Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 565 points or 1.70%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.78%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.89%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,992 up $4.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.98,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.672% down 0.119 points,
• USD Index $106.14 down $0.750,
• Bitcoin $35,016 up $450,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In October 2023, 43% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 23%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

The labor market has not eased up much on Main Street. Labor demand is still strong and small business owners are working hard to maintain competitive compensation to retain workers and fill critical open positions. Labor quality is still a top problem among small businesses.

Preliminary nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023.  On the other hand, unit labor costs increased 1.9% year-over-year. I am not a believer in the methodology used – and just passing along the information.

In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 210,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 207,500 to 208,000.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rare Earth Prices Stabilize As Global Production Dynamics Shift
• U.S. Coal Exports To Europe Soar Despite Energy Transition
• New Roofing Materials Offer An Eco-Friendly Answer To Air Conditioning
• Exxon Completes $4.9 Billion Denbury Acquisition
• Europe’s Wind Energy Giants Brace For Massive Losses And Writedowns
• Dow jumps more than 550 points for best day since June as bond yields recede: Live updates
• Jeff Bezos urged Amazon to flood search results with junk ads, FTC alleges
• Why Target Date Funds Fail Investors: A $3 Trillion Delusion
• The Party’s Over: Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 2.3% To 1.2%
• The Fed: Fed maintains freeze on interest rates as it fine-tunes fight against inflation

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 222 points or 0.67%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.64%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.05%, High 4,246: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,989 down $5.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.12,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.761% down 0.114 points,
• USD Index $106.67 up $0.010,
• Bitcoin $34,523 up $40,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Another weak non-farm private employment gains by ADP in October 2021 that showed job growth at 113,000 (blue line on the graph below). We consider 150,000 the breakeven number of jobs growth to support the working population growth. Lately, there has been almost no correlation between ADP and the BLS monthly employment report (which will be issued this Friday).

Construction spending during September 2023 was 8.7% (red line on the graph below) above September 2022 – 4.8% inflation-adjusted (blue line on the graph below). Despite the higher rates for borrowing, construction spending is growing at a good clip.

The number of job openings changed little at 9.6 million on the last business day of September. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.7 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. Over the last 12 months, hires and separations have been trending down – but this decline cannot be correlated to either positive or negative employment gains. Job openings, on the other hand, historically have correlated with employment gains – and suggest a continued modest moderation of employment gains.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 46.7% in October 2023, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 49% recorded in September. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 48.7%, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.5%, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.2% recorded in September. It is our position that manufacturing has been in a recession for at least a year.

The Federal Reserve FOMC concluded its scheduled meeting today stating that economic activity expanded at a strong pace but inflation remains elevated. They added that “Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.” Therefore, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• UK Manufacturing Faces Worst Downturn Since 2008
• Europe’s Renewables Landscape Transforms With Rooftop Solar Adoption
• Researchers Unveil Catalyst To Convert CO2 Into Methane
• What’s Hezbollah’s Next Step?
• U.S. Gasoline Refining Profits Tumble As Demand Weakens
• Shares Of The World’s Top Offshore Wind Firm Drop 20% On Scrapped U.S. Projects
• Stocks rally to start November after Fed decision, Dow gains more than 200 points: Live updates
• Treasury details plans to step up size of bond sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates
• IRS announces 2024 retirement account contribution limits: $23,000 for 401(k) plans, $7,000 for IRAs
• Apple expected to post fourth consecutive quarterly sales decline Thursday
• The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s what that means for your wallet
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield slips below 5% after Fed delivers another pause in interest rate hikes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 124 points or 0.38%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.48%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.65%, High 4,196: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,994 down $12.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $1.10,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.901% up 0.024 points,
• USD Index $106.65 up $0.530,
• Bitcoin $34,478 down $59,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In August 2023, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index increased by 2.6% year over year, the second month of annual increases following two months of annual declines. With the rebound in prices this year, home prices are now up 0.4% compared with the June 2022 peak, but up by 6.4% from the January 2023 bottom. A quote from the Corelogic report:

Persistent mortgage rate increases have put the U.S. housing market in a quagmire, driving home sales activity to the lowest level in 15 years. As of September, year-to-date home sales are trending 22% below last year’s levels and 23% below 2019, according to CoreLogic MLS PIN data. Nevertheless, sales volume may further deteriorate in the coming months as mortgage rates continue to rise. Currently, mortgage rates moving from 3% to 8% wiped out about 36% of homebuyers’ purchasing power. Nevertheless, while existing home sales have slumped, prices have remained remarkably steady.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell -0.1 points to 44.0 from 44.1 in September. It remains below the 48.7 level seen in August but broadly in line with the 2023 average of 44.2. The markets consider the Chicago Business Barometer a peak into the soon-to-be-released ISM manufacturing survey. The current numbers suggest that manufacturing is in a recession in the U.S.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined moderately in October to 102.6 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board summarized the reasons for the low confidence:

Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. Worries around war/conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hedge Funds Bet Big On Uranium Stocks
• U.S. Crude Production Breaks Records
• Gold And Silver Shine As Global Safe Havens
• China’s Economic Woes Weigh On Oil Prices
• Oil Prices Could Test $115 If Hamas-Israel War Escalates Into Regional Conflict
• S&P 500 closes higher Tuesday, but logs first 3-month losing streak since 2020: Live updates
• November is typically the best month of the year for these 4 Dow stocks
• Israel-Hamas war live updates: Dozens of deaths reported in Gaza refugee camp airstrike; Hamas says it clashed with Israeli forces
• Treasury Department announces new Series I bond rate of 5.27% for the next six months
• UAW Strike Ends But Spiking Labor Costs Will Hamper Detroit For Years To Come
• IPO Report: Ares Acquisition Corp., X-energy scrap $1.8B merger due to ‘persistently volatile public markets’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 511 points or 1.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.16%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.20%, (Low 4,133: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $2,006 up $7.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $3.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.879% up 0.034 points,
• USD Index $106.12 down $0.440,
• Bitcoin $34,444 down $145,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey declined in October 2023 but remains in positive growth territory. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a second positive reading after four months in negative territory. It edged down to 5.2, a reading that signals a modest pace of output expansion. Other measures of manufacturing activity showed mixed signals this month. The new orders index remained negative and slipped four points to -8.8. Most other of the regional fed’s manufacturing surveys show manufacturing remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Plunge 3% as Market Weighs Israeli Attack on Gaza
• China Sees Winter Peak Power Demand Surging By 12%
• Cobalt’s Unexpected Plunge Shocks Global Market
• Uranium Demand Hits Decade High As Nuclear Renaissance Gains Traction
• Weaker Asian Market Could Prompt Saudi Arabia To Halt Oil Price Hikes
• Stocks rebound to start week, Dow rallies 500 points for best day since June: Live updates
• Tesla shares drop 5% on Panasonic battery warning, down 18% since Q3 earnings report
• Shipping industry could lose $10 billion a year battling climate change by 2050
• Israel-Hamas war live updates: Israel confirms a hostage was freed during a ground operation; Netanyahu dubs Hamas hostage video cruel ‘propaganda’
• Saudis On High Alert After Yemen’s Houthis Fire Another Missile At Israel, Fresh Clashes Erupt
• The Ratings Game: McDonald’s set up well for 2024 as digital sales, restaurant growth, ramp up: Wells Fargo

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.