Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 30 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 02 2024

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue for the Southeast through the
end of the weekend, while simmering heat builds across the southern Plains
and California’s Central Valley early this week…

…Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat for the East Coast today…

…Showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners/Southwest over the next
few days; wet weather returns to the upper Midwest by Monday…

The transition to July will continue to feature areas of potentially
dangerous heat throughout parts of the southern U.S. and California. At
the upper levels, higher pressure over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will focus much of the heat over the south-central U.S.
over the next few days before ridging begins to build toward the West
Coast by Tuesday. This equates to high temperatures in the mid-to-upper
90s today from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. This level of heat
and the potential for maximum temperatures into the low 100s are expected
to remain throughout the south-central U.S. through at least Tuesday,
while much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic cools off behind a cold
front. Overnight temperatures are expected to be quite warm over the
southern Plains and not offer much time for relief after scorching daytime
temperatures. In fact, several daily warm minimum temperature records
could be broken/tied over the next few days in this region. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories currently stretch from Texas to New Jersey.
For California, a dangerous and long-duration heat event is forecast to
begin on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the triple digits, which
has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches to be posted. These
readings will impact interior valley locations and areas away from the
immediate coastline. Residents and visitors are urged to follow proper
heat safety as this level of heat could be deadly for anyone without
effective cooling.

Thunderstorms and instances of heavy rain are forecast to impact parts of
the East Coast, Midwest, and Four Corners/Southwest over the next few
days. A potent cold front ushering in a comfortable airmass to the Great
Lakes and Midwest today will continue to trek towards the East Coast while
sparking numerous showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could turn
severe between Maine and the Carolinas, with damaging wind gusts the
primary weather hazard. Heavy rain could also lead to isolated flash
floods between New England and the Southeast. This same frontal boundary
is anticipated to focus additional thunderstorm chances on Monday across
the Southeast. The flash flood threat is expected to be highest across
coastal South Carolina and southeast Georgia, where slow-moving storms
could produce a few inches of rainfall in a very short period of time.

The other notable weather system impacting the Lower 48 at the midway
point of the year is forecast to push from the Intermountain West to the
upper Midwest by early this week. Lingering rainfall chances and the
potential for flash flooding is expected to continue as the upper trough
traversing the western U.S. maintains a fresh flow of moisture-rich air
into the Southwest and southern Rockies. Flash Flood Watches remain in
effect across parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah. On the dry side of
the system, gusty winds and low relative humidity are anticipated to
create Critical Fire Weather across parts of the central Great Basin
today. Meanwhile, areas of robust thunderstorms could turn severe by this
evening throughout the northern High Plains as an area of low pressure
develops. This low pressure system is then forecast to spread unsettled
weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. Scattered
severe thunderstorms are possible, with an elevated threat for tornadoes,
damaging wind gusts, and large hail over parts of central Nebraska. For
the upper Midwest, any heavy rain will be unwelcome as ongoing river
flooding impacts the region. Any additional rainfall could exacerbate
flooding concerns, with the potential for numerous thunderstorms creating
an increasing flash flood risk for this part of the country. As the system
continues to progress eastward on Tuesday and an attached cold front slows
its forward progress over the Midwest and central Plains, additional
chances for severe weather and heavy rain are expected to continue.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 29 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 01 2024

…Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat enters the lower Great Lakes
and northern Mid-Atlantic today before sliding to the East Coast on
Sunday…

…Unsettled weather remains throughout parts of the southern Rockies and
Southwest over the next few days, while wet weather returns to the upper
Midwest by Monday…

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue from parts of the southern
Plains to the Southeast this weekend…

