It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 19 2024 – 12Z Sun Apr 21 2024

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms push into the central/southern
Appalachians and Southeast today…

…Wet snow and wintry mix over the central High Plains on Saturday as
heavy rain threat develops over parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley…

…Unseasonably warm across much of the South and Southwest as below
average temperatures expand throughout the Great Plains and Midwest…

The main weather feature and focus for showers and thunderstorms through
this weekend will be a cold front progressing across the East and stalling
between the Southeast and southern Texas. Unsettled weather will start the
short range forecasting period located across the central/southern
Appalachians and Southeast. These locations will have the greatest chances
for isolated thunderstorms to become strong enough to produce locally
damaging wind gusts and hail. Elsewhere, light showers are expected to
extend into the Northeast through tonight.

Precipitation is also expected to become more widespread and increase in
intensity throughout the central High Plains and Colorado Front Range by
tonight. A mix of rain and snow is likely, with heavy snow (greater than 4
inches) most likely along the Front Range and lesser amounts into the
foothills on eastward into the High Plains. Snow chances should gradually
subside by Saturday evening, but chilly temperatures will remain across
much of the Great Plains on Sunday.

Meanwhile, instances of heavy rain and scattered flash flooding are
possible on Saturday across parts of the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley as numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms develop
to the north of a stationary front. Repeating rounds of intense rainfall
and areas with wet antecedent ground conditions have prompted a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall between central Texas and the
ArkLaMiss region. Fortunately, this system is forecast to quickly exit to
the east on Sunday and shift shower and thunderstorm chances to the
Southeast, limiting the flooding threat somewhat.

A quick-moving system will also swing light precipiation into the
Northwest this weekend, which will continue to promote above average
temperatures over the Southwest. Spring warmth will also be found
throughout much of the South today and Saturday for places avoiding
afternoon rain. For a majority of the Nation; however, well below average
temperatures will remain locked in place this weekend underneath high
pressure streaming in from Canada. Highs are anticipated to range from the
40s in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the 60s from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley. Lows into the 30s could produce
frost and/or freeze conditions in the Midwest as well.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Apr 18 2024 – 00Z Sat Apr 20 2024

…Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley this evening; threat shifts to the Ohio and middle Mississippi
valleys and Southern Plains Thursday…

…Warm to hot temperatures across the southern U.S.; chillier weather
spreading southeast from the northern Rockies/Plains…

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop into the evening along
and ahead of a cold front now advancing eastward across Lower Michigan and
the Ohio Valley. Some of these storms may become strong to severe,
producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition to
severe weather, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are
concerns as well.

Later this evening, storms are forecast to develop from the central Plains
into the lower Missouri Valley. These storms too may become strong to
severe, with damaging hail expected to be the primary threat.

As the system in Plains moves further east, storms are likely to redevelop
from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains on Thursday. Severe weather
will once again become a concern, especially across portions of the mid
Mississippi into the lower Ohio valleys. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for portions of the region, noting
that strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, and possibly a few
tornadoes, are likely tomorrow. While widespread heavy rains are not
expected, locally heavy accumulations resulting in isolated flash flooding
are possible.

Temperatures across the southern U.S. will remain warm through the period,
with highs in the upper 80s and 90s common from the Southwest to the
Southeast over the next couple of days. Much cooler temperatures now
centered over the northern Rockies and Plains will spread southeastward,
lowering temperatures across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley by Friday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

[Note that at the time of publication some NOAA websites seemed to not be working. The NWS text forecast is working. One can find the U.S. forecast in the international forecasts since the U.S. is part of the world.]

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024

…Storm system to bring the threat of severe weather and isolated flash
flooding to the Mississippi Valley Tuesday and the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley on Wednesday…

…Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next couple of
days for the northern Rockies…

…Warm temperatures continue across the South and Desert Southwest,
chillier weather expected for the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies…

A seasonably strong low pressure/frontal system over the central U.S. will
move from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday. A
sustained arc of showers and thunderstorms wrapping around the low over
the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to
progress to the northeast, with more scattered storms extending southward
through the central/southern Plains along an eastward advancing cold
front. A renewed round of storms is expected along and ahead of the cold
front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear along with
more than sufficient buoyancy will be available in the warm sector for
robust supercell development. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (level 3/5) for portions of southern Iowa,
northeastern Missouri, and far western Illinois where these storms will
pose a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes,
including the risk for a strong tornado. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/5)
extends southward through Missouri into northern Arkansas where a more
isolated threat for storms will exist, but will still pose the threat for
all hazards. In addition to severe weather, rounds of heavy rainfall from
the more widespread storms over the Upper Midwest along with potentially
more scattered but heavier downpours with storms to the south through the
Middle Mississippi Valley will pose a threat for some isolated flash
flooding.

The system will continue eastward on Wednesday into the Great Lakes region
and Ohio Valley. Similar to Tuesday, storms will likely be ongoing
overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially to the north from the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Some scattered storms may also
continue along the cold front as it pushes into the Ohio Valley. A renewed
round of storm development is expected ahead of the front by Wednesday
afternoon, with a Slight Risk of severe weather in place from eastern
Indiana into southern Michigan and western Ohio for the threat of large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The storms are forecast to
continue overnight Wednesday into the Mid-Atlantic. Again, similar to
Tuesday, more widespread rainfall over the Great Lakes and the potential
for some more potent downpours with storms further south will pose a
threat for some isolated flash flooding.

