Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 7, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 07 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 07 2024 – 12Z Thu May 09 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies…

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and then to the Southern Plain on Tuesday will develop a wave of
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday. The boundary will
move off the Northeast Coast by Thursday as a second wave of low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains and moves to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday.

As the front advances eastward on Tuesday, it will bring with it showers
and severe thunderstorms, particularly over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Middle Mississippi Valley. In light of this, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of Indiana,
western Ohio, and north-central Kentucky through Wednesday morning. The
potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
There is also a heightened threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail two
inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, and north-central Kentucky.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Southern Plains, Central Gulf Coast,
and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, as the second wave of low pressure moves out of the Southern
Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the storm will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma, a small part of
Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southern
Indiana, Tennessee, and a small portion of Mississippi. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southern Plains from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an
additional threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern
Plains.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the region from Wednesday into Thursday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northeast to Southeast on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the northwestern sector of the country
will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest through late Tuesday night. The system will produce rain over
parts of the Northern High Plains and heavy snow over parts of the
Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

06 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Main Indexes Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, Trended Higher, Then Closed At Session Highs

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 177 points or 0.46%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.19%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.03%,
  • Gold $2,333 up $24.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.45,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.494% down 0.006 points,
  • USD index $105.12 up $0.090,
  • Bitcoin $62,151 down $741 (1.20%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 6, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 06 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 06 2024 – 12Z Wed May 08 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Monday and a Slight Risk across the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Northern High
Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations from the Pacific Northwest to the
Northern/Central Rockies…

A front extending from the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains to the
Southern Rockies will advance eastward to the Lower Great Lakes and
southwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The deep
upper-level trough associated with the system will help produce heavy snow
over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and the Uinta Mountains on
Monday.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Pains on Monday and Tuesday. The system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska, western Iowa/Missouri, and northeastern
Oklahoma as the front moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, the moisture over the Northern High Plains will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern
Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High
Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, as the cold front moves across the Ohio Valley, the boundary
will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Ohio, Indiana,
Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, extreme
northeastern Arkansas, and a small portion of northern Tennessee.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater over parts of the Ohio Valley.

Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Central Gulf Coast on
Monday and over parts of the Northeast and Southeast on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, another front onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern Intermountain Region and into Central California
by late Monday afternoon. The northern half of the boundary will dissipate
by Tuesday morning, while the southern half moves southeastward to the
Southern Plains/Southern Rockies, linking up with the front and extending
westward over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon.

On Monday, rain and higher-elevation snow will develop over the Pacific
Northwest as the system moves onshore over the Northwest. The snow will be
heavy over the Southern Cascades. Snow will also develop over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region Monday night.

On Tuesday, onshore flow will keep rain and higher-elevation snow over
parts of the Northwest. Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern
Rockies will aid in producing heavy snow over parts of the region.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Comparing Two Data Organizations for Federal Deficit Spending vs Inflation. Part 1

Two studies have been performed on the correlations between U.S. Federal Deficit Spending and CPI Inflation. The first used federal deficits for fiscal years between 1914 and 2022. The second study used the quarterly data available for federal deficit spending starting in 1966.  This article compares the results of the two studies.


Photo by Indira Tjokorda on Unsplash

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 5, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 05 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 – 12Z Tue May 07 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Northern High Plains
and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday…

…Heavy snow over the southern Cascades, Northern Rockies, and Uinta
Mountains on Sunday and Monday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Monday…

A front extending from the Northern Intermountain Region to Southern
California on Sunday will advance eastward to the Northern/Middle
Mississippi Valley and then to the Southern Plains. At the same time, the
associated surface low deepens significantly by Tuesday.

The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Great Basin, with
heavy snow developing over parts of the Southern Cascades. Scattered rain
and higher-elevation snow will also develop over parts of California.
Overnight Sunday, the snow will expand into the Northern/Central Rockies
as light rain develops over the Northern High Plains.

