NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on December 19, 2024 – Emerging Weak, Short La Nina Conditions – Posted on December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina has been challenging to predict.  But there is more confidence in the situation for the moment. We are still in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario very soon, but the strength of the La Nina may be fairly weak. The transition from ENSO Neutral to La Nina is complicated as is the transition from La Nino back to ENSO Neutral. We may have both of these transitions in the three-month period January through March which is a rapid sequence of transitions. So even if we have La Nina conditions for two or three months this period of time will probably not be recorded as a La Nina event because of the short duration. Every ten years the definition of climate normals are changed (it may be every five years for oceans). Some ENSO events are canceled and others are promoted to El Nino or La Nina status when the definition of climate normals (also called climatology) is updated.  This applies to the ONI status only as they do not reexamine the connection with the atmosphere. The warming of the oceans may very well make our definition of the states of ENSO incorrect. NOAA is looking at that.

From the NOAA discussion:

“El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are present, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. During the last four weeks, mostly negative SST anomaly changes were evident across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. As such, a La Niña Watch is in effect, with La Niña conditions most likely to emerge in November 2024 – January 2025 (NDJ) (59% chance) and is expected to persist through February-April (FMA) 2025. In fact, the latest weekly Nino 3.4 SST departure was -0.6 degrees Celsius, which technically crosses the La Niña threshold. However, chances of a strong La Niña are exceedingly small, with a near zero percent chance of occurrence through the Winter. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to re-emerge by the March-May (MAM) 2025 season.”

I personally would not have total confidence in this outlook given the uncertainty about there actually being a La Nina and its strength and duration if it does happen.  The number of El Nino and La Nina events since 1950 is a fairly small number. When you further segment them by strength (LINK) you end up with a very small number of events in each category (El Nino v La Nina and three or four categories of strength within each (thus 7 subcategories). This makes both statistical methods and dynamical models have a large error range.  We are pretty confident now that we will have either a weak La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias meaning it will be in the Neutral Range but closer to a La Nina than the midpoint of ENSO Neutral. This suggests that there is value in this forecast. The maps show the level of confidence that NOAA (really the NOAA Climate Prediction Center – CPC) has for the outlook shown when they show a part of the U.S. or Alaska differing from normal.

Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for January.

It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then we look at a graphic that shows both the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar except for temperatures in the Northwest and Alaska.  This tells us that February and March will be substantially the same as January for most of CONUS. Part of the explanation for this is that NOAA expects La Nina to impact all three months.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through January/February/March of 2026 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for January and the three-month period January/February/March.  Small maps are provided beyond that through January/February/March of 2026 with a link to get larger versions of these maps. NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article.

In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Dec 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 20 2024 – 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024

…Snow will fall over parts of the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast…

…Record warmth possible across the West Friday and Saturday,,,

The general flow pattern favors an upper level trough across the eastern
Pacific ocean, ridging aloft in the West, and troughing aloft in the
eastern United States. The consequence of this pattern will be some
rainfall along the West Coast, warmth across the Intermountain West, and
cold across portions of the East. Starting out West, skirmishes of rain
along the West Coast are expected both Friday and Saturday as low pressure
systems move from the eastern Pacific first into Alaska then into western
Canada. By Saturday, the second low moving into western Canada will push
rainfall into the northern Intermountain West, and snowfall at higher
elevations by Saturday afternoon and evening. High temperatures across
northern portions of the West will rise into the 40s and 50s, high enough
to threaten record high temperatures Friday into Saturday. Across the
Southwest, high temperatures should rise into the 70s and 80s, also
threatening record high temperatures in and near southern Arizona.

Mid-continent, a seasonably strong and cold high pressure system migrates
from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing below average
temperatures near and to its east. For some areas of the East, it should
be the coldest temperatures thus far this winter. When combined with
cyclonic flow around a pair of lows moving through the Midwest and
offshore the East Coast, lake effect and lake enhanced snowfall is
expected near the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, portions of the Appalachians,
northern Mid-Atlantic States, and New England Friday and Saturday. Winter
weather advisories are in effect for portions of Michigan and the southern
Appalachians to advise further on the snow threat. Across lower
elevations of the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic coast, rain will be
possible on Friday before the lows move out to sea.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

19 DEC 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Finally Closed Fractionally Higher In The Green After A positive Session Today Following Yesterday’s Rout

