
end of the weekend, while simmering heat builds across the southern Plains
and California’s Central Valley early this week…

…Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat for the East Coast today…

…Showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners/Southwest over the next
few days; wet weather returns to the upper Midwest by Monday…

The transition to July will continue to feature areas of potentially
dangerous heat throughout parts of the southern U.S. and California. At
the upper levels, higher pressure over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will focus much of the heat over the south-central U.S.
over the next few days before ridging begins to build toward the West
Coast by Tuesday. This equates to high temperatures in the mid-to-upper
90s today from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. This level of heat
and the potential for maximum temperatures into the low 100s are expected
to remain throughout the south-central U.S. through at least Tuesday,
while much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic cools off behind a cold
front. Overnight temperatures are expected to be quite warm over the
southern Plains and not offer much time for relief after scorching daytime
temperatures. In fact, several daily warm minimum temperature records
could be broken/tied over the next few days in this region. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories currently stretch from Texas to New Jersey.
For California, a dangerous and long-duration heat event is forecast to
begin on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the triple digits, which
has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches to be posted. These
readings will impact interior valley locations and areas away from the
immediate coastline. Residents and visitors are urged to follow proper
heat safety as this level of heat could be deadly for anyone without
effective cooling.

Thunderstorms and instances of heavy rain are forecast to impact parts of
the East Coast, Midwest, and Four Corners/Southwest over the next few
days. A potent cold front ushering in a comfortable airmass to the Great
Lakes and Midwest today will continue to trek towards the East Coast while
sparking numerous showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could turn
severe between Maine and the Carolinas, with damaging wind gusts the
primary weather hazard. Heavy rain could also lead to isolated flash
floods between New England and the Southeast. This same frontal boundary
is anticipated to focus additional thunderstorm chances on Monday across
the Southeast. The flash flood threat is expected to be highest across
coastal South Carolina and southeast Georgia, where slow-moving storms
could produce a few inches of rainfall in a very short period of time.

The other notable weather system impacting the Lower 48 at the midway
point of the year is forecast to push from the Intermountain West to the
upper Midwest by early this week. Lingering rainfall chances and the
potential for flash flooding is expected to continue as the upper trough
traversing the western U.S. maintains a fresh flow of moisture-rich air
into the Southwest and southern Rockies. Flash Flood Watches remain in
effect across parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah. On the dry side of
the system, gusty winds and low relative humidity are anticipated to
create Critical Fire Weather across parts of the central Great Basin
today. Meanwhile, areas of robust thunderstorms could turn severe by this
evening throughout the northern High Plains as an area of low pressure
develops. This low pressure system is then forecast to spread unsettled
weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. Scattered
severe thunderstorms are possible, with an elevated threat for tornadoes,
damaging wind gusts, and large hail over parts of central Nebraska. For
the upper Midwest, any heavy rain will be unwelcome as ongoing river
flooding impacts the region. Any additional rainfall could exacerbate
flooding concerns, with the potential for numerous thunderstorms creating
an increasing flash flood risk for this part of the country. As the system
continues to progress eastward on Tuesday and an attached cold front slows
its forward progress over the Midwest and central Plains, additional
chances for severe weather and heavy rain are expected to continue.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 29 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 01 2024

…Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat enters the lower Great Lakes
and northern Mid-Atlantic today before sliding to the East Coast on
Sunday…

…Unsettled weather remains throughout parts of the southern Rockies and
Southwest over the next few days, while wet weather returns to the upper
Midwest by Monday…

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue from parts of the southern
Plains to the Southeast this weekend…

A surface low pressure system currently crossing the upper Great Lakes and
anticipated to swing through southeast Canada this weekend will help push
a cold front into the lower Great Lakes by tonight. This cold front is
expected to spark scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from the Ohio
Valley to the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic, with damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes the most likely weather hazards,
particularly from eastern Ohio to central Pennsylvania. Heavy rain may
also lead to instances of flash flooding throughout this region and into
the interior Northeast. As the cold front nears the East Coast on Sunday,
another round of robust thunderstorms are possible between the Southeast
and New England, with some storms containing frequent lightning and gusty
winds. This same frontal boundary will also be responsible for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms extending westward across the
mid-Mississippi Valley, central/southern Plains, and southern Rockies this
weekend. The slow-moving nature of thunderstorms over the sensitive
terrain of the southern Rockies and Southwest will create additional daily
chances for flash flooding through at least early next week. More
specifically, parts of northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
southeast Arizona are most likely to be dealing with thunderstorms
producing intense rainfall rates this weekend.