A surface low pressure system currently crossing the upper Great Lakes and
anticipated to swing through southeast Canada this weekend will help push
a cold front into the lower Great Lakes by tonight. This cold front is
expected to spark scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from the Ohio
Valley to the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic, with damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes the most likely weather hazards,
particularly from eastern Ohio to central Pennsylvania. Heavy rain may
also lead to instances of flash flooding throughout this region and into
the interior Northeast. As the cold front nears the East Coast on Sunday,
another round of robust thunderstorms are possible between the Southeast
and New England, with some storms containing frequent lightning and gusty
winds. This same frontal boundary will also be responsible for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms extending westward across the
mid-Mississippi Valley, central/southern Plains, and southern Rockies this
weekend. The slow-moving nature of thunderstorms over the sensitive
terrain of the southern Rockies and Southwest will create additional daily
chances for flash flooding through at least early next week. More
specifically, parts of northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
southeast Arizona are most likely to be dealing with thunderstorms
producing intense rainfall rates this weekend.

The next upper-level trough to traverse the Intermountain West is forecast
to spark thunderstorms across the northern High Plains on Sunday prior to
spreading rainfall chances into the upper Midwest on Monday. Heavy rain is
not welcome for much of the upper Mississippi and middle Missouri valleys
as ongoing river flooding continues. However, the threat for another round
of organized thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates
and severe weather has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall to be issued for much of the region on Monday.

Dangerously high heat and humidity is forecast to continue across the
south-central and southeastern U.S. through the start of July. High
temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s and low 100s can be expected, with
heat index values up to 110 degrees throughout the lower Mississippi
Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Overnight temperatures will not
offer much relief and only dip into the low 80s and upper 70s. In fact,
the warm overnight temperatures are forecast to break dozens of daily
records and potentially a few June monthly records from the southern
Plains to Mid-Atlantic. Much cooler weather and below average temperatures
are forecast to follow high pressure as it builds southward from the
northern Plains today to the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday.
Comfortable high temperatures in the 70s with mostly sunny skies can be
anticipated across these locations.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Fri Jun 28 2024 – 00Z Sun Jun 30 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected across portions of the
northern/central Plains today and into the Midwest Friday…

…Dangerously hot conditions will continue for parts of the South and
Southeast…

…Monsoon-like conditions persist today in the Four Corners region…

A strong upper level trough is swinging across the Pacific Northwest today
and pushing a surface frontal system southeast across the Intermountain
West into the northern and central Plains. Conditions will be supportive
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the
Plains, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the
northern and central Plains with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms today. Potential severe storm hazards will include very
large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy
downpours may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding across
portions of the Plains, especially where soils are saturated from recent
heavy rains. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes two Slight Risk
areas (level 2/4) in the northern and central Plains where flash flooding
will be most likely.

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today also highlights a Slight Risk
area (level 2/4) over the Four Corners region where persistent
monsoon-like rains are ongoing. Precipitation chances will decrease on
Friday for the Four Corners region as the frontal system approaches from
the north, but the front is forecast to stall and lift back northwards as
a warm front over the weekend. This will allow moisture to stream into the
Southwest ahead of the front, continuing rain chances in portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend.

The frontal system will push across much of the Central U.S. and lift a
warm front north across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Precipitation chances will spread east as the system progresses, expanding
the severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threats into portions of the
Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms from the central Plains towards the Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley on Friday, and WPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall for this area as well. Potential storm hazards will be
large hail, damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and locally heavy rain.

This weekend, the broad frontal system will push into the eastern U.S.
while the back end lifts north across the Intermountain West.
Precipitation chances will extend from the Northeast down across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central/southern Plains and Southwest. The
potential for severe weather will decrease as the upper level energy
becomes less organized, and the Storm Prediction Center has only a small
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of Ohio and
western Pennsylvania. The risk for flash flooding will decrease as well,
and only isolated instances of flash flooding are anticipated along the
frontal system.

