25Sep2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Market’s Finally Have an Up Day – But Not by Much

September 25, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 43 points or 0.13%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
  • Gold $1935 down $11.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.10,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.540% down 0.10 points,
  • USD index $105.94 up $0.36,
  • Bitcoin $26,531 up $101

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average edged down to –0.14 in August 2023 from –0.15 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions.  I consider the CFNAI the best coincident economic indicator, and the 3 month moving average is used for economic forecasting as it removes the volatility of the monthly data. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70. Still, since the value is below zero, it means the economy is expanding below the historical trend rate of growth.

Growth in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey resumed in September 2023 with the production index rebounding nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of the year. The new orders sub-index pushed up 11 points to -5.2, a reading still indicative of falling demand though not at the pace seen in the past several months. The regional Fed surveys are volatile, and I have seen no indication yet that manufacturing is out of a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Armenia’s Western Pivot Sparks Unease In Moscow
  • Chevron Getting Ready For New Oil Drilling In Venezuela
  • Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea Change
  • The Spread Between Brent And WTI Has Aligned With Transatlantic Freight Costs
  • ChatGPT can now ‘speak,’ listen and process images, OpenAI says
  • Merck Covid drug linked to virus mutations that can spread between people, new study says
  • Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end strike after nearly 150 days
  • Bonds & Bullion Dumped, Dollar Jumps As Shutdown & Student-Loan Cliff Loo
  • Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in ‘limbo’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 25, 2023

September 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 25 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 27 2023

…Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding exists over
parts of the Upper Midwest through Tuesday…

…Unsettled weather pattern with daily chances for widely scattered
thunderstorms to set up over Florida this week…

…A few rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall forecast throughout
northern California and the Pacific Northwest into midweek…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 24, 2023

September 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 27 2023

…There are two areas of Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England and second over the
Southern Plain and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…

 

Consumer Credit and Inflation: Part 4

September 23, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Household and Nonprofit Organization Credit (HNO) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From a photo by Stephen Phillips – Hostreviews.co.uk, on Unsplash.

What about El Nino? September 23, 2023

September 23, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Since it is almost certain we will have El Nino this winter and a strong one at that, it is useful to think about what that means for precipitation in the lower 48 states.

–

The above shows El Nino winters from 1950 to today organized from upper left to lower right by the strength of the ENSO ONI Index. It may be missing one or even two recent El Ninos. I know how to create this sort of graphic but I prefer to use one that has been created by others. The point is that there is a lot of variation among El Nino winters. In the past, I have done an analysis for the state where I live which is New Mexico to see if the phases of the AMO and PDO seem to have an impact and they do. I am not aware of any published paper on that subject. I have seen papers that look at the impact of the Hawaiin High on how wet certain parts of California get during an El Nino. The fact is we do not really know how El Nino works partly because we have so few El Nino winters to analyze.

–

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 23, 2023

September 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 00Z Sun Sep 24 2023 – 00Z Tue Sep 26 2023

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There are two areas of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and second over the Southern Plain and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley…

…Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…

22 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Friday’s Roller-Coaster Session Ends Fractionally Down With The Nasdaq And S&P 500 Posting Worst Week Since March

September 22, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.09%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.23%,
  • Gold $1,945 up $5.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.72,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.434% down 0.002 points,
  • USD Index $105.60 down $0.002,
  • Bitcoin $26,542 down $38,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -11 to 630 Canada unchanged 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil, Gas Drilling Slows To 19-Month Low In U.S.
  • Detroit’s Auto Giants Reel As UAW Strikes Bite Hard
  • Gas Production From Giant Groningen Field To Halt Completely On October 1
  • A Potentially Bearish Signal For Oil Markets
  • The U.S. Navy Is Reviving A Top Secret Surveillance Network
  • Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis
  • Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high
  • Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
  • VP Kamala Harris Becomes Biden’s ‘Gun Czar’ As War On Second Amendment Goes In Overdrive
  • Amazon Prime Video content to start including ads next year

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook September 22, 2023 – Some Changes from what was Issued Last Month.

September 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for October. It will be updated on the last day of September.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for October and the three-month outlook for OND 2023. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature.  This tells us that November and December will be different than October to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through October/November/December of 2024. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for October and the three-month period Oct/Nov/Dec.  Small maps are provided beyond that through December of next year with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps and the changes which starting in the Spring of 2024 are significantly different from what was issued a month ago. [Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino lasting longer than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months. It seems to me that NOAA was showing some of these as El Nino months last month but has changed them to ENSO Neutral months in what they issued on September 21, 2023.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 22, 2023

September 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Valid 00Z Sat Sep 23 2023 – 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023

…Tropical Storm Ophelia is forecast to make landfall over eastern North
Carolina early on Saturday, bringing squally heavy rain, threat of flash
flooding farther inland, and storm surge to coastal communities up the
Mid-Atlantic states…

…Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions
of the central U.S., including chances for excessive rainfall…

…Summer heat continues across portions of the southern Plains, while
much cooler temperatures begin to moderate throughout the Intermountain
West and northern Rockies…

cone graphic

 

[Key Messages]

 

21 Sept 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Closes Sharply Lower For Third Session Sinking the S&P And Nasdaq Down Almost 2%

September 21, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 370 points or 1.08%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.82%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.64%,
  • Gold $1,940 down $27.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.02,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.486% up 0.139 points,
  • USD Index $105.39 up $0.270,
  • Bitcoin $26,596 down $368,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed’s September 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey declined as indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,500 to 224,750. There is no indication of an economic slowdown in these unemployment claims.

Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

The National Association of Realtor’s existing home sales declined 0.7% month-over-month and down 15.3% year-over-year. Total housing inventory declined 14.1% from one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $407,100, an increase of 3.9% from August 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way. Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run. The South had a lighter decline in sales from a year ago due to greater regional job growth since coming out of the pandemic lockdown.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023). Note that the authors of this index continue to project a recession but I have yet to see any recession indication in the broad economy inside the data I review. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year. The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Germany Makes New Energy Savings Measures Mandatory
  • New BRICS Members Solidify The Bloc’s Renewable Leadership
  • MBS To Fox: Saudi Arabia Will Get Nuclear Arms If Iran Does
  • Russia Attacks Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Ahead Of Winter
  • Russia Curbs Gasoline And Diesel Exports To Stabilize Domestic Prices
  • ow tumbles more than 300 points to notch third day of losses amid fears of higher rates, government shutdown
  • Here’s everything Microsoft announced at its Surface and Copilot event in New York
  • Bitcoin sinks below $27,000 after Fed signals keeping rates higher for longer: CNBC Crypto World
  • 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest level since 2007 as jobless claims decline
  • Musk’s SpaceX Countersues DOJ, Says Case Over Refusal To Hire Refugees Is Unconstitutional
  • Bitcoin Vs Ethereum: A Culture War Rooted In First Principles
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield carves out another 17-year high after hawkish Fed meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.