December 19, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 15 points or 0.04%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 20 points or 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 5 points or 0.09%,
  • Gold $2,612 down $40.90 or 1.54%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.73 or 1.03%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.570 up 0.072 points or 1.601%,
  • USD index $108.37 up $0.34 or 0.32%,
  • Bitcoin $95,904 down $4,546 or 4.74%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Market Summary

U.S. stocks stabilized on Thursday following a significant sell-off triggered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook on interest rates yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke a ten-consecutive-day losing streak. The market decline yesterday stemmed from the Fed reducing their forecast for 2025 rate cuts from four to just two. Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut decision as a “closer call” than anticipated. Looking ahead, investors are now focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report on Friday, which will provide further insights into inflation trends. The market’s volatility reflects ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s monetary policy and the trajectory of inflation in 2025.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are crucial economic drivers for the United States, playing a vital role in international trade and the national economy. These twin ports form the largest trade complex in North America, handling approximately 40% of all U.S. imports – and their data is released significantly earlier than other import data providing an early metric for trade. Loaded 20″ equivalent containers into the ports in November 2024 are up 20% year-over-year whilst exports are up 10% year-over-year. We can estimate that the trade balance will worsen in November 2024.

December 2024 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows the current general activity remained negative declining from -5.5 to -16.4 and fell further and the indices for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index edged down but continued to suggest increases in employment overall. The prices paid index moved higher, while the prices received index declined; both indices continue to indicate overall increases in prices. Manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey for December 2024 shows manufacturing declined to -4 from a -2 in November (a negative number is a decline from the previous month. Manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

The third estimate of 3Q2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.7% year-over-year and the implicit price deflator (inflation) was 2.3% year-over-year. There was little change from the second estimate when looking at year-over-year change. In January 2025, we will get our first look at 4Q2024 GDP.

Annual U.S. rent growth registered a 1.7% increase in October 2024, down from the 2.3% year-over-year growth rate seen at the same time last year and marking the lowest rate since June 2020. Prior to 2020, single-family rent growth increased in the range of 2% to 4% for nearly a decade and averaged 3.5%. This decline is good for inflation growth but is not good for investment in rental real estate.

Total existing-home sales improved to 6.1% year-over-year. The median existing-home sales price rose 4.7% from November 2023 to $406,100, the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. I would expect a few more months of gain but the gain in median home prices will hinder overall sales growth.

In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,250. Unemployment levels are consistent with an expanding economy.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in November 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board view:

The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022. A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November. It’s worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings. Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Precious Metals Prices Mixed Amidst Market Volatility
  • North Dakota Crude Output Cut By 520,000 b/d After October Wildfires
  • Argentina’s YPF and Shell Strike $50 Billion Deal
  • Israel Strikes Yemen Energy Targets in Latest Middle East Flare-Up
  • China Connects One of World’s Biggest Solar Projects to the Grid
  • Dow ekes out narrow gain to snap 10-day losing streak, its longest in 50 years: Live updates
  • House Republicans say they have deal to avert government shutdown
  • Tom Lee says ‘back up the truck’ after Wednesday’s panic selling
  • Senate expected to hold final vote on bill to change Social Security rules. Here’s what leaders have said
  • November home sales surged more than expected, boosted by lower mortgage rates
  • Billionaire DOGE Insider Teases Musk’s ‘Really Bold’ Plans To Drain Swamp: ‘A Lot of Stuff Ready For Day One’
  • Oil prices settle at lowest in over a week after Fed rattles markets
  • Treasury yield curve steepens as 10-, 30-year yields end at almost 7-month highs

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 19, 2024

December 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Dec 19 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024 – 12Z Sat Dec 21 2024

…Clipper system to bring periods of heavy snow to the Upper Midwest
Thursday with some light to moderate accumulations for the
Appalachians/Interior Northeast Friday…

…Well above average temperatures and mild conditions continue across the
West…

…Frontal passages will bring colder temperatures to much of the eastern
U.S. through the end of this week and into the weekend…

A clipper system dropping east-southeasterly through the northern Plains
and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will bring periods of heavy snow
along a path from central Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and into
the UP/northern LP of Michigan today. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect
for snow totals generally between 3-6″, locally higher. Gusty winds may
lead to periods of blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions. Although
snow has come to an end to the west over the northern Plains, very gusty
winds will continue through this afternoon. The clipper system will
continue quickly southeastward across the Ohio Valley, Appalachians,
Northeast, and off the East Coast Friday, bringing wintry precipitation to
the interior and some rain showers to the coast. Some moderate snow
accumulations will be possible across the central Appalachians and
downwind of Lake Erie, with lighter amounts more broadly over the Interior
Northeast.

