NOAA Updates its Mid-month Outlook for June, 2024 -Posted on June 1, 2024

June 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is June of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for June and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for June for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for June. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (JJA) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the June Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation in the Western States. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting ENSO Blog Post.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for June is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for June and the Mid-Month Outlook for June. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for June and the previously issued three-month outlook for JJA 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for June 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for June.

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on May 16, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for June.  One expects some changes  15 days later. However, the changes to the June Outlook are significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (May 16, 2024) three-month JJA temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for June and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which include the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that July and August will be very different than June, especially for temperature. You can basically subtract June, the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined July-August Outlook.

However given the major change in the new June outlook from what was issued on May 16,  2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on May 16, 2024. Something to think about.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 1, 2024

June 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 01 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 03 2024

…Excessive Rainfall threatens parts of the Central/Southern Plains,
Southeast and Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today…

…Severe Weather refocuses over the Great Plains this weekend…

…Southern Texas remains warmer than average through early next week…

A sequence of shortwave energies will support impactful weather across the
Central U.S. this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will organize ahead
of a low pressure system over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
spread into the Southeast this morning and afternoon. Some storms may be
strong enough to produce heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of
Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama today. Meanwhile, some dry-line storms
could turn severe over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains this
afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms for the aforementioned areas with supercells possibly
organizing into clusters and spreading into the Plains tonight. Severe
wind, hail and brief tornadoes are possible.

Another low pressure system emerging from the Rockies will bring a renewed
threat of severe weather to the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest
on Sunday. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect
from southeastern North Dakota to western Minnesota and down into central
Nebraska, where a line of severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts
and hail could be the main severe threats. There’s also a Slight Risk (at
least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of
southern Minnesota, southeastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska and Iowa
on Sunday.

Deep upper-level troughing will bring rain and cooler temperatures to the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above average across
southern Texas, while warmer conditions expand across the Great Plains
through early next week. Approaching shortwave energy and an upper low
locked in just off the Northeast Coast will support warmer than average
temperatures over the Northeast for the next several days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

31 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Last Half Hour Pushes Equities Sky Rocketing Into The Green With The Nasdaq Down And Flat

May 31, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 575 points or 1.51%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.01%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.80,
  • Gold $2,348 down $18.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.80,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.506 down 0.046 points,
  • USD index $104.63 down $0.09,
  • Bitcoin $67,651 down a change of -0.99% of over past 24 hours,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real (inflation adjusted) Disposable Personal Income (DPI) declined significantly from 1.3% year-over-year in March to 1.0% year-over-year in April 2024. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) [view this as what builds GDP] declined from 2.8% year-over-year in March to 2.6% year-over-year in April 2024. The PCE price index [the preferred inflation metric of the Federal Reserve] as little changed at 2.7% year-over-year – this is not good news for those who believed inflation was going away. Overall, the economy seems to be going through a soft patch.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 35.4 in May 2024 from 37.9 in April. This is the sixth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since May 2020. The Chicago PMI is viewed as a window to the national PMI which will be released next week.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 31, 2024

May 31, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 31 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 31 2024 – 12Z Sun Jun 02 2024

…Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall potential across mid-section of
the country this weekend…

…Heat Risk continues over far southern Texas…

Southern stream shortwave energy will be the catalyst for severe
thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential across parts of the Central
U.S. this weekend. Today a complex of thunderstorms will propagate from
the Central/Southern High Plains across northern and eastern Texas,
followed by another round of storms which will develop and move into parts
of Arkansas and southern Missouri this evening. The Storm Prediction
Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for these
events with wind damage and an isolated tornado being the main hazard
threats. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible over
the Central High Plains. There’s also a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over portions of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Oklahoma/Texas. There’s still
plenty of uncertainty as to where exactly storms will initiate and be most
impactful.

The focus for showers and thunderstorms shifts into the Lower Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Another complex of storms may propagate into
the central Gulf Coast beginning in the morning. Some of these storms may
be efficient enough rain producers to warrant another Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall over much of Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm
Prediction Center has another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms along
the Central to Southern High Plains where supercells capable of producing
severe wind, hail and a couple of brief tornadoes could impact the region
Saturday afternoon.

