Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 11, 2024
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 11 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 11 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 13 2024…Scattered thunderstorms capable of containing locally heavy rainfall
are forecast across much of the Southwest, Intermountain West, and
Plains……Lingering flash flood potential exists across the coastal Carolinas
over the next few days……Sultry summer heat returns to much of the Southern Plains and central
Gulf Coast States this week…The weather pattern through early this week will feature daily chances for
thunderstorms from the Southwest and Intermountain West into the Plains,
as well as Florida and coastal sections of the Southeast. An upper level
low in southeast Canada will also provide scattered precipitation chances
to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Anomalous atmospheric moisture content
throughout the Southwest and Great Basin when combined with shortwaves
riding overtop of an upper ridge set up over the region will provide
enough coverage of thunderstorms to support the potential for scattered
flash flooding today from northwest Arizona to central Utah. Complex
terrain and the sensitive slot canyon region of Utah increase the threat
for flooding impacts. Additional chances for heavy rain extend to the
southern California ranges and the remainder of the Southwest and Four
Corners region over the next few days. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft and
nearby frontal boundaries will help aid thunderstorm development across
the Great Plains. A few rounds of organized convection north of a warm
front forecast to stretch from Oklahoma to the lower Mississippi Valley
could lead to instances of flash flooding through tonight across parts of
eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northwest
Arkansas. Localized downpours associated with thunderstorm activity are
also possible throughout the remainder of the central and northern Plains
today, with isolated severe storms a possibility for the central High
Plains into the Black Hills region. This unsettled weather pattern is
anticipated to remain in place early this week across the central United
States.A lingering frontal boundary draped across the Southeast will provide a
focus for additional thunderstorm activity over the next few days,
overlapping with saturated ground conditions from last week’s widespread
heavy rainfall. As a result, localized downpours could result in
additional flash flooding throughout the coastal Carolinas. Residents and
visitors are reminded to avoid driving through flooded roadways and to not
swim or play in floodwater.For much of the Nation, summer heat will be on hold to start the week as a
cooler weather pattern takes shape compared to previous weeks. However,
building heat will be felt throughout the southern Plains and Deep South
as highs soar back into the upper 90s and triple digits by Monday. When
combined with elevated humidity levels, afternoons will feel closer to
heat index values of 110 degrees in the lower Mississippi Valley and
immediate Gulf Coast. It is also worth noting that overnight temperatures
will not offer much relief as lows only dip into the upper 70s and low
80s. This level of heat could affect anyone without effective cooling
and/or hydration, so it is important to follow proper heat safety tips and
check on vulnerable individuals.Elsewhere, poor air quality due to ongoing wildfires throughout the
northern Great Basin is expected to continue. Upper level winds are
forecast to carry smoke eastward over parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Mid-Atlantic, leading to hazy skies for some locations.To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.