Elsewhere, a few lingering showers and storms may occur over South Florida
Thursday, with conditions drying out into Friday. An upper-level shortwave
dropping southeastward over the northern Plains may lead to some renewed
light snow chances Friday. An active storm track over the Pacific will
also bring some periods of lower elevation/coastal rain and perhaps some
mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest/northern California the next couple
of days, though totals should remain much lighter than earlier this week.

Temperatures across the West will remain well above average by 10-20
degrees for most locations to end the week as upper-level ridging remains
in place. Forecast highs generally range in the 40s and 50s across the
Interior West, Pacific Northwest, and northern California with 60s to low
80s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. A cooling trend is
expected for much of the eastern half of the country following a cold
frontal passage off the East Coast this morning and an additional cold
front dropping southward with the clipper system. Very cold temperatures
in the teens are forecast for the northern Plains/Upper Midwest today.
Highs will drop into the 20s and 30s in the Midwest, the 30s and 40s in
the Mid-South and central Plains, and the 50s and 60s in Texas by Friday.
Highs along the East Coast range from the 20s to 40s in New England, the
30s and 40s in the Mid-Atlantic, and the 50s and 60s in the Southeast.
Much colder temperatures are expected along the East Coast by this
weekend.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

18 DEC 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Records Its 10th. Down Session, Shedding Over One Thousand Points With The Small Caps Following Suit, All Closing Deep Into The Red

December 18, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 1,123 points or 2.58%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 716 points or 3.56%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 179 points or 2.95%,
  • Gold $2,608 down $54.70 or 2.09%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.09 or 0.13%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.506 up 0.121 points or 2.759%,
  • USD index $108.08 down $1.13 or 1.05%,
  • Bitcoin $100,753 up $5,400 or 5.36%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Market Summary

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but stocks plummeted as the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously anticipated. All three major indices reversed earlier gains and closed with significant losses. The Fed’s updated projections now indicate only two interest rate cuts for 2025, down from the four cuts projected in September. This change reflects higher inflation readings and expectations of elevated inflation in the future. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that caution would be exercised in considering further cuts as long as the economy and labor market remain solid. The decision wasn’t unanimous, with Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack objecting to the rate cut. In response to the Fed’s announcement: The 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 11 basis points, approaching 4.5%. Rate-sensitive sectors experienced significant sell-offs, with the Russell 2000 index falling about 4%. The Real Estate sector in the S&P 500 also declined by almost 4%.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent as expected. This marks the third consecutive rate cut in 2024, following reductions in September and November. The Fed’s statement notes that while job gains have moderated and the unemployment rate has increased slightly, it remains low overall. Inflation has eased over the past year but is still somewhat elevated, with recent months showing little progress towards the Fed’s 2% target. It’s worth noting that one member, Beth M. Hammack, voted against the rate cut, preferring to maintain the previous target range of 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. This dissent reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook and the careful balance the Fed must strike in its policy decisions. The following is the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents. In the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed will likely approach future interest rate cuts cautiously and gradually. He stated that the economy’s current strength allows policymakers to make decisions with caution, emphasizing that there is no need to rush into lowering rates. He suggested that inflation might hover slightly above the target in the near future, but expects it to decrease further, albeit potentially following an uneven course. The Fed Chair has also emphasized that the central bank can afford to be “a little more cautious” regarding the pace of easing, given the strong economic conditions.

Variable Median Central Tendency Range
2024 2025 Longer run 2024 2025 Longer run 2024 2025 Longer run
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Change in real GDP 2.5 2.1 1.8 2.4-2.5 1.8-2.2 1.7-2.0 2.3-2.7 1.6-2.5 1.7-2.5
September projection 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9-2.1 1.8-2.2 1.7-2.0 1.8-2.6 1.3-2.5 1.7-2.5
Unemployment rate 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2-4.5 3.9-4.3 4.2 4.2-4.5 3.5-4.5
September projection 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.3-4.4 4.2-4.5 3.9-4.3 4.2-4.5 4.2-4.7 3.5-4.5
PCE inflation 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.4-2.5 2.3-2.6 2.0 2.4-2.7 2.1-2.9 2.0
September projection 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2-2.4 2.1-2.2 2.0 2.1-2.7 2.1-2.4 2.0
Core PCE inflation4 2.8 2.5 2.8-2.9 2.5-2.7 2.8-2.9 2.1-3.2
September projection 2.6 2.2 2.6-2.7 2.1-2.3 2.4-2.9 2.1-2.5
Federal funds rate 4.4 3.9 3.0 4.4-4.6 3.6-4.1 2.8-3.6 4.4-4.6 3.1-4.4 2.4-3.9
September projection 4.4 3.4 2.9 4.4-4.6 3.1-3.6 2.5-3.5 4.1-4.9 2.9-4.1 2.4-3.8

