NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on October 12, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

October 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations. That is concerning as some of the other Weather Advisory Organizations are predicting a “Historically Strong” El Nino.

We have included an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker and a link to a fairly comprehensive article we wrote on El Nino back in September.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4).  There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0C).  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.  Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons.  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. We see that this month there is a substantial chance of a “historically strong” event.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%.  However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; ).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO stands for August/September/October. The approach may have changed as IRI (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School) may no longer be involved.  Their website has not been updated this month.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond MJJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are pretty similar.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 13 2023

October 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 13 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023

…Potent low pressure system continues to spread heavy rain and severe
weather across the north-central Plains to the Midwest today…

…Some heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to slide across the
Pennsylvania and northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/early Sunday as the low
re-intensifies near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night/early Sunday…

12 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Stocks Take A Nosedive Mid Session As Rising Rate Fears Spook Traders And Close Moderately In The Red After Recovering From Fall

October 12, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 174 points or 0.51%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.62%, (low 4,325)
  • Gold $1,882 down $5.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $0.07,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.709% up 0.114 points,
  • USD Index $106.57 up $0.750,
  • Bitcoin $26,709 down $55,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose over the last 12 months 3.7% (blue line on the graph below) whilst the CPI-U less food and energy rose 4.1% over the last 12 months (red line on the graph below). I was expecting higher numbers and the BLS suggests inflation levels are being sustained by higher shelter and gasoline.

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 206,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 208,750 to 209,250.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Defies Odds, Races Towards Annual Production Record
  • UAW’s Standoff With Big Three Automakers Intensifies
  • Oil Moves Down On Massive Inventory Build
  • France Tightens Energy-Saving Measures To Avoid Another Crisis
  • Getting to 2% inflation won’t be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty
  • Dow closes more than 150 points lower as inflation data reignites interest rate fears: Live updates
  • Bitcoin’s resilience above $25,000 is a ‘silver lining’ in grim crypto market, says Wolfe Research
  • Israel-Hamas war live updates: Britain orders deployment of military assets to Mediterranean; at least 27 Americans killed
  • Mortgage rates near 8%, an ‘inventory crisis’: Homebuyers face a ‘tricky’ market, expert says
  • Household Budgets Are “On Thin Ice”
  • Mark Hulbert: The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry — but now that’s crumbling

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report October 12, 2023 – Things are looking fairly good. But this can change.

October 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 11, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 8, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It seems like perhaps a little better than an average crop which is very good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning although it is covering a small area than what was forecast for last week.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a report on peanut prices.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze and other warnings.

The following shows how complex weather patterns can be.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 12, 2023

October 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 12 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023

…Significant weather system to bring heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
even higher elevation snow from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes…

…Heavy rain/flash flooding and severe weather likely to continue into
Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast and northern Florida…

11 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Investors Pause Buying Frenzy, But Main Indexes Still Close Fractionally Higher In The Green

October 11, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 66 points or 0.19%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.71%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.43%, (low 4,261)
  • Gold $1,887 up $12.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 down $1.98,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.571% down 0.084 points,
  • USD Index $105.78 down $0.005,
  • Bitcoin $26,759 down $638,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 2.2% for the 12 months that ended in September 2023 (blue line on the graph below). My forecast is that inflation will continue to worsen for the rest of this year.

The meeting minutes for the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for September 19-20, 2023 show participant’s views [major concerns or comments listed below]:

… participants remarked that the finances of some households were coming under pressure amid high inflation and declining savings and that there had been an increasing reliance on credit to finance expenditures. In addition, tighter credit conditions, waning fiscal support for families, and a resumption of student loan payments were viewed by several participants as having the potential to weigh on the growth of consumption. 

… participants noted improved business conditions from an increased ability to hire and retain workers, better-functioning supply chains, or reduced input cost pressures. A few participants commented that their business contacts had reported difficulties passing on cost increases to customers. Several participants judged that, over coming quarters, business activity would be restrained by tighter financial conditions, such as higher interest rates and more constrained access to bank credit.

… Many participants commented that they expected that the autoworkers’ strike would, in the near term, result in a slowdown in production of motor vehicles and parts and possibly put upward pressure on automobile prices, but that these effects would be temporary. 

… Some participants observed that payroll growth remained strong but had slowed in recent months to a pace closer to that consistent with maintaining a constant unemployment rate over time. Most participants commented that the pace of nominal wage increases had moderated, and a few also mentioned that the wage premium for job switchers had come down. They noted, however, that nominal wages were still rising at rates above levels generally assessed to be consistent with the sustained achievement of the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective, given current estimates of trend productivity growth.

… Several participants remarked that, despite the recent rise in energy prices, food and energy prices over the past year had contributed to a decline in overall inflation. … Participants observed that, notwithstanding recent favorable developments, inflation remained well above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective and that elevated inflation was continuing to harm businesses and households—particularly low-income households. 

