This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 16 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 16 2024 – 12Z Sat May 18 2024

…Severe thunderstorms along with significant flash flooding possible
across portions of East Texas into the Gulf States through Saturday
morning…

…Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S today…

…Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week
…

Rain will spread across the Southern Plains and Gulf states as a hot,
moist airmass settles in across the South. This airmass will also
attribute to stint of unusually hot temperatures for South Florida and
Texas with heat indices rising above 100 degrees. Owing to the combination
of oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight temperatures
in these areas, major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of
hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk
guidance. The abundant moisture streaming northward as a warm front will
pool over Texas and the western/central Gulf Coast which will further
enhance rainfall efficiency and intensity as the cold front over the
Southern Plains advances eastward. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected to fall over areas that are already
sensitive from recent heavy rain and flooding. WPC has High Risk in effect
for portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana today, which is a
level 4 out of 4 for significant impacts. There will likely be numerous
areas that will experience excessive rainfall and flooding. In additional
to the rainfall threat, there will also be strong to severe thunderstorms.
SPC has an Enhanced Risk in place for today with the primary threats are
large hail and damaging winds followed by a Slight Risk for Friday for the
central Gulf states. WPC had another Moderate Risk depicted over southern
Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued
thunderstorm development on Friday.

Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the southern
DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances over Eastern Long
Island and Coastal New England through the morning hours, with 2-3″ of
rain and isolated flash flooding possible as the storm wraps up offshore.
Much of this activity in the Northeast will remain steady stratiform
rainfall, with the bulk of robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Across the West, most locations will have
dry and calm weather.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 15 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 15 2024 – 12Z Fri May 17 2024

…Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southeast today…

…Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week
…

…Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas and
Louisiana on Thursday…

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the eastern U.S.
ahead of an advancing low pressure system lifting through the Tennessee
Valley/Mid-Atlantic region and a slow moving cold front through the
Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will also be ushered into the Plains
along and ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms may have the
potential to become severe and possibly produce areas of excessive
rainfall through Thursday morning. SPC has an Enhanced Risk for sever
weather for the Texas Panhandle and portions of Oklahoma and southern
Kansas with Slight Risks for the Carolinas and central Florida. Across
South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching
mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm weather, with heat
indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Localized Major heat-related
impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week
according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. Hazardous heat also will
build into South Texas today and Thursday as a warm front returns
northward from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in a very warm and moist
airmass into the region.

With the return of the heat there will also be an environment that will be
very conducive for widespread heavy rainfall for the Gulf Coast, Southern
Plains and Lower/Mid-Mississippi Valley which could be a potentially
significant heavy rain event. SPC has a Slight Risk in place across the
South and WPC has a Moderate (Level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for
eastern Texas and Louisiana. Areal averages of 2 to 4 inches is forecast
for the western Gulf states and locally higher amounts will be possible.
Over the past 2 weeks there has been a near continuous stream of heavy
rainfall which has made much of this part of the region sensitive to any
additional rain.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 14 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 14 2024 – 12Z Thu May 16 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the
Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Tuesday…

…Above-average temperatures expected for South Florida and the West…

Wet and unsettled weather is in store for the Gulf Coast and Southeast
today thanks to a slow-moving frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms
across this region have the potential to turn severe and will be capable
of producing heavy rain. SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather,
indicating the potential exists for multiple corridors of damaging winds,
very large hail, and a one or two tornadoes covering central/northern
Florida and southern Georgia. Additionally, WPC has a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall and local flash flooding highlighted for much of the
same area as the severe weather threat while a broader Marginal Risk spans
northward to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. As the system
advances eastward the threats for severe storms and heavy rainfall will
reduce for Wednesday to a Marginal Risk.

Showers and storms over the lower Missouri an Mid-Mississippi valleys to
the Ohio Valley will spread east through the Mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast today. A brief window of drier weather over the Mississippi
Valley into early Wednesday will be followed by the next round of showers
and storms that will begin to spread into the region by late Wednesday.
Before impacting the central U.S. on Wednesday, this previously noted
system will spread showers and storms followed by much cooler temperatures
from the Northern Rockies into Central Rockies and High Plains on Tuesday.