Investor activity in the U.S. housing market is often associated with deep-pocketed institutional buyers. While institutional investors tend to dominate headlines, they account for only a small fraction of total investor activity. Most real estate investors are mom-and-pop landlords, who own three to 10 properties. The number of purchases that investors are making is declining.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November 2024 is 0.2% below November 2023. Privately-owned housing starts is 14.6% below November 2023.
Privately-owned housing completions is 9.2% above November 2023. It is interesting that the number of completed housing units remains historically high with 481,000 new homes for sale in the representing about 9.5 months of supply at the current sales rate. Bottom line there are too many new homes being completed.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Copper Prices End 2024 Higher Despite Bearish Outlook
  • EPA Approves California Ban Of Fossil-Fueled Cars Starting 2035
  • Barclays Downgrades Energy Services Sector Amid Bearish Outlook
  • EIA Confirms Smaller Than Expected Crude Inventory Draw
  • World’s Coal Demand at Record High in 2024, IEA Says
  • Revolutionary Guards Tighten Grip on Iran’s Oil Exports
  • Dow tanks by 1,100 points, posts first 10-day losing streak since 1974: Live updates
  • Fed cuts by a quarter point, indicates fewer reductions ahead
  • Why Americans are outraged over health insurance — and what could change
  • Bitcoin falls as Fed lowers rates by a quarter point in its final 2024 decision: CNBC Crypto World
  • U.S. Supreme Court agrees to hear challenge to TikTok ban
  • The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 basis points—here’s what will get cheaper
  • Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He Cut Rates Again As Inflation Data Surges
  • Long-dated Treasury yields end at nearly 7-month highs after Fed projects fewer rate cuts in 2025
  • A Honda-Nissan merger would be a sign of things to come in auto industry, analyst says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 18, 2024

December 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Dec 18 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024 – 12Z Fri Dec 20 2024

…Clipper system to bring periods of moderate to heavy snow and gusty
winds to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes the next couple
of days…

…Showers and storms continue into the day Wednesday for the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys with some locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding possible…

…Well above average temperatures continue for much of the lower 48…

Lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation snow will linger into
the early morning hours Wednesday over the Pacific Northwest and northern
Great Basin/Rockies as an upper-level wave departs the region. The wave
will then pass over the northern High Plains, leading to lee cyclogenesis
and the organization of a clipper system that will drop east-southeastward
over the Plains and Midwest the next couple of days. Strengthening moist
southerly flow over colder air to the north will bring an intensifying
band of snow to the northern Plains Wednesday evening and into the
overnight hours. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for northern and
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota where 3-6 inches of snow,
locally higher, can be expected. A wintry mix will be possible to the
south of the heaviest snow with some snow and light ice accretions
possible from eastern Montana southeastward through western North Dakota
and into eastern South Dakota. In addition, very strong, gusty winds are
expected across the northern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday into
Thursday. This will lead to blowing snow and low visibility where snow is
either falling or remains on the ground. The system will pass through the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Thursday, bringing some moderate to locally
heavy snowfall, particularly across portions of northern Wisconsin.