The next upper-level trough to traverse the Intermountain West is forecast
to spark thunderstorms across the northern High Plains on Sunday prior to
spreading rainfall chances into the upper Midwest on Monday. Heavy rain is
not welcome for much of the upper Mississippi and middle Missouri valleys
as ongoing river flooding continues. However, the threat for another round
of organized thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates
and severe weather has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall to be issued for much of the region on Monday.

Dangerously high heat and humidity is forecast to continue across the
south-central and southeastern U.S. through the start of July. High
temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s and low 100s can be expected, with
heat index values up to 110 degrees throughout the lower Mississippi
Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Overnight temperatures will not
offer much relief and only dip into the low 80s and upper 70s. In fact,
the warm overnight temperatures are forecast to break dozens of daily
records and potentially a few June monthly records from the southern
Plains to Mid-Atlantic. Much cooler weather and below average temperatures
are forecast to follow high pressure as it builds southward from the
northern Plains today to the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday.
Comfortable high temperatures in the 70s with mostly sunny skies can be
anticipated across these locations.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Fri Jun 28 2024 – 00Z Sun Jun 30 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected across portions of the
northern/central Plains today and into the Midwest Friday…

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue for parts of the South and
Southeast…

…Monsoon-like conditions persist today in the Four Corners region…

A strong upper level trough is swinging across the Pacific Northwest today
and pushing a surface frontal system southeast across the Intermountain
West into the northern and central Plains. Conditions will be supportive
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the
Plains, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the
northern and central Plains with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms today. Potential severe storm hazards will include very
large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy
downpours may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding across
portions of the Plains, especially where soils are saturated from recent
heavy rains. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes two Slight Risk
areas (level 2/4) in the northern and central Plains where flash flooding
will be most likely.

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today also highlights a Slight Risk
area (level 2/4) over the Four Corners region where persistent
monsoon-like rains are ongoing. Precipitation chances will decrease on
Friday for the Four Corners region as the frontal system approaches from
the north, but the front is forecast to stall and lift back northwards as
a warm front over the weekend. This will allow moisture to stream into the
Southwest ahead of the front, continuing rain chances in portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend.

The frontal system will push across much of the Central U.S. and lift a
warm front north across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Precipitation chances will spread east as the system progresses, expanding
the severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threats into portions of the
Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms from the central Plains towards the Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley on Friday, and WPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall for this area as well. Potential storm hazards will be
large hail, damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and locally heavy rain.

This weekend, the broad frontal system will push into the eastern U.S.
while the back end lifts north across the Intermountain West.
Precipitation chances will extend from the Northeast down across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central/southern Plains and Southwest. The
potential for severe weather will decrease as the upper level energy
becomes less organized, and the Storm Prediction Center has only a small
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of Ohio and
western Pennsylvania. The risk for flash flooding will decrease as well,
and only isolated instances of flash flooding are anticipated along the
frontal system.

Temperature-wise, dangerously hot conditions will persist across parts of
the South and Southeast through the weekend. High temperatures near 100
degrees will be common across the southern Plains and Texas, and high
temperatures will likely reach above 90 degrees each day in much of the
Southeast. High humidity will make these temperatures feel even hotter,
and heat indices may reach as high as 105-110 degrees. Daily summertime
convection will bring some relief to the Southeast, but mainly dry
conditions are forecast across Texas through the weekend. Overnight lows
will also remain above average in the 70s and 80s, providing little relief
from the heat.