On Monday, the snow will continue over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Northern/Central Rockies, with heavy snow developing over parts
of the Northern Rockies and Uinta Mountains.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Pains Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. The moisture will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern
Montana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High Plains from Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska and western Iowa/Missouri as the front
moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

More significantly, the system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Meanwhile, another front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains will slowly move eastward off the Northeast Coast on Sunday. At the
same time, the western portion returns northward as a warm front over the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys by Tuesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf
of Mexico will stream northward over eastern Texas, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over eastern Texas through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, showers
and thunderstorms will extend from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to
the Southeast on Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue along
and near the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and
southward from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Monday into
Tuesday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

EIA Provides Information on the U.S. Oil Reserves – It is looking pretty good- Posted on May 4, 2024

EIA  the U.S. Energy Information Agency has issued their estimate of U.S. Oil and Gas Reserves in 2022. It takes them time to obtain the information by survey and validate the information. It is not simple for oil and gas operators to know what their reserves are. In this article, I present the EIA report in its entirety with two additional EIA graphics. My comments as usual are in a box.

What are reserves and what are they not? Proven (same as proved) reserves are the amount of a natural resource that can be economically extracted at current prices with existing technology Aside from the accuracy of the estimate there are three other variables in the definition that allow for future changes in the estimate of the reserves: “known”, “existing technology” and “current prices”. Usually proved reserves are an underestimate but sometimes what is considered to be a proved reserve turns out not to be as the extraction process proceeds. Estimates are usually also made for probable reserves, possible reserves, yet-to-be-discovered reserves, and total recoverable reserves. Based on my experience, proven reserves are important in investment decisions. But the other categories are also considered. What you like to see is the gross addition to proved reserves each year being equal to or larger than the withdrawals for that year. If that stops happening, it is concerning. On the other hand, If prices increase or if there is an important advancement in technology that allows more of the technically recoverable to be moved into one of the reserve categories. Sophisticated investors pay attention to the changes in the reserves. Those in the industry are mostly concerned about prices as a decline in prices caused a write-down in reserves. HERE is a good resource for mining accounting. Oil and gas should be fairly similar. My opinion is that this falls into the category of Buyer Beware.

In hard rock mining, which is my background, you prove up reserves mostly by drilling. In oil and gas, it is by drilling and pumping. IMO it is easier to determine your reserves in hard rock mining than oil and gas but they may not be more accurate.   In both sectors prices impact reserves. In oil gas, every well you drill provides information on what your reserves are. That is one reason why we look at it every year.

Some readers will need to click on “Read More” to access the remainder of this article.

03 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Gaps Up Over 400 Points At The Opening Bell, Trades Sideways, Closes Near Session Highs After Weaker-Than-Expected April Jobs Report

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 450 points or 1.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.99%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.26%,
  • Gold $2,309 down $0.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.86,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.500% down 0.071 points,
  • USD index $105.05 down $0.250,
  • Bitcoin $62,117 up $2,956 (4.94%),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 605 Canada +2 to 120

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 (establishment survey) in April 2024, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 % (household survey). The majority of job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. There was a major discrepancy this month with the household survey only showing 25,000 jobs added (red bar in graph below) against the headlined 175,000 from the establishment survey (blue bar in graph below). Before the pandemic, it was estimated that the US economy needed to add 60,000–100,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and retirements. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee views April’s 175,000 job gains as “very solid.” It’s a sign the economy is shifting back toward pre-Covid “conventional times.

In April 2024, the ISM Services PMI® registered 49.4%, 2 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 51.4%. The composite index indicated contraction in April after 15 consecutive months of growth since a reading of 49 percent in December 2022, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 50.9 percent in April, which is 6.5 percentage points lower than the 57.4 percent recorded in March. This low reading is a warning that the services side of the economy is stalling.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 3, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 03 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 – 12Z Sun May 05 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and the Southern Plains on Saturday…

…Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains…

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will slowly
dissipate on Friday while a new front develops over parts of the Central
Plains/Great Basin. Upper-level energy over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and very moist air will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern Texas and
Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast through
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Further, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches or greater
over the area.

Moreover, the developing front over western Kansas will cause a second
area of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains
through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will march eastward into the Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.