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning ahead of a cold front
stretching from the Ohio Valley southwest through the Tennessee/Lower
Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains. Some locally heavy
rainfall is expected across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where storm
motions more parallel to the slow moving front will lead to a few repeated
rounds of storms. Isolated flash flooding will be possible particularly
across the Tennessee Valley where local soil conditions are more
saturated. The boundary will become more progressive by Wednesday
afternoon and sweep eastward across the Southeast and to the East Coast
into Wednesday evening, with some more isolated storms possible. Moist
flow along a warm front lifting northward ahead of the system will also
bring moderate rainfall to the coastal Northeast as well as the potential
for some accumulating snow for higher elevations of the interior Northeast
Wednesday afternoon through the early morning hours Thursday.
Precipitation should come to an end for all but Florida by Thursday
afternoon as the front pushes into the Atlantic.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms remain in the forecast for South Florida
Wednesday with some very heavy downpours and isolated flooding possible
for urban areas. Extreme to Critical Fire Weather conditions have also
been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center in the Los Angeles vicinity
as gusty winds and dry conditions remain in place. Precipitation chances
will return to the Pacific Northwest by Thursday evening as another
Pacific system approaches the region. Much of the lower 48 will continue
to see well above average temperatures over the next couple of days, with
highs running 10-20 degrees above average for the Southeast Wednesday
(60s-70s), the south-central U.S. Thursday (60s-70s), and the West through
Thursday (40s-50s interior, 60s-70s West Coast and Deserts). The Northeast
will be more seasonable with highs in the mid-30s (interior) to low 50s
(coast). One region that will see much colder temperatures will be the
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, where highs will mainly be in the teens and
20s and gusty winds will lead to even colder wind chills. The northern
High Plains will see some relief Thursday as downsloping winds bring
warmer temperatures.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

17 DEC 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Records Its 9th. Session, longest losing streak since 1978, Markets Close Moderately Down In The Doldrums

December 17, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 268 points or 0.61%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 65 points or 0.32%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 23 points or 0.39%,
  • Gold $2,661 down $9.50 or 0.36%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.52 or 0.74%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.401 up 0.002 points or 0.046%,
  • USD index $106.99 down $0.13 or 0.12%,
  • Bitcoin $106,499 up $0,671 or 0.63%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 108,226)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

The US stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its most extended losing streak in 46 years – marking its ninth consecutive day of losses. This is the longest losing streak since February 1978. The downturn comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year. Investors widely expect a 0.25% rate cut on Wednesday, with particular focus on potential guidance for future rate adjustments. Nvidia experienced a significant decline, dropping more than 10% from its November record. UnitedHealth Group was among the biggest losers within the Dow, falling over 3%. Some technology stocks like Tesla, Alphabet, and Apple continued to hit record highs.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024 were up 4.0% from November 2023 (down from 4.6% year-over-year last month). This is relatively good growth and may be indicative of consumers returning to the trough.

Industrial production (IP) declined 1.9% year-over-year in November 2024 with components manufacturing declining 1.0% year-over-year, mining declining 1.3% year-over-year, and utilities growing 0.1% year-over-year. Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8 percent in November, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. As I have been saying – manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Hurricane Fury in 2024 Slows US Gulf Energy Production
  • The U.S. Desperately Needs to Protect Itself Against Future MIneral Export Bans
  • Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Slump by 11% in Two Months
  • Goldman Sachs: Huge Spare Capacity Weighs on Oil Prices
  • EU Solar Power Growth Slows
  • Dow tumbles more than 260 points for nine-day decline, its longest since 1978: Live updates
  • The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here’s what to expect
  • Grubhub to pay $25 million in FTC settlement over harmful practices against diners, workers
  • The Fed is likely to cut rates, but some worry it may not be the right move, CNBC survey found
  • Some Honesty About Inflation
  • MicroStrategy’s quirky Nasdaq-100 nod could mean more risk for fund investors
  • Treasury yields hold steady after November retail sales, industrial production

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 17, 2024

December 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Dec 17 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024 – 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024

…Another Atmospheric River to bring heavy coastal rains and high
elevation mountain snow to the Northwest…

…Unsettled, wet weather expected for most of the eastern U.S.
Wednesday…

…Periods of snow for the Northern Plains through mid-week with heavier
accumulations most likely Wednesday night…

…Much above average temperatures expected for most of the lower 48 into
mid-week…

Yet another Pacific system will help to usher in a wave of Pacific
moisture/Atmospheric River into the Pacific Northwest and inland over the
northern Great Basin/Rockies Tuesday. A more northerly track will help to
focus the heaviest lower elevation rainfall along the coastal ranges of
northern Oregon and Washington State, with heavy high elevation mountain
snow for the northern Cascades. Some moderate snow accumulations will also
be possible into the northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies,
aided in part by a leading wave departing the region early this morning.
Lower elevation inland locations can expect a wintry mix of rain and snow,
with some freezing rain possible to the east of the Cascades in
Washington. Precipitation chances should come down through the day
Wednesday for the Pacific Northwest while lingering longer in the northern
Rockies.

