Financial Sector Debt and Inflation. Part 4
This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between Financial Sector Debt (FSD) and Consumer Inflation (CPI). The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here. The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously. The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay.
Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 31, 2024
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 31 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 31 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 02 2024…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada,
Colorado, Utah, and Arizona……There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of over parts of
the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Sunday; there is an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle
Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys on Monday…A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains will be
quasi-stationary through Monday morning. Moisture from the Western Gulf of
Mexico will pool along the boundary, creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Farther east along the boundary, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms increases over parts of the
Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys from
Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased threat of EF2
to EF5 tornados over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the
Western Ohio Valley. In addition, there is an increased threat of hail two
inches or greater in size over parts of the Southern Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley.Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys from Monday to Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
Likewise, showers and thunderstorms will extend into the Central
Appalachian and Mid-Atlantic on Monday.Meanwhile, the threat of excessive rainfall is a Marginal Risk over parts
of Southern California and Arizona on Sunday. The associated heavy rain
will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff and burn scars. In addition, the moisture streamed
inland due to the upper-level low off the Southern California Coast will
aid in creating heavy snow over the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada,
Colorado, Utah, and Arizona through Monday. Moderate to heavy snow will
linger over parts of Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico from Monday
evening into Tuesday. Rain will develop over lower elevations of the
Southwest and Southern Rockies, ending on Tuesday. Additionally, light to
moderate snow will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on
Sunday. The snow will linger over the area on Monday and end overnight on
Monday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again modestly improved and is slightly in positive territory. This does not mean the economy is going gangbusters but is continuing to plod along. There remain three major indicators that suggest a recession is coming. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Summary of the March 26, 2024 Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar – Posted on March 30, 2024
I am providing the full summary of the March 26, 2024 Southeast Region Monthly Webinar. To have it look identical to the summary I received I turn the summary into images so the links are not live. If you wish to click on any of the images you can access the Internet version of the summary HERE. In my article I provide the link to the video recording of the webinar for those who wish to listen to the audio and the questions and answers.
Some will need to click on Read More to access the body of this article.
Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 30, 2024
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 30 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 30 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 01 2024…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the higher
elevations of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona……Snow over parts of the Upper Great Lakes…
…There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Saturday…An upper-level low will develop off the Central California Coast on
Saturday, moving inland to the Southwest by Monday. The circulation around
the low will stream moisture inland over parts of Southern California and
other parts of the West. Rain and higher-elevation snow will spread over
parts of California. The flow of moisture will create heavy rain over
parts of Southern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.In addition, the moisture will aid in creating heavy snow over the Sierra
Nevada Mountains and the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado,
Utah, and Arizona through Monday.On Sunday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly to a
Moderate Risk over parts of Southern California and Arizona through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff and burn scars.
Further, rain will continue over parts of Southeastern California and
Arizona through Monday.Furthermore, low pressure over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys will move eastward off the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday
morning. The energy will produce snow over the Upper Great Lakes through
Sunday morning. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday. The SPC has issued
a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, strong to
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Elsewhere, low pressure over Eastern Canada will slowly move northeastward
farther into Canada by Saturday evening. Light snow will linger over parts
of Northern Maine through Saturday afternoon.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
29 Mar 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: NYSE Closed For Good Friday
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- Gold $2,255 up $42.10,
- WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.76,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.206% up 0.010 points,
- USD index $104.52 down $0.030,
- Bitcoin $69,676 up $1,135 (1.61%)
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged to 248 in February, up 28% from the 194 CEO exits recorded in January. It is a 49% increase from the 167 CEO exits that occurred in the same month one year prior. February’s total is the highest monthly total on record. The previous record was set in January 2020, when 219 CEOs left their posts. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:
This suggests CEOs who took the position temporarily in 2019 extended their tenures due to the pandemic, and are deciding to leave their posts now.
Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased 1.7% year-over-year in February 2024- down from 2.1% in January. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.4% year-over-year – up from 2.o% in January. The PCE price index was little changed at 2.5% year-over-year – excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also was little changed at 2.8%. The bottom line is that inflation is no longer subsiding.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Chinese Solar Companies Skimp on Quality As Price War Escalates
- South Sudan’s Oil Revenues Plunge as Ruptured Pipeline Stalls Exports
- U.S. Drilling Activity Slips Again
- Fisker Slashes Prices of Its Ocean SUV by 39%
- Indonesia to Quadruple Battery-Grade Nickel Output by 2030
- Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually in February, as expected
- Tesla’s awful quarter has Wall Street on edge ahead of delivery numbers
- Russia launches barrage of 99 drones and missiles on Ukraine’s energy system, officials say
- Investors are focused ‘overwhelmingly’ on bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies, BlackRock says
- The Meltdown Of Commercial Real Estate
- Tupperware sounds another warning for investors with more filing delays
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 29, 2024
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Mar 29 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 29 2024 – 12Z Sun Mar 31 2024…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the higher
elevations of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and Northern Maine……Light to moderate snow over parts of the Upper Midwest…
…There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Friday and Saturday and Northern Maine on Friday…An upper-level low will develop off the Northwest Coast and move southward
to off Southern California by Sunday. The circulation around the low will
stream moisture inland over parts of Southern California and other parts
of the West. Coastal rain will develop over parts of the Pacific
Northwest, and rain/higher-elevation snow will spread over parts of
California. By Friday afternoon, the flow of moisture will create heavy
rain over parts of Southern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable.In addition, the moisture will aid in creating heavy snow over the Sierra
Nevada Mountains and the higher elevations of Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah
through Sunday. Moreover, the heavy rain will continue over Southern
California on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Saturday
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern Tier States will move
eastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Sunday. The energy
will produce light to moderate snow over the Northern Tier States into the
Great Lakes through Sunday. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley by Friday evening into Sunday. Along the rain/snow line, a few
pockets of light rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes late Friday night into Saturday.Meanwhile, low pressure off the Northeast Coast will move northward into
Eastern Canada by Saturday evening. Moisture will stream along the
Northeast Coast, creating heavy rain along the Maine Coast. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Maine Coast through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Further, the energy associated with the low will help produce heavy snow
over parts of Northern Maine through Saturday morning. Snow will linger
over Northern Maine through Sunday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
28 Mar 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Mixed, Traded Sideways Across The Unchanged Line, S&P 500 Marks New Historic High, Major Indexes Closed Mixed
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 47 points or 0.12%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.11%, ( New high 5,265)
- Gold $2,241 up $28.30,
- WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.62,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.206% up 0.010 points,
- USD index $104.54 up $0.190,
- Bitcoin $70,903 up $2,265 (3.27%), – Historic high 73,798.25
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 621 Canada -18 to 151
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The third estimate of 4Q2023 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.1% year-over-year – up from the third quarter real GDP of 2.9% year-over-year. The GDP implicit price deflator (inflation seen withing GDP) improved from 3.2% to 2.6% year-over-year.
In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 211,250 to 211,750.
The Chicago Business Barometer™ declined 2.6 points to 41.4 in March. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decrease, pushing the index further into contractionary territory, and marking the lowest print since May 2023. We also note that this print is 4 points below the 2023 average. The Chicago PMI is used by pundits as an early indicator of the national PMI. There is little question that manufacturing is in a recession in the U.S.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:
While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year. Ongoing job gains are clearly increasing demand along with more inventory.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Gold Recycling Goes Green with Biodiesel Innovation
- Citigroup Says 42% of Clients Have No Energy Transition Plan
- Russian Warships Enter The Red Sea amid Houthi Attacks
- Over 20% of the World’s Oil Refining Capacity Is at Risk of Closure
- FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years for crypto fraud, to pay $11 billion in forfeiture
- S&P 500 closes at a fresh record, posts strongest first quarter performance since 2019: Live updates
- The wealth of the 1% just hit a record $44 trillion
- Appeals Court Extends Block On Texas Arrests Of Illegal Immigrants
- The S&P 500 and Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ are both up in 2024. Should investors be worried?
- Oil ends higher, with U.S. prices up 16% for the quarter
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 28, 2024
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 28 2024 – 12Z Sat Mar 30 2024…Rainy, stormy weather continues along the East Coast through today,
lingering in New England Friday……Unsettled weather for the West, with a late season Atmospheric River
impacting California Friday……Warming trend begins over Central U.S. today…
Two slow moving frontal boundaries will continue to push towards the East
Coast today, with the leading front pushing into the Atlantic by early
afternoon and the second front slowing approaching the coast while
weakening through this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through today along the East Coast but taper off from south to
north as the leading front exits. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
over portions of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and coastal New England, which
may cause isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. The highest
risk for flash flooding will be over eastern North Carolina and far
southeastern Virginia as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal
boundary today, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) for this area. Precipitation chances will likely linger through
Friday for portions of New England as low pressure strengthens just east
of the region. Colder air moving in from the north will allow rain to
switch to wintry mixed precipitation and snow overnight into Friday for
inland areas. Winds will also become gusty in the Northeast on Friday and
Saturday as the low strengthens and the pressure gradient tightens.Meanwhile, a frontal system will push southeast across much of the West
with unsettled weather today into Friday. Mountain snow and low elevation
rain will impact the region, and locally heavy snow will be possible for
regional mountain ranges from the Pacific Northwest southward into
northern/central California, as well as for the eastern Great Basin into
the northern/central Rockies. Low pressure associated with the
southeastward moving frontal system will push into the northern and
central Plains on Friday and reach the Great Lakes region by Saturday
morning. This will bring chances for wintry precipitation to the Upper
Midwest and northern Great Lakes and chances for showers and thunderstorms
to portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.On Friday afternoon, a Pacific low pressure system will approach the
California coast. This system will aim a plume of moisture (an atmospheric
river) at central and southern California Friday night into Saturday,
which will result in heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding. There
is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for portions of coastal
southern California on Friday and Saturday where upslope flow along
terrain will likely enhance rainfall totals and could lead to scattered
instances flooding.Temperature-wise, lows this morning will be chilly, dropping into the low
to mid-30s across portions of the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley
following a cold front passage, and Frost/Freeze-related advisories and
warnings are in place for newly greening sensitive vegetation. Increasing
upper-level ridging over will bring warmer, above average temperatures to
portions of the Central U.S. today, to the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and
Midwest on Friday, and to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.
Below average high temperatures are forecast for much of the West through
the weekend due to expected cloud cover and precipitation and for the
northern high Plains Friday through the weekend as colder air moves in
behind a cold front.