Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 46 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.12%,
• Gold $1,985 up $20.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $3.79,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.449% down 0.088 points,
• USD Index $104.42 up $0.020,
• Bitcoin $36,903 down $1,660 ( 4.42% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production declined 0.7% year-over-year in October 2023 (blue line in the graph below).  The manufacturing component fell 1.7% year-over-year (red line in the graph below), the utilities component was up 2.9% year-over-year (green line in the graph below), and the mining component was up 2.2% year-over-year (orange line in the graph below). Much of the decline this month in manufacturing was due to a 10 percent drop in the output of motor vehicles and parts that were affected by strikes at several major manufacturers of motor vehicles.  Capacity utilization moved down 0.6 percentage points to 78.9 percent in October, a rate that is 0.8 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall in November 2023. The survey’s indicator for general activity rose but remained negative. The indicator for shipments turned negative, while the indicator for new orders was positive but low. I will never be a fan of surveys, and this one directly contradicts the New York Fed’s Empire manufacturing survey released yesterday. I see very few signs of the manufacturing sector climbing out of its current recession.

U.S. import prices declined 2.0% year-over-year in October 2023 – down from -1.5% year-over-year the previous month. Export prices also declined -4.9% year-over-year – down from -4.3% year-over-year the previous month. Disinflation continues in export/import data – and is normally a signal of weak economies.

Boards are making leadership changes to better manage the issues of remote workers, to weather economic headwinds, and incorporate new technology. Meanwhile, CEOs who have taken on unprecedented challenges the last few years are taking the opportunity to leave.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EU Clamps Down on Companies Aiding Russian War Efforts
• Innovative Glass Coating Harnesses Cosmic Cold for Climate Control
• Thanksgiving Travel Surges To Pre-Covid Peaks, Marking A Return To Normalcy
• Oil Sheds Over 3% As Markets Remain Unconvinced On China
• America’s Best-Selling Sedan Will Be Hybrid-Only by 2025
• Deflation could be coming this holiday season, Walmart CEO says
• Judge lifts Trump gag order in $250 million New York business fraud case
• Boeing bonanza leaves rival Airbus in the dust at 2023 Dubai Air Show with three times more aircraft orders
• Over 100 Faculty Rip Harvard President’s Condemnation Of Slogan “From The River To The Sea”
• Elon Musk pours cold water on Starlink IPO in 2024
• Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield sinks to 4.4% on softer economic data, Walmart CEO talks of ‘deflation’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 164 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.16%,
• Gold $1,963 down $3.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.539% up 0.098 points,
• USD Index $10.43 up $0.380,
• Bitcoin $37,566 up $2,266,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3% year-over-year in October 2013 – down from 2.1% in September (blue line in the graph below). Services (green line on the graph below) that comprise 67% of final demand declined to 2.6% growth year-over-year but goods (green line on the graph below) have returned to deflation.

Retail sales remain sluggish with U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2023 up 2.5% above October 2022 – 1.2% inflation-adjusted (down from 1.8% year-over-year last month). This is a significant sign of economic slowing with significant declines in home furnishing, building materials, gas stations, sporting goods, and department stores. Interestingly, food store expenditures increased only 0.9% when yesterday’s consumer price index shows inflation was 3.3% – this means people are buying less food and/or buying hamburger instead of steak (this is a sign of household economic stress).

The November 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey‘s index grew modestly with the headline general business conditions index climbing fourteen points to 9.1. New orders remain in negative territory. I would not bet the farm on the relative strength or weakness of the regional Fed surveys.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Green Ammonia Breakthrough to Transform Fuel and Fertilizer Industries
• As Oil Prices Fall, Russia To Slash Crude Export Duties
• Top German Court Voids $65 Billion of Government Climate Funding
• Kuwait Working to Restart Mega Refinery After Sudden Halt
• Target CEO claims customers are saying ‘a big thank you’ for locking up merchandise
• The market thinks the Fed is going to start cutting rates aggressively. Investors could be in for a letdown
• Dow adds more than 150 points to clinch fourth winning day, fueled by cooling inflation data: Live updates
• Microsoft is fine avoiding China as U.S. considers national security implications, CEO Satya Nadella says
• Trump’s Truth Social Announces Merger ‘Milestone’ As Filings Show $73 Million Loss
• Intel board member buys $2.5 million in stock — and has a ‘solid’ track record
• Investors are thrilled inflation is down. Consumers aren’t so happy. Here’s why.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 490 points or 1.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.37%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.91%,
• Gold $1966 up $17,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.455% down 0.178 points,
• USD index $104.08 up $0.08,
• Bitcoin $31,177 down $1.55

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined from 3.7% year-over-year to 3.2% year-over-year. This decline was a surprise to me – and was driven by a significant decline in gasoline prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is down 4.1% on 30 October 2023 year-over-year. I believed oil prices would rise for the rest of the year. The decline in inflation year-over-year is positive news for the markets as THEY believe it signals the Federal Reserve that inflation is coming under control – and no further federal funds rate increases are needed.

The NFIB Optimism Index decreased 0.1 points in October 2023 to 90.7, marking the 22^nd month below the 50-year average. The last time the Optimism Index was at or above the average was December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The October data shows that small businesses are still recovering, and owners are not optimistic about better business conditions. Small business owners are not growing their inventories as labor and energy costs are not falling, making it a gloomy outlook for the remainder of the year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Israel’s Natural Gas Flow To Egypt To Return To Normal Next Week
• Aluminum Prices Struggle As Demand Dwindles
• Russia’s Oil Export Revenue Slips In October
• The U.S. Just Recorded Its Highest Oil Production Month In History
• Russia Claims It Will Continue To Adapt To Oil Sanctions
• S&P 500 notches best day since April, Dow leaps nearly 500 points on soft inflation report: Live updates
• Cooler monthly inflation report pushes mortgage rates even lower
• Stocks Soar, Yields And Dollar Crash As Fed’s Tightening Cycle Dies, Countdown To Cuts Begins
• Google sends a third of Safari ad revenue to Apple

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 55 points or 0.16%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.22%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.08%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,951 up $12.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $1.34,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.632% up 0.004 points,
• USD Index $105.66 down $0.210,
• Bitcoin $36,828 down $546,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Fourth Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters now shows the outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2023 and 1.7 percent in 2024. These annual projections are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage point higher than the estimates in the previous survey.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Surprising Scarcity Of Suitable Sand
• NASA’s Breakthrough In Battery Tech Paves Way For Electric Aviation
• Chinese Bitcoin Mining Operations Raise U.S. National Security Alarm
• Goldman Sachs Sees 31% Returns For Energy Over 12 Months
• Baker Hughes: Geopolitical Risks Are At The Highest Since 1973 Oil Embargo
• Moody’s warning on the massive U.S. debt burden has turned into a nonevent
• Spot bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC is approaching, experts say. What that means for investors
• Market Snapshot: Dow Jones edges higher as inflation data looms

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.