A lingering frontal boundary will help to trigger some showers and
thunderstorms over portions of the Southern Plains east into the Lower
Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through the day Tuesday. An
approaching upper-level wave will help to reinforce the boundary overnight
Tuesday and enhance moist, southerly flow from the Gulf, leading to
increasing storm coverage and locally heavy rainfall. The boundary will
push eastward as a cold front towards the East Coast through the day
Wednesday spreading showers and storms into the Southeast and coastal
Northeast. Colder air in place to the north over the interior Northeast
will lead to snow showers with some light to moderate accumulations for
higher mountain elevations.

A quick moving upper-level wave will bring some snow showers to portions
of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest today with some light accumulations
possible, especially from central South Dakota east through southern
Minnesota. These light snow showers will spread eastward into the Great
Lakes Wednesday. Then, another more potent wave will approach from the
west during the day Wednesday leading to lee cyclogenesis over the
northern High Plains and helping to consolidate/strengthen a surface
frontal system. This will lead to enhanced lift over the Northern Plains
and a quick developing and potentially intense band of snowfall by
Wednesday evening. Snow totals of 2-4″ can be expected with locally
heavier amounts possible through Thursday morning. Some mixed
precipitation with light ice accumulations will be possible as well.

Elsewhere, persistent shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for
Florida, particularly along the Atlantic Coast. Some intense downpours
will be possible Tuesday with an isolated threat of some flooding in the
urban areas of South Florida. Most of the country will continue to see
well above average temperatures through at least mid-week. Forecast highs
Tuesday range from the 40s and 50s in the interior West and New England;
the 50s and 60s for the West Coast, central Plains, Ohio Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic; and 60s and 70s for the Southwest, southern Plains, and
Southeast. A cold front will bring some cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to the Plains Wednesday as highs fall into the 40s and 50s.
One region that will remain much colder will be the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest, with most highs only into the teens and 20s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

16 DEC 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Records Its 8th. Session Closing In The Red, While The Small Cap Flourish, Closing Fractionally Higher – Déjà vu

December 16, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 111 points or 0.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 247 points or 1.24%,   (New Historic high 20,205, Closed at 20,704)
  • S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.38%,
  • Gold $2,671 down $5.20 or 0.19%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.68 or 0.95%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.397 down 0.002 points or 0.046%,
  • USD index $106.88 down $0.13 or 0.12%,
  • Bitcoin $106,014 up $2,958 or 2.79%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 107,705)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Nasdaq Composite achieved a fresh record high on Monday, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks and the cryptocurrency market. Big Tech stocks hitting new record highs include Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Broadcom (AVGO). MicroStrategy’s stock surged ahead of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 whilst Super Micro Computer Inc. shares fell due to its upcoming removal from the Nasdaq 100. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined for its eighth consecutive session of losses. Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year on Tuesday, with a 97% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut. The key focus is on the Fed’s potential outlook for rate cuts in 2025, considering persistent inflation and potential policy challenges. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $107,000. Healthcare stocks (CVS, UnitedHealth, Cigna) declined after comments from President-elect Donald Trump about pharmacy benefit managers.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey declined thirty-one points to 0.2. Last month I rode my high horse telling you this is a survey and I do not like surveys. When I was in the industry – I had my admin assistant fill out these survey forms (telling him or her not to bother me with questions – just get it done). How many people out there think that in November manufacturing was screaming good and in December things now suck. Bottom line is that I see no real end to the manufacturing recession in the USA.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Copper: The Driving Force Behind the Clean Energy Revolution
  • Indonesia’s Growing Nickel Production Disrupts Global Market
  • Forget Short-Term Noise: Oil Prices Are All About the Long-Term Trend
  • What Does The Fall Of Assad’s Syria Mean To The Key Players In The Middle East?
  • Russia’s $10 Billion Shadow Armada Exposed by Ukrainian Intelligence
  • Nvidia falls into correction territory, down more than 10% from its record close
  • Dow falls for an eighth day ahead of Fed, but Nasdaq notches another record: Live updates
  • Broadcom jumps 11%, extending record run as Goldman expresses ‘higher conviction’
  • Bitcoin rises to new record above $107,000 ahead of this week’s Fed decision
  • How Will Apple Compete With $168 AI Smartphones From China?
  • Intrinsic Value Of Crypto: What Is It & How To Calculate It
  • 2-year Treasury yield ends at almost three-week high after strong services-sector data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.