South Florida will continue to have well above-normal, with near to record
high temperatures through Wednesday. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will
spread across the western states reaching well-above normal highs across
the region by midweek.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 13 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 13 2024 – 12Z Wed May 15 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the
Gulf Coast today and the Southeast Tuesday…

…Above average temperatures expected for the West…

A strong upper low will push east across the central U.S. today
accompanied by a strengthening surface low pressure system that will sweep
across the southern tier. A warm front will lift north across the Gulf
Coast ahead of the system and prime the environment for showers and
thunderstorms today. Severe thunderstorms are expected from central and
east Texas across portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida
Panhandle, and the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook highlights
this area with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms with an
embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. Potential storm hazards will
include significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Additionally, anomalous moisture and high instability over the Gulf Coast
region will support waves of very heavy rainfall that will likely lead to
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. There is Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect from east Texas across
southern portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle and a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) in effect from the toe of the Louisiana boot to
the western Florida Panhandle. Heavy rainfall will also be possible
further north in parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest
along a slow moving frontal boundary draped over the top of the southern
low pressure system.

The low pressure system will continue to move east through mid-week, and
the warm front will lift north across the Southeast while the trailing
cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the
eastern U.S. on Tuesday, and although the severe thunderstorm threat will
be lower than it was on Monday, isolated severe storms with heavy rainfall
will be possible in the Southeast. By Tuesday night, showers and storms
will expand into the northeast as well, then the southern low pressure
system will push into the Atlantic on Wednesday.

Unsettled weather is also expected to develop in the Intermountain West
and the northern and central Plains as a frontal system moves south across
the region over the next few days. Low pressure will consolidate and
strengthen over the northern/central Plains on Tuesday and move towards
the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and this system will create chances
for showers and thunderstorms and high elevation snow.

Temperature-wise, highs will be generally above average for much of the
western third of the U.S. through mid-week, but cooler air will move into
the northern and central Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday in the wake of a
frontal system. Above average temperatures are also forecast for the
northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley today, but temperatures will
return to near average or dip slightly below average Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly below to near average for the
rest of the central and eastern U.S. with the exception of parts of
southern Texas and central and south Florida where temperatures will
remain above average. High temperatures in these areas will be in the 90s
and lower 100s, and some daily high temperature records may be tied or
broken.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 12 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 12 2024 – 12Z Tue May 14 2024

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few
days…

…Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West and
north-central United States…

Active weather is in the forecast for the southern U.S. over the next few
days as a low pressure system sweeps across the South into the Southeast.
A potent upper low will move over the Plains today, and low pressure will
deepen in the lee of the Rockies. The stalled frontal boundary across West
Texas and New Mexico will lift northeast as a warm front, and warm, moist
Gulf air will surge into the central/southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, and conditions
will be favorable for scattered strong to severe storms from eastern Texas
through central Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight
Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for this area. Potential storm
hazards include large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. In
addition to severe storm hazards, heavy rain falling on top of saturated
soils will likely lead to flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect from eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 3/4) area for
particularly sensitive areas in east Texas and western Louisiana. The low
pressure system will push eastwards this week, and the threat of severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall/flash flooding will shift across the
northern Gulf Coast to the Southeast.

To the north, a front moving south across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region will produce showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, and
precipitation will push into the Northeast Tuesday. Precipitation chances
will also expand across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday ahead of the southern
low pressure system. In the northern Rockies and northern Plains, a
separate frontal system will be moving south across the region Monday into
Tuesday, and low elevation showers and storms and high elevation snow are
expected. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday for
the West Coast and Southwest.

Summer-like temperatures will continue today across much of the West and
north-central U.S. with well-above average highs in the 70s and 80s, and
potentially the lower 90s for some. Below average temperatures are
forecast today for the rest of the central U.S. and much of the East
Coast. Temperatures will remain above average in the West through Tuesday,
but will begin to return to near normal Monday and Tuesday for the central
and eastern United States.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.