Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 8, 2023

November 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 08 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 08 2023 – 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023

…Warm to record breaking temperatures from Southern High Plains to
Southeast today will give way to cooler conditions late this week…

…Post-frontal rain develops across Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley on Thursday…

…Storm system brings rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest beginning
Thursday night…

07Nov2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Up Fractionally – Consumer Credit Growth Continues to Slow

November 7, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 57 points or 0.17%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
  • Gold $1976 down $13.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $3.35,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.577% down 0.083 points,
  • USD index $105.55 up $0.33,
  • Bitcoin $35,658 up $598

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The goods and services deficit was $61.5 billion in September, up $2.9 billion from $58.7 billion in August, revised. September exports were up 4.6% year-over-year inflation-adjusted. September imports were down 0.9% year-over-year inflation-adjusted. The bottom line is that the deficit has been moderation for a year-and-a-half, imports have been declining, while exports have been growing. Economically, it appears the global economy appears to continue growing whilst declining imports generally signal a moderation of US economic growth.

According to the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit G-19 release:

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.4 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.

I extremely dislike the way the Fed headlines consumer credit – as the month-over-month change is too volatile and is misleading. Using their own data, consumer credit expanded 3.5% year-over-year (1.6% year-over-year inflation-adjusted – red line on the graph below). Non-revolving credit expanded at 1.5% year-over-year and revolving credit (mostly credit cards) is up 10.3% year-over-year. No question consumer credit growth is slowing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • WTO Ruling Reignites U.S.-China Trade Spat
  • Fed Raises Interest Rates By Half Percentage Point
  • Fed interest rate hike sends business loans to steepest cost since 2007, breaking 10% sticker shock level
  • Another Big Reversal FOMC Day: Markets Call Hawkish Fed’s Bluff
  • Powell Opens The Door To Higher Inflation Target “As Part Of A Longer-Term Project”
  • Deportations Plunge Under Biden In US Interior: Data
  • Fed hikes rates again and warns of more rises

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 7, 2023

November 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Wed Nov 08 2023 – 00Z Fri Nov 10 2023

…Cooler temperatures and beneficial precipitation expected through
midweek across the northern tier states…

…Very warm weather including some record high temperatures can be
expected along with dry conditions for much of the Central and Eastern
U.S. through the middle of the week…

…Some rain to begin impacting parts of the South by Thursday…

06 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Traded Its Way Across The Unchanged Line Before Closing Fractionally Higher In The Green

November 6, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 35 points or 0.10%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.30%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.18%,
  • Gold $1,986 down $13.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.38,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.649% up 0.091 points,
  • USD Index $105.25 down $0.023,
  • Bitcoin $35,027 down 0.03%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Iraq’s New Oil Law Highlights The West’s Fading Middle East Influence
  • American Refiners To Lower Utilization Rates As Gasoline Demand Cools
  • Venezuela In Talks With Oilfield Services Firms To Revive Oil Production
  • Microsoft-backed OpenAI announces GPT-4 Turbo, its most powerful AI yet
  • Trump rails against judge, AG’s office during testimony in $250 million fraud trial
  • Nasdaq closes higher Monday to notch longest winning streak since January: Live updates
  • Goldman says this biotech could become a global cell therapy leader, has nearly 40% upside
  • Bosch, SAP and others back Europe’s answer to OpenAI with $500 million of fresh funds
  • Housing affordability hits a 39-year low. ‘It’s fair to expect prices to weaken,’ expert says.
  • Economic Report: Fed loan-officer survey finds banks continue to tighten loan standards

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 6, 2023

November 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 06 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 06 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 08 2023

…More unsettled weather expected to bring beneficial precipitation
across the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies over the next couple
of days…

…Mixed light rain and snow will brush the northern borders of the
Northern Plains to the interior Northeast…

…Fair and mild weather expected to continue from the southwestern U.S.
to much of the eastern U.S; cool Pacific air arrives over the West
today….

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 5, 2023

November 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 05 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 05 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 07 2023

…Modest atmospheric river activity to bring multiple rounds of
beneficial precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and the Northern
Rockies over the next couple of days…

…Mixed light rain and snow may brush the northern borders of the
Northern Plains to the interior Northeast through Monday…

…Fair and mild weather expected to continue from the southwestern U.S.
to much of the eastern U.S; cool Pacific air arrives over the West this
week….

Potential Winter El Niño Impacts Across the North Central U.S. (Midwest, Missouri Basin, Great Lakes) November 4, 2023

November 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

I wish I had this for all regions but only three regions prepared this report so I am working with what I have. There is a separate but similar report for three areas: The Great Lakes, the Missouri Basin, and the Midwest.

I could have organized the graphics differently to highlight the differences among the three regions but I present the information as received and I think that works also.

The information presented will help a reader understand what is presented in the NOAA CPC Seasonal Outlooks and may provide some additional information for where they live in these regions.

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 4, 2023

November 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 04 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 04 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 06 2023

…Modest atmospheric river activity to bring multiple rounds of
beneficial precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and the Northern
Rockies this weekend into early next week…

…Most of the country experiences modest warmth this weekend before cool
Pacific air enters through the West…

03 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Moderately Higher, Dow Rises 300 Points After Quirky Jobs Report, Nasdaq Closes Sharply Up

November 3, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 222 points or 0.66%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.38%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.94%,
  • Gold $1,999 up $5.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $1.49,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.570% down 0.099 points,
  • USD Index $105.11 down $1.020,
  • Bitcoin $34,492 down 1.20%,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -7 to 618 Canada unchanged at 196

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment in the establishment survey increased by 150,000 in October 2023, and the unemployment rate (determined by the household survey) changed little to 3.9%. An employment gain of 150,000 is generally considered the minimum employment growth needed to support population growth. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined by 33,200 in manufacturing due to strike activity which is over now – so the real employment growth of the establishment survey should be +183,200. BUT the household survey says employment declined by 348,000 in October. This is a significant disconnect between the household and establishment surveys – and quite honestly, both numbers should be considered suspect. As far as the unemployment rate is concerned – the household survey says an additional 146,000 people were considered unemployed – and this is completely disconnected from the weekly BLS initial unemployment report which shows only 100,000 unemployment growth in October. Stepping back by analyzing year-over-year changes, regardless of data-gathering issues this month, employment growth continues to trend lower. The bigger surprise is that employment growth was 1.9% year-over-year (red line on the graph below) whilst weekly hours worked only gained 0.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). The weak growth of hours worked suggests a very soft labor market.

In October 2023, the ISM Services PMI registered 51.8%, 1.8 percentage points lower than the September reading of 53.6 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.1%, a 4.7-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 58.8% in September. The bottom line here is that any number under 55% COULD be indicative of an impending recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline Faces New Delays
  • U.S. Rig Count Takes A Dive
  • Copper’s Shifting Significance: From Economic Health To Green Energy
  • Solar Stocks Shaken By High Interest Rates And Supply Chain Issues
  • Dow pops more than 200 points on Friday to cap the best week for stocks so far this year: Live updates
  • UAW has Tesla, Toyota in its sights after contract wins at Detroit automakers
  • Wall Street will try to maintain momentum next week after a strong start to November
  • The Party’s Over: Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 2.3% To 1.2%
  • Maersk cuts 10,000 jobs as shipping demand falls
  • Earnings Results: DoorDash shares rally after earnings beat, helped by expansion beyond restaurants

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.