Temperature-wise, dangerously hot conditions will persist across parts of
the South and Southeast through the weekend. High temperatures near 100
degrees will be common across the southern Plains and Texas, and high
temperatures will likely reach above 90 degrees each day in much of the
Southeast. High humidity will make these temperatures feel even hotter,
and heat indices may reach as high as 105-110 degrees. Daily summertime
convection will bring some relief to the Southeast, but mainly dry
conditions are forecast across Texas through the weekend. Overnight lows
will also remain above average in the 70s and 80s, providing little relief
from the heat.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 27 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 27 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 29 2024

…Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
northern/central Plains Thursday expands into the Midwest Friday…

…Dangerously hot conditions continue over portions of the southern
Plains…

…Monsoon-like conditions persist for the Four Corners Region…

An upper-level trough passing over the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
will begin to overspread the northern/central High Plains Thursday
afternoon. Lee cyclogenesis will lead to a deepening surface low over the
northern High Plains, with strengthening wind fields helping to reinforce
a warm front lifting northeastward across the High Plains and a trailing
cold front extending southwest into the Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected Thursday afternoon in the presence of moist,
upslope flow. Ample instability and strengthening wind fields will promote
some more intense storms, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for the threat of very large
hail and a few tornadoes. Storms will likely increase in coverage into the
evening given enhanced forcing along the cold/occluded front, with a line
of storms expected to propagate eastward with a threat for significant
damaging winds. Some locally heavy downpours will also be possible given
anomalously high moisture available. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) extends east through North Dakota as more widespread storms
and heavy rainfall are expected with the eastward moving convective
system, and some scattered flash flooding is possible. A similar scenario
exists further south as more widespread, heavy downpour producing storms
are expected to organize and grow upscale along and ahead of the
northeastward moving warm front. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in place for northern Kansas and southern Nebraska to cover the threat
for some scattered flash flooding here as well.

The upper-level trough/surface frontal system will continue eastward on
Friday, bringing storm chances to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes region back southwest along the cold front through the central
Plains. Initial storm focus will be ahead of the northeastward lifting
warm front over the Middle Mississippi Valley, with the chance storms to
the west overnight Thursday persist across the region. Then, later in the
afternoon, a renewed round of storms is expected along the increasingly
east-to-west oriented cold front. Storm motions relatively parallel to the
boundary will bring a higher threat for heavier rain totals as storms
repeat over the same regions, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
extending from the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley west through the Middle
Missouri Valley. More sensitive conditions over the area due to recent
heavy rainfall will increase the risk for flash flooding. In addition,
there is another Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) over the same
region and west to the central High Plains with large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes all anticipated.

To the south, temperatures will remain dangerously hot over the southern
Plains under the influence of an upper-level high over the
Southwest/south-central U.S. Forecast highs Thursday will range from the
upper-90s to low-100s from central/northern Texas west through the
southern High Plains. Higher humidity over portions of central/northern
Texas into southern Oklahoma have prompted Heat Advisories as Heat Index
values may reach as high as 110. Hotter temperatures will flow back
northward following the warm front on Friday, with highs in the upper 90s
to low 100s reaching up into portions of the central Plains. Very warm
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s will provide little relief overnight.
An upper-level shortwave dipping down into the Southeast and interacting
with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will bring shower and storm
chances as well as some relief from the intense heat to most of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Forecast highs will remain in the upper
80s to low 90s over the next couple of days. However, areas of coastal
Georgia north through the Carolinas to the southeast of the boundary will
stay hot, with highs in the mid-90s and heat indices potentially reaching
into the low 100s. Unfortunately, upper-level ridging expanding over the
southern tier of the country will begin to bring more widespread heat back
to the region this weekend.

Monsoon-like conditions will persist over the Four Corners region Thursday
with the upper-level high overhead continuing to steer tropical moisture
northward. The upper-level trough arriving from the west will help to
encourage scattered thunderstorms with the threat for locally heavy
downpours. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall covers portions of western
New Mexico north through western Colorado and far eastern Utah for the
risk of some flash flooding. The trough will help to break down the
upper-high as it moves eastward on Friday, helping to reduce the influx of
moisture and keep the highest storm chances and risk for some isolated
flash flooding limited to southeastern Arizona.