Elsewhere, heat risk continues to be a concern over south Texas through
the weekend. Convection over the Central U.S. will lead to below average
high temperatures today. Troughing in the West will support above average
temperatures across much of the region this weekend. A deep upper-level
low will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, bringing with it the
potential for heavy rainfall

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

30 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Gapped Sharply Lower At The Opening Bell, Nasdaq And The S&P 500 Waterfalled From The Opening Trade, While The Dow Traded Sideways, All Closing Near Session Lows

May 30, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 330 points or 0.86%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.60%,
  • Gold $2,361 down $2.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $1.34,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.548 down 0.076 points,
  • USD index $104.77 down $0.330,
  • Bitcoin $68,564 up, a change of 1.02% over past 24 hours

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance Insights for March 2024 measures early-stage delinquency rates. In March 2024, 2.8% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. This represents a 0.2 percentage point change in the overall delinquency rate compared with March 2023. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic stated:

The U.S. delinquency rate increased from a year earlier in March, driven by an uptick in early-stage delinquencies. Further, the early-stage delinquency rate remained flat from February to March this year, while it typically falls between those months, as many borrowers receive income tax refunds in March. While monthly changes in the early-stage delinquency rate can be volatile, this break from the seasonal trend comes at a time when household budgets are strained by still-high inflation.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) second estimate increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024 – in the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6%. I prefer to view the year-over-year change which is now up 2.9% year-over-year. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4%. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0% in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The bottom line for the second estimate is the economy was weaker but inflation was improved.

In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 219,750 to 220,000. There is no indication of a slowing economy.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 72.3 in April 2024. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market. But the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut later this year should lead to better conditions, with improved affordability and more supply.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 30, 2024

May 30, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 30 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 30 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024

…More active weather across the mid sections of the nation, with
additional rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rains, flash flooding and severe
weather…

…Heat to continue across the Southwest to South Texas and much of
Florida, while building across the inland valleys of California…

…Cooler than average temperatures for the Plains and large portions of
the eastern U.S. through early this weekend…

A tumultuous weather pattern sparking several rounds of robust
thunderstorms is set to continue throughout much of the central and
south-central United States. The atmospheric ingredients in play for the
next serving of severe weather include an upper trough with embedded
shortwaves crossing the Rockies today, multiple frontal boundaries draped
across the Great Plains, and ample atmospheric moisture content lifting
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a reemerging
dryline over the southern High Plains will help spark strong storms this
afternoon that are forecast to progress eastward tonight over the southern
Plains. These thunderstorms may contain large hail and damaging wind
gusts, with the locations most likely impacted including the Texas
Panhandle and parts of west Texas. A broader threat for isolated severe
weather stretches throughout a majority of the central and southern
Plains. Intense rainfall rates are also possible and can lead to flash
flooding where storm motions are slow. Currently, the scattered flash
flood threat includes much of the central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex
region. The active weather and clusters of redeveloping thunderstorms are
then forecast to gradually slide eastward on Friday as an area of low
pressure pushes across the Red River Valley of the South. Additional
chances for damaging wind gusts and large hail exists across central and
eastern Texas, as well as into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash
flooding also remains a concern for the last day of May across the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Wet weather is anticipated
to expand to start the weekend, but with less focus for severe weather as
thunderstorm chances stretch from the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the Great
Plains.

Storminess over the central U.S. will keep high temperatures below average
to end the week, while a potent high pressure system over the Lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley also offers refreshing afternoon temperatures in the
70s for large sections of the Eastern United States. Summer heat will be
continue to be found across the Southwest and Southern Tier. Muggy highs
into the mid-90s are forecast across the central/southern Florida
Peninsula until a cold front enters on Saturday and offers some much
needed relief in the form of persistent northeasterly flow. Upper 90s and
low 100s are anticipated to stretch from the Southwest to far western and
southern Texas through the weekend. Heat will actually build further north
into the Great Basin and interior California valleys as well, but not
quite warm enough to approach daily records. If spending time outdoors in
these regions, be sure to follow proper heat safety.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

29 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Major Indexes Opened Sharply Lower, Continued To Trade Sideways For The Entire Session, The Dow Slides More Than 400 Points

May 29, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 411 points or 1.06%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.74,
  • Gold $2,337 down $19.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.79,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.614 up 0.072 points,
  • USD index $105.13 up $0.520,
  • Bitcoin price is $67,209.30, a change of -1.69% over the past 24 hours as of 4:02 p.m.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey shows manufacturing activity improved but remained sluggish in May 2024. The diffusion manufacturing index increased from −10 in April to -6 in May. Note that the one month manufacturing index improved from -7 to 0 – of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −10 to 13, new orders increased from −9 to −6, and employment fell from −2 to −6. Manufacturing in the U.S. remains in a recession.

