Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 9, 2023

October 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 09 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift from the Interior West into the Great Plains…

…Below average temperatures continue for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
while lake effect showers persist through Tuesday…

…Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for southern Texas on Tuesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 8, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee remnants will hit Maine Today

October 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 08 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023

…Heavy rain from the remnants of Philippe will come to an end across
Maine this morning but lingering areas of flooding and gusty winds will
remain into the day…

…Below average temperatures for much of the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.
along with lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms downwind of the
Great Lakes…

…Colder and wetter weather to arrive on the West Coast Monday, but above
average warmth to remain for the Interior West and Rockies..

cone graphic

Information on Droughts October 7, 2023

October 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Drought has been a problem this year in the corn and soybean growing area but it has been an ongoing problem for some time. Global Warming makes it worse especially in areas where it leads to reduced precipitation. But in all areas, it results in higher rates of evaporation and possible transpiration.

We are not going into drought in detail in this article but I am showing you some of what comes across my desk from NOAA that you might find interesting.

You need to click HERE to watch the droughts unfold. Then you can scroll down to see how drought unfolded since 1921. It uses different metrics than the current drought monitor which allows us to go back farther in time. It is very dramatic. It was not possible for me to directly show the images in this article.

Now we will take a look a the drought history from 2000 to 2020

I have not included the criteria for the various categories of drought but you can see that since the Drought Monitor has been in existence drought has been fairly prevalent with short periods of minimal drought.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 7, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine

October 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 07 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023

…Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning…

…Much cooler temperatures to spread eastward from the central U.S. into
much of the eastern U.S. this weekend…

…Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West…

cone graphic

06 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Surges Sharply Higher After Wall Street’s Jobs Report; But Is It Enough To Continue A Bull Run?

October 6, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 288 points or 0.87%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.60%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.18%, (low 4,220)
  • Gold $1,845 up $12.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.57,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.795% up 0.079 points,
  • USD Index $106.07 down $0.260,
  • Bitcoin $27,980 up $484,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 619 Canada -11 to 180

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The markets were hoping for small employment gains in expectation that the Fed would stop raising the federal funds rate but instead, the total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September 2023 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%. The largest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (96,000); government (73,000); and health care (65,900). Any job gains over 150,000 is considered enough to provide jobs to those newly entering the workforce. The September employment gain was the second largest of 2023.

Interestingly, the household survey of the employment report showed only 90,000 employment gains against the headline establishment survey gain of 336,000 which throws into question the large gains of the establishment survey.

In August 2023, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9%, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8%. I personally do not like the Federal Reserve’s methods for calculating changes in growth – I use year-over-year growth to remove the volatility. Using year-over-year methodology, consumer credit growth fell to 4.0% (blue line on the graph below), and adjusting for inflation growth was 2.0% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The bottom line is that overall consumer credit is growing around the historical average, however, credit card (revolving credit) use has returned to the levels seen in the higher inflation periods of 1970s to 2000.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • WTO Forecasts Global Trade Slowdown Amid Economic Headwinds
  • U.S. Oil Rigs Decrease for Second Week Running, Gas Rigs Rise
  • Central Banks Continue To Boost Gold
  • Oil Traders Should Be Weary Of A Bear Trap
  • Russia Escalates War With Nuclear Tests And Civilian Killings
  • Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks reverse sharp losses after hot jobs report: Live updates
  • Here’s where the jobs are for September 2023 — in one chart
  • Wall Street will seek confirmation inflation is easing in the week ahead after Friday’s jobs report
  • 10-year Treasury yield rises after strong U.S. jobs report
  • Market Extra: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market
  • Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 6, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine

October 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 06 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast on Saturday…

…There is a Freeze Warnings/Watches over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains overnight Friday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley…

cone graphic

05 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Investors Traded Along The Unchanged Line, Pausing For The Fridays Job Report Finally Closing Mostly Flat In The Red

October 5, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 10 points or 0.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.13%, (low 4,226)
  • Gold $1,835 down $0.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $1.73,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.712% down 0.023 points,
  • USD Index $106.33 down $0.470,
  • Bitcoin $27,475 down $175,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The labor shortage continues to hinder Main Street as 43% (seasonally adjusted) of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from August. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Small business owners have spent the first three quarters of 2023 working to recruit and retain qualified employees for their businesses, but it still remains a top challenge. Owners continue to raise compensation to attract the right employees.

The goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were down 6.9% year-over-year. August imports were down 6.3% year-over-year. The graph below adjusts the import and export year-over-year values for inflation and deflation. The bottom line is that imports are telling us that consumer spending is weak.

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 211,000 to 211,250.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Zirconium Nitride Outshines Platinum In Fuel Cell Performance
  • The Rise Of Nuclear Power In The Middle East
  • Argentina’s Oil Production Surges As Political Instability Soars
  • India Warns That OPEC+ Oil Supply Cuts Could Have Unintended Consequences
  • U.S. Shale Is Reluctant To Drill Despite Rising Oil Prices
  • S&P 500 closes slightly lower as traders brace for Friday’s big jobs report: Live updates
  • GM’s stock hits three-year low amid UAW strike, potential air bag recall
  • Trust In Congress Below 20% Third Month In A Row
  • As 75,000 Kaiser healthcare workers walk off the job, Tenet Healthcare could be next to face a strike
  • Cathie Woods’ ETFs sold more than $25 million worth of Tesla stock

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 5, 2023

October 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 05 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Thursday and the Northeast on Friday…

…There is a Freeze Watch over parts of the Northern Plains overnight
Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast…

cone graphic

04 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall, S&P 500 Rises, Dow Closes In The Green After Roller-Coaster Ride Across The Unchanged Line

October 4, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 127 points or 0.39%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.81%, (low 4,110)
  • Gold $1,838 down $3.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 down $4.50,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.720% down 0.082 points,
  • USD Index $106.71 down $0.290,
  • Bitcoin $27,654 up $375,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September 2023 and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year. We will see if the BLS employment report agrees on Friday – but the gain is worse than any month since January 2021.

In September 2023, the Institute of Supply Management Services PMI registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than August. The composite index indicated growth in September for the ninth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). A reading below 55 indicates a slow economy.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2023 improved 0.5% year-over-year – 0.6% inflation-adjusted. Manufacturing remains in the doldrums.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Delays Aid To Ukraine Amid Domestic Political Disputes
  • Battery Lifespan Could Double With New Breakthrough
  • Investors Prioritize Profits Over Green Credentials
  • Germany Reactivates Coal Plants For Winter Power Boost
  • Oil Prices Tumble As The EIA Reports A Significant Gasoline Build
  • OPEC+ Leaves Oil Production Levels Unchanged
  • Dow adds 100 points to snap 3-day losing streak as Treasury yields ease from 16-year highs: Live updates
  • GM secures new $6 billion credit line as UAW strike costs reach $200 million
  • Economic Report: U.S. jobs report forecast: 170,000 new workers and 3.7% unemployment

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.