To the West, another upper-level trough/associated surface frontal system
pushing southeastward through the northern Rockies will bring the chance
for some moderate to locally heavy snow for higher elevations in the
mountains of Montana Tuesday and into Wyoming by Wednesday morning. Winter
weather-related advisories and warnings are in place for snow
accumulations generally between 6-12″, with higher amounts more likely in
Wyoming. Some lighter snow showers will also be possible along the
trailing end of the frontal system over the northern Cascades Tuesday.
Otherwise, the remainder of the country will be mostly dry. Temperatures
will tend to generally be at or above average along the southern tier of
the country with cooler temperatures along the northern tier. Forecast
highs in the 80s are expected from the Southern Plains east through the
Southeast, with 70s and 80s for California and the Central Plains east
through the Ohio Valley, and 70s in the Mid-Atlantic. The warmest
temperatures will be over the Desert Southwest as highs climb into the
90s. To the north, 50s and 60s are expected for the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Plains, and New England. Areas of the Upper Great Lakes and
northern Rockies will see the coolest temperatures, with highs mainly in
the 40s by Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024

…Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather and
isolated flash flooding to the Plains Monday, followed by the Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday…

…Scattered thunderstorms, including the threat for some severe weather,
from the Upper Ohio Valley east through the Mid-Atlantic Monday…

…Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next couple of
days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades, northern/central
Rockies, and eastern Great Basin…

…Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains
Monday….

A deep, upper-level low and associated low pressure/frontal system over
the West will begin to push into the Plains Monday. The accompanying
height falls will help lead to lee cyclogenesis, rapidly
deepening/organizing the low pressure system over the central High Plains.
Gulf moisture return aided by intensifying southerly flow will eventually
lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances by Monday evening to
the northwest of the low over the central/northern High Plains, along a
warm front slowly lifting northward through the Missouri and Middle
Mississippi Valleys, and southward ahead of a dry line/rapidly approaching
cold front through the central and southern Plains. An Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms (level 3/5) has been issued by the Storm Prediction
Center from the low pressure center in western Nebraska/South Dakota
arcing southward ahead of the approaching dry line/cold front across
portions of the central Plains. Some more robust, supercell thunderstorms
are expected to produce instances of very large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southward into the
southern Plains where storm coverage is more uncertain, but any storms
that do develop will still pose the same threat. Additionally, there will
be a conditional threat for some isolated instances of flash flooding,
both along and north of the warm front from the Northern Plains into the
Missouri Valley where widespread, but not quite as potent storms will
exist, and south into portions of the central/southern Plains where more
potent storms will exist, but drier antecedent conditions will limit the
risk.

The storms will progress eastward with the frontal system through the
overnight hours Monday and into the day Tuesday, spreading into the
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Areas where residual
storms from the night before clear, most likely through the Middle
Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex, will see a renewed
threat for severe thunderstorms. Another Enhanced Risk has been issued for
portions of southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and western Illinois near
the track of the low pressure center where favorable wind fields will lead
to a locally greater threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes, including the potential for a strong tornado. A Slight Risk
once again extends further south towards the Ark-La-Tex where storms will
likely be more isolated, but still pose a threat for all hazards. A broad
threat for isolated flash flooding will exist over the region very similar
to Monday, with more widespread storms to the north and more isolated but
potent downpours possible to the south.

Further east, another round of storms is expected Monday along and ahead
of a cold front sagging southward through the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
eastward through the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is a Slight Risk of
severe weather centered around the Tidewater region of Virginia where
enough CAPE for some stronger updrafts will exist, posing a threat for a
few instances of large hail and damaging winds. In the West,
winter-weather related advisories/warnings are in place for higher
elevations of the mountains of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies
where remaining moisture under the influence of the upper-low is forecast
to lead to snow accumulations of 6-12″+. Another upper-level wave and
accompanying surface frontal system pushing southeastward through the
Cascades Monday and northern Rockies Tuesday will bring a similar chance
for moderate to locally heavy snowfall for higher mountain elevations.

Warmer than average temperatures will continue Monday for most areas of
the central/eastern U.S. as upper-level ridging precedes the system over
the West. Highs generally in the 80s are expected across the
central/southern Plains east through the Mississippi Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. A few 90s will even be possible over the
central/southern High Plains. These hot temperatures and dry conditions,
along with intensifying winds due to the deepening low pressure system,
have prompted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of Fire Weather from the Storm
Prediction Center Monday. Warm, similarly above average highs are also
expected across the northern tier, with most locations outside of the
Upper Great Lakes/Interior Northeast forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures will slip a few degrees in general Tuesday, but still remain
above average for most locations. Cooler temperatures will continue Monday
across southern portions of the West under the influence of the upper-low,
with 50s and 60s across California and the Great Basin and 70s in the
Desert Southwest. Conditions will rebound by about 10 degrees on Tuesday
as the upper-low moves eastward over the Plains.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.