The May 2024 Beige Book (which is an anecdotal post on current economic conditions in each Federal Reserve District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources) said only that the economy “continued to expand” – and did not give many reasons to be optimistic about the direction of the economy. The summary paragraph read as follows:

National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Most Districts reported slight or modest growth, while two noted no change in activity. Retail spending was flat to up slightly, reflecting lower discretionary spending and heightened price sensitivity among consumers. Auto sales were roughly flat, with a few Districts noting that manufacturers were offering incentives to spur sales. Travel and tourism strengthened across much of the country, boosted by increased leisure and business travel, but hospitality contacts were mixed in their outlooks for the summer season. Demand for nonfinancial services rose, and activity in transportation services was mixed, as port and rail activity increased whereas reports of trucking and freight demand varied. Nonprofits and community organizations cited continued solid demand for their services, and manufacturing activity was widely characterized as flat to up, though two Districts cited declines. Tight credit standards and high interest rates continued to constrain lending growth. Housing demand rose modestly, and single-family construction increased, though there were reports of rising rates impacting sales activity. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector softened amid supply concerns, tight credit conditions, and elevated borrowing costs. Energy activity was largely stable, whereas agricultural reports were mixed, as drought conditions eased in some Districts, but farm finances/incomes remained a concern. Overall outlooks grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

May 29, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally declined but remained slightly in positive territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters, other sectors are barely above recessionary levels, whilst others are in recession territory. A fourth potential major index is now likely indicating a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 29, 2024

May 29, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 29 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 29 2024 – 12Z Fri May 31 2024

…Active central U.S. weather pattern to continue, with heavy rains,
flash flooding, and severe weather possible…

…Anomalous heat continues across far southern Texas and Florida, while
hot temperatures begin to build in the Southwest and interior California
Valleys…

The active and stormy weather pattern impacting the central U.S. is set to
continue over the next few days while also expanding in coverage to
include much of the Great Plains, middle and lower Mississippi Valley. For
today, a cold front progressing across the Northern Rockies and central
Great Basin in response to a Northwest upper trough will help spark
numerous thunderstorms into the northern Plains and parts of the central
High Plains. A few scattered storms could contain intense rainfall rates,
hail, and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible along
a lingering stationary front extending along the Gulf Coast and southern
Plains, which have greater chances of producing instances of flash
flooding due to thunderstorms overlapping with saturated ground
conditions. As upper troughing enters the Great Plains on Thursday, even
more rounds of slow-moving tumultuous thunderstorm clusters are
anticipated. This leads to a broad region at risk for hail, damaging
winds, and flash flooding from Kansas and eastern Colorado to
north-central Texas. This activity is then forecast to gradually slide
eastward on Friday to impact the ArkLaTex region, as well as extending
into the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Plains once again. Flash
flooding will remain a concern due to the relatively slow-moving nature of
thunderstorms occurring within a moisture rich environment. Widespread
areal-averaged rainfall totals by the end of the week are forecast to add
up to over 2 inches throughout much of Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas,
southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, with localized amounts over 4
inches possible.

Simmering heat is expected to continue for much of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula as highs reach into the mid-90s, which may
tied/break daily record highs today. Highs also returning to the upper 90s
are forecast along the Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas after early
morning thunderstorms. However, a larger area of hot weather will begin to
build throughout the Southwest and interior California valleys by the end
of the week. Afternoon temperatures into the upper 90s and triple digits
can be expected.

Elsewhere, high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southeast
will keep most areas east of the Mississippi River dry with the exception
of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today. A compact storm
system will be swinging eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main weather hazards associated
with these storms are forecast to be associated with lighting and locally
heavy rain.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.