By Saturday, the new front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Southern High Plains. Moisture pooling along the boundary will create
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over central Texas and parts of
southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Similarly, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches
or greater over the area. The showers and thunderstorms will also develop
along and ahead of the front from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.

A dissipating front will move over the Appalachians into the Southeast on
Saturday. Rain showers will develop over parts of the Northeast into the
Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will extend from
parts of the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will create light
snow over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on
Friday, ending by Friday night. Moreover, a front over the Eastern Pacific
will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday, moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and Southern California by
Sunday morning.

The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast
overnight Friday, expanding into Northern California by Saturday morning.
Light snow will develop over parts of the higher elevations of the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. As the front moves inland, rain expands into
Southern California on Saturday afternoon. Heavy snow will develop over
parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains overnight Saturday into Sunday. By
Sunday morning, snow will move over parts of the Great Basin.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

02 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Moderately Higher, Slipped Into The Red Briefly, Then Traded Upwards Closing Sharply Higher In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 322 points or 0.85%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.51%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.91%,
  • Gold $2,314 up $2.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.01,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.583% down 0.008 points,
  • USD index $105.34 down $0.410,
  • Bitcoin $59,329 up $1,843 (3.20%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 64,789 job cuts in April 2024, a 28% decrease from the 90,309 cuts announced one month prior. It is also down 3.3% from the 66,995 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. So far this year, companies have announced 322,043 job cuts, down 4.6% from the 337,411 announced through April last year.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was up 16.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – the deficit is worsening. Imports are up  2.7% year-over-year while exports are up 1.4% year-over-year. A worsening trade deficit moderates GDP.

New orders for manufactured goods in March 2024 are down 0.9% year-over-year – down 1.3% inflation adjusted.  This is directly opposite to the Federal Reserves manufacturing index which is up 1.0% year-over-year. In any event, manufacturing is not doing well in the current economy.

In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in 1Q2024 increased 2.9% year-over-year whilst unit labor costs increased 1.8% year-over-year. As long as productivity increases faster than costs – it slows export of jobs out of the U.S.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported jobs openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from March, which was the lowest reading since January 2021. The percent of small business owners reporting labor cost as their top small business operating problem increased one point from March to 11%, only two points below the highest reading of 13 percent reached in December 2021.  NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Hiring plans among small businesses increased once again in April, but open positions remain largely unfilled as owners struggle month after month to find employees. Overall, small businesses are not reporting net gains in employment as wage pressures and inflation keep the labor market tight.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 2, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 02 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 02 2024 – 12Z Sat May 04 2024

…Severe Thunderstorms and Flash Flooding concerns over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today…

…Cool and snowy in parts of the Northwest with above average and
potentially record breaking temperatures into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic on today…

The main area of concern will be across the Central part of the CONUS over
the next couple of days. Shortwave disturbances emerging from the base of
a mid-level trough anchored over the northern tier will generate scattered
to isolated thunderstorms across the Plains and Mississippi Valley today.
Some storms could turn severe, particularly over portions of north-central
Texas, where the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of Severe Thunderstorms. Thunderstorms over areas that received plenty of
rain recently may cause additional flash flooding concerns, which is why
there’s a targeted Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over
southeastern Texas. The primary threat of severe weather and excessive
rainfall wanes on Friday as the associated low pressure system and
associated storms move into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Great
Lakes regions. A second cold front will sweep through the Great Plains on
Friday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

An upper trough stationed over the Northwest will generate below average
temperatures across the northern tier today and Friday. This cool airmass
will support high elevation snow across the western mountains, but
particularly over the Northern Rockies, where 6-12 inches of snow are
expected by Saturday morning. A new low pressure system will emerge over
the Pacific Northwest on Friday night, bringing with it enough moisture
for low elevation rain and mountain snow. An upper level ridge downstream
of approaching shortwave impulses will generate well above average
temperatures from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today and Friday. Some
areas within these regions may tie or break high temperature records
today. There’s a Moderate Heat Risk over portions of the Mid-Atlantic
today affecting individuals who are sensitive to heat, especially those
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Temperatures will
cool down a bit heading into the weekend after a cold front pushes through.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.