Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024
…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes on
Monday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern
Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast and over portions of the Central
High Plains on Tuesday…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday and the Middle
Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley on Tuesday…
…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of
the Western Ohio Valley/Western Tennessee Valley…
A front extending from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Northern Plains will move to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley across the Middle Mississippi Valley and trail off into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. A wave of low pressure over the Northern
Plains will move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening,
bringing the cold front northward into the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. On Monday, the boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there
is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater, mainly over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio
Valley.
In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Furthermore, on Monday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over the Southwest and
diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies.
On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces slightly. As the
front moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.
Moreover, as the western end of the front moves across the Central High
Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Central High Plains from
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
Also, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast. Further, moisture over the
Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies, along with diurnal heating,
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a flat upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East part of the country. The developing heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Western Ohio
Valley/Western Tennessee Valley. The near-record temperatures and high
humidity suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the
East, Monday and Tuesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are forecast
for Monday and Tuesday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East
Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from
the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration.
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