What’s wrong with the United Kingdom’s economy?
A wave of pessimism has descended on the UK economy. What are we to make of it?
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 28, 2024
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 28 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 28 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 30 2024…Heavy snow over parts of the Northeast and snow over parts of the
Appalachians on Sunday……Scattered rain/freezing rain over parts of eastern New York State into
Southern New England……Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over parts of
Northern/Central High Plains…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
Drought Update – January 27, 2024
Every week on Thursday, the Drought Monitor LINK is updated for every state in the U.S. plus most territories.
And there is another source of information on drought from certain groupings of states that operate what is called a Drought Early Warming System (DEWS). They sometimes have webinars and may issue reports without having a webinar. Not all parts of the U.S. are covered. These groups of states seem to issue reports every two months. I am only showing the recent reports since a month-old report at this time of the year can be misleading.
To get to that part of this article where I provide these reports you may have to click on “Read More”. I provide maps for all of the existing DEWS. And other groups of states report on precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir status which overlaps a lot with what is covered by the DEWS. So I plan to write about the activity of both kinds of groups. Today I am focusing on the DEWS.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 27, 2024
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 27 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 27 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 29 2024…Heavy snow and rain/freezing rain over parts of Northern New England
and snow over parts of the Appalachians on Sunday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast on Saturday…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
26Jan2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Little Changed To End the Week
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 60 points or 0.16%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.36%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.07%,
- Gold $2018 up $1.00,
- WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.63,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.145% up 0.013 points,
- USD index $101.46 down $0.13,
- Bitcoin $41,900 up $1,954,
- Baker Hughes rig count up 1 to 621
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Real personal income (PCE) grew 4.2% year-over-year in December 2023 – down from 4.4% the previous month. Real personal consumption expenditures improved to 3.2% year-over-year from 2.99% last month. The PCE price index was little changed at 2.6% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index was 2.9% year-over-year. These are relatively good numbers.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 77.3 in December. Year over year, pending transactions were up 1.3%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:
The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices. Job additions and income growth will further help with housing affordability, but increased supply will be essential to satisfying all potential demand.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- US Oil, Gas Drillers Add 1 More Rig As Production Plummets
- China’s Record Solar Additions in 2023 Top Entire U.S. Solar Capacity
- Oil Tanker and Container Shipping Rates Hit Record Highs
- Russia Sees Alternative Gas Routes if Ukraine Transit Deal Isn’t Extended
- Biden Administration Halts Approvals of New LNG Export Projects
- Rising Electricity Demand Will Keep Fossil Fuels Around
- Tech layoffs balloon in January as Wall Street rally lifts Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft to records
- Crypto prices effort a comeback as bitcoin soars 5% to close out the week: CNBC Crypto World
- Microsoft Teams suffers outage affecting thousands, sparking user frustration
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
26 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Bull Run Continued This Morning As The S&P 500 and The Dow Marked New Historic Highs But Fell To Close Mixed
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 60 points or 0.16%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.36%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.07%,
- Gold $2,018 up $0.60,
- WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.81,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.143% up 0.011 points,
- USD index $103.45 down $0.12,
- Bitcoin $41,933 up $2,241 (5.65%),
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 621 Canada +7 to 230
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
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Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Shell To Convert German Refinery To Base Oil Manufacturing
- US Oil, Gas Drillers Add 1 More Rig As Production Plummets
- China’s Record Solar Additions in 2023 Top Entire U.S. Solar Capacity
- Strong Economic Data Boosts Bullish Sentiment in Oil Markets
- Rising Electricity Demand Will Keep Fossil Fuels Around
- What to Expect From Big Oil This Earnings Season
- Tech layoffs balloon in January as Wall Street rally lifts Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft to records
- Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago
- Wall Street is barreling toward a big week ahead with megacap earnings, Fed meeting in focus
- Crypto prices effort a comeback as bitcoin soars 5% to close out the week: CNBC Crypto World
- Here are some important items for taxpayers to consider before filing their 2023 tax return
- Long-term Treasury yields end higher for 2nd straight week despite mild PCE inflation data
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 26, 2024
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 26 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 26 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 28 2024..Heavy rain/freezing rain over parts of Northern New England; light
Rain/Freezing Rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest……Light snow for the Cascades and higher elevation snow across the
Central/Southern Rockies and Southwest; Moderate snow over Northern New
England……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific
Northwest Coast on Friday and the Central Gulf Coast into the
Central/Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at precipitation and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal precipitation due to the trend in temperatures.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
25 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Higher, But Lower Than Yesterday’s Highs, Finally Closing With A Modest Gain
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 243 points or 0.64%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.18%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.53%,
- Gold $2,018 up $2.00,
- WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $2.18,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.126% down 0.052 points,
- USD index $103.54 up $0.30,
- Bitcoin $39,686 up $46 (0.12%),
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report on mortgage performance analysis through November 2023 shows 2.9% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic stated:
U.S. job growth continued at a steady pace in the final quarter of 2023, and the unemployment rate ended the year just slightly higher than its 50-year low. The robust labor market is contributing to small mortgage delinquency numbers, with the overall delinquency rate remaining low and the serious delinquency rate at a record low. Mortgage performance should remain strong in 2024, as the job market is expected to remain healthy.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.1% year-over-year for the advance estimate in fourth quarter of 2023. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.9% year-over-year. This GDP growth was stronger than expected with the consumer accounting for 58% of this GDP growth. For me, the surprise was the GDP implicit price indicator falling to 2.6% growth year-over-year which is just a touch over the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December 2023 was up 4.8% year-over-year – -0.8% inflation-adjusted. There was little change in dollar values from the previous month.
Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 4.4% pver December 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2023 was $413,200. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 453,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate. Even with the large backlog of homes for sale, new home sales is an economic bright spot.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.28 in December from –0.24 in November. The CFNAI is the most consistent of all coincident indicators. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 (red line on the graph below). However, this value is below zero which means the economy is expanding below the average rate of growth.
In the week ending January 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 202,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 203,250 to 203,750.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index declined moderately with the month-over-month composite index of -9 in January 2024, down from -1 in December and -2 in November. Manufacturing continues in a recession in the U.S.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- U.S. Drivers Waiting For Lower Gasoline Prices Instead Told To “Buckle Up”
- High Energy Prices Weigh On European Steelmakers
- The U.S. Finally Started to Crack Down on Crypto in 2023
- Red Sea Disruptions Force Saudi Aramco to Slash Prices
- India Sees Fuel Demand Rising by 2.7% in 2024-2025 Fiscal Year
- Tesla shares close down 12% for worst day since 2020 after automaker warns of slowdown
- S&P 500 closes higher for a sixth day, powered by strong GDP data: Live updates
- This is what was behind the bitcoin sell-off and why JPMorgan thinks it could be ending
- The U.S. economy grew at blistering 3.3% pace in Q4 while inflation pulled back
- The US Has The Biggest Govt In The History Of The World… By A Very Wide Margin
- 2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest in a week despite surprisingly strong GDP report
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 25, 2024
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 25 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 25 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 27 2024…Flash Flooding and Severe Weather concerns continue for portions of the
Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast……Freezing rain impacts possible over parts of southern Maine/central New
England……Unseasonably warm air surges into the eastern third of the country
leading to widespread record low temperatures Thursday night…[Editor’s Note: not clear. It should say the low of the day will be warm enough to break records]
Looking out a bit farther
Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. This evening we are looking at temperatures and the baseline here is such that it will tend to show warmer than baseline-normal temperatures due to the trend in temperatures.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
24 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, S&P 500 Setting A New High Again, Finally Closing Mixed
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 99 points or 0.26%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.36%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
- Gold $2,013 down $12.90,
- WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $0.97,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.180% up 0.038 points,
- USD index $103.31 down $0.31,
- Bitcoin $39,520 up $514 (1.32%),
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Survey of Business Uncertainty continues to show a deterioration in sales revenue growth.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- IEA To Expedite 2025 Oil Demand Forecast in OPEC Competition
- Toyota Chairman Questions EV Market Future
- Increased U.S. Natural Gas Production Driving Emissions Reduction
- Russia Builds Out Arctic Oil Route As Middle East Tensions Escalate
- Oil Ticks Higher on Significant Inventory Draw
- Russia Says New Discoveries Fully Replaced Its Oil and Gas Reserves in 2023
- Japan’s LNG Imports Drop to 14-Year Low
- Nasdaq, S&P 500 close higher for fifth straight day as Netflix shares surge: Live updates
- Amazon’s Ring will stop allowing police to request doorbell video footage from users
- Thursday’s GDP report expected to show the U.S. economy at a crossroads
- Bitcoin wrestles with $40,000 as it tries to recover recent losses: CNBC Crypto World
- Treasury yields end at highest levels in at least 6 weeks after PMI data
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.