… Participants generally noted there was still a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. One new source of uncertainty was that associated with the autoworkers’ strike, and many participants observed that an intensification of the strike posed both an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to activity. A majority of participants pointed to upside risks to inflation from rising energy prices that could undo some of the recent disinflation or to the risk that inflation would prove more persistent than expected. 

… A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted. All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks.

… Several participants commented that, with the policy rate likely at or near its peak, the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels. 

… A vast majority of participants continued to judge the future path of the economy as highly uncertain. Many noted data volatility and potential data revisions, or the difficulty of estimating the neutral policy rate, as supporting the case for proceeding carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • New Process Makes Green Hydrogen And Graphene From Plastic
  • Israel-Hamas Conflict Sends Shockwaves Through Steel Market
  • The Nuclear Microreactor Race Is Heating Up
  • Qatar Signs 27-Year Deal To Supply France With LNG
  • U.S. Treasury: G7 Price Cap Has Significantly Reduced Russia’s Oil Income
  • Fed officials see ‘restrictive’ policy staying in place until inflation eases, minutes show
  • Birkenstock slides about 10% in stock market debut after opening at $41 per share
  • Days Of Low VIX Numbered As Financial Conditions Turn The Screw
  • FOMC Minutes Echo ‘Hawkish Tone’ From Meeting; Fed To “Proceed Carefully”
  • The Fed: Fed minutes show officials wary about the outlook and wanting to move carefully

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 11, 2023

October 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 11 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the western U.S. into
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest while above average
temperatures shift into parts of the central/southern Plains and Ohio
Valley…

…Increased orida…threat for heavy rain and flash flooding for portions of
Nebraska/South Dakota into the Upper Midwest and along the east-central
Gulf Coast into northern Fl

…Severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the central Plains today
and Thursday…

10 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Treasury yields Fall, Wall Street Rises, Dow Closes Moderately Higher For Third Session

October 10, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 135 points or 0.40%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.58%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.52%, (low 4,357)
  • Gold $1,874 up $9.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $0.55,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.659% down 0.123 points,
  • USD Index $105.76 down $0.320,
  • Bitcoin $27,397 down $219,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased half of a point in September to 90.8. September’s reading marks the 21st consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from last month and tied with labor quality as the top concern. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy. Sales growth among small businesses have slowed and the bottom line is being squeezed, leaving owners few options beyond raising selling prices for financial relief.

August 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.7% from August 2022. Total inventories were down 1.0% from the revised August 2022 level. The August inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.36. The August 2022 ratio was 1.35. Overall, my view is that this economic sector is little changed from one year ago.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations increased slightly at the short- and medium-term horizons, while they decreased at the longer-term horizon. Labor market expectations were mixed with unemployment expectations deteriorating and perceived job loss risk improving. Households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions deteriorated slightly.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Crude Prices Begin Retreat After Monday’s Surge
  • Copper Prices Decline As Global Renewable Hopes Fall Short
  • U.S. Oil Exports Hit Record In H1: EIA
  • Tesla Vehicles Now Priced To Compete With Traditional ICE Vehicles
  • Investors Dump Renewable Energy Funds At A Record Pace
  • Dow adds more than 100 points to notch third positive day, as falling Treasury yields lift stocks: Live updates
  • There’s a ‘good likelihood’ that the market bottom is in, Fundstrat says
  • Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
  • NY Fed Survey Finds Surge In Household Delinquency Expectations, Worst Since April 2020 Covid Crash
  • People struggle to leave Israel as flights book up

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 10, 2023

October 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 10 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift into parts of the Great Plains…

…Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for portions of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday…

09 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Open Sharply Lower, Then Start Trending Upwards After Discounting Many Israel-Hamas War Fears, Closing Moderately Higher In The Green

October 9, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 197 points or 0.59%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.63%, (low 4,284)
  • Gold $1,876 up $31.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $3.57,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.795% up 0.079 points,
  • USD Index $106.04 up $0.008,
  • Bitcoin $27,614 down $292,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today due to Columbus Day et al

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Prices At The Pump Decline, Trend Set To Continue
  • Why Tin Prices Continue To Decline
  • The New Global Oil Market Order Hangs In The Balance After Hamas Attacks Israel
  • Oil Prices Rally After Hamas Attack Alters Geopolitical Risk Premium
  • Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, as investors shake off rising oil prices from Israel-Hamas war: Live updates
  • Israel orders total siege of Gaza; nine Americans confirmed dead in Hamas attack: Live updates
  • Morgan Stanley says stock market may break down again so buy these top dividend payers
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: General Dynamics, United Airlines, Spotify and more
  • Vast Majority On Wall Street Think Next 100bps Move In 10Y Yields Is Lower
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices rally by more than 4% as Hamas attack on Israel raises risks to Middle East supplies

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.