NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on July 18, 2024 – Substantially Different from the Outlook Issued last Month – Posted on July 19, 2024

July 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina is challenging to predict.  We are now in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario for this summer almost to the end of the forecast period.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for August

It will be updated on the last day of July.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar. This tells us that September and October will be fairly similar to August.

The expansion of the area impacted by drought development is extensive but different than what was predicted last month.  There is also a large area of drought improvement.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through August/September/October of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for August and the three-month period August/September/October.  Small maps are provided beyond that through August/September/October of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 19, 2024

July 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 21 2024

…A break in the heat is expected for much of the eastern two-thirds of
the country but triple-digit heat will continue in the West through this
weekend…

…Scattered thunderstorms will be confined across the South and Southeast
as monsoonal thunderstorms linger across the Four Corners region…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today over the north-central
Plains…

A cool air mass arriving from central Canada is bringing a welcome relief
to the heat and humidity into the northeastern quadrant of the country
today. Temperatures as high as the 100s a couple of days ago in the
Mid-Atlantic will only recover to around 90 degrees this afternoon with
lower humidity. On the other hand, the heat across the western U.S. is
expected to persist through this weekend, with high temperatures once
again exceeding 100 degrees across much of the region. In fact, the heat
is forecast to intensify over the interior Pacific Northwest, with
readings possibly reaching 110 degrees at the hottest locations by Sunday
afternoon along with little overnight relief. Meanwhile, high
temperatures well into the 110s will be common across the Desert
Southwest. Please continue to practice heat safety in this persistent and
prolonged heat wave in the western U.S. throughout this coming weekend.

The upper-level pattern that supports the heat the West and the cooler
weather across the central to eastern U.S. will be slow to evolve through
the next few days. A front that separates the cool air from the warm and
moist air along the Gulf Coast will remain stationary across the South.
Scattered thunderstorms will be confined in the warm sector across the
South and Southeast where they will linger through the weekend.
Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will support thunderstorms across the Four
Corners region, lingering on-and-off through the weekend. Isolated to
scattered flash flooding and severe weather may result from the strongest
storms. Farther north, a weak low pressure wave will likely trigger
thunderstorms which could become strong to severe over the north-central
Plains today into tonight. Additional thunderstorms are expected to track
farther east toward Iowa and Missouri during the weekend.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

18 July 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Made Another New High, Then Plunged Downward Falling Over 550 Points Matching The Small Caps 1 Percent Dip Into The Red

July 18, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 533 points or 1.29%, (Closed at 40,665, New Historic high 41.376)
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.70%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.78%,
  • Gold $2,446 down $14.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.61,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.197 up 0.052 points,
  • USD index $104.19 up $0.44,
  • Bitcoin $63,589 down $502 or 0.78%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The July 2024 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey‘s indicator for general activity rose 13 points to 13.9, and the indexes for shipments and new orders turned positive. The employment index also turned positive, suggesting an overall increase in employment levels. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall price increases. Most future activity indicators rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. If you are a fan of surveys, then you gotta believe manufacturing activity is growing. I am a skeptic as I see retail sales flat and imports rising – these as significant headwinds to manufacturing.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year. Note that The Conference Board lately has been providing the doomiest view of the economy. An explanation by Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board:

The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months. The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.

In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 234,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 233,500 to 233,750. Although initial claims are modestly trending up, it is well within the values expected in a growing economy.

CoreLogic’s US Annual Rental Price Growth Rate for single-family rents rose by 3.2% year over year in May 2024, the highest rate of growth since April 2023. May’s annual rent growth was generally in line with numbers recorded over the decade before the pandemic.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking Back at June 2024 for the U.S.. and the World – Published July 18, 2024

July 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

 My comments if any are in boxes like this one.

 

I start with the trends of June, 2024 Temperature looking at North America and then the World both land and water. There is a graphic for just CONUS but the format is different and it is not as easy to read.

This is the temperature trend for North America. It covers a larger geographical area than just CONUS but I find it easier to read. It almost looks like the temperature has plateaued.

–

The temperature for the world, land and ocean hit a new record.

–

The temperature for the world, land only hit a new record. Notice that land temperatures increase  faster than land and ocean as water takes more energy

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 18, 2024

July 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jul 18 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 18 2024 – 12Z Sat Jul 20 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies on Thursday and over the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Southern Rockies on Friday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest into parts of California/Southwest…

A front extending from Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic and then
southwestward to the Central Gulf Coast and western Texas will move off
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Also, the southern half of
the boundary will linger near the Southeast and across the Gulf Coast
States through Friday evening. The lingering boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic through Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A Second area of heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable. Moreover, tropical moisture and upper-level impulses will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf Coast to the
Southeast.

Further, a third area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains/Southern Rockies through Friday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

In addition, moisture over the Southwest and daytime heating will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from
the late afternoon into late evening. Additionally, on Thursday,
upper-level impulses going over an upper-level ridge over the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains and moisture will produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies.

On Friday, the tropical moisture and nearby boundary will produce showers
and thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Some showers and thunderstorms will create heavy
rain over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic from Friday through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
Central/Southern Rockies from the late afternoon into late evening. An
area of showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the
Southern Rockies/High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, the upper-level energy moving out of the Northern Rockies into
the Northern/Central Plains will produce showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms with areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
Additionally, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains from Friday through
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas
of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northern Rockies to the
Southwest, spawning Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories
over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Thursday into Saturday. Moreover,
the upper-level ridge has prompted Excessive Heat Watches and Heat
Advisories over parts of California and the Southwest. The ridging will
create widespread high temperatures in the 90s to 100s followed by little
overnight relief, with lows in the upper 60s to 70s representing a 20-35
degree departure from average for many areas. The multi-day nature of this
event will create dangerous conditions, particularly for people who are
especially vulnerable to the effects of heat, such as young children,
older adults, people with chronic medical conditions, and pregnant women.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

17 July 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Marches To Another Historic High While The Small Caps Sink Deeply Into The Red

July 17, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 244 points or 0.60%, (Closed at 41,198, New Historic high 41.222)
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.77%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.39%,
  • Gold $2,464 down $4.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $2.10,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.151 down 0.016 points,
  • USD index $103.76 up $0.51,
  • Bitcoin $64,603 down $471 or 0.72%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June 2024 were 3.1% below June 2023. Privately-owned housing starts in June were 4.4% below June 2023. Privately-owned housing completions in June were 15.5% above June 2023. At first glance you would think there is something wrong with building permits and starts. However, there is a massive quantity of homes under construction – and the industry does not need to put more homes into the pipeline. The bottom line – new homes completed are growing at a good rate.

Industrial production for June 2024 rose 1.6% year-over-year with components manufacturing up 1.1% year-over-year, mining down 0.6% year-over-year, and utilities up 7.9% year-over-year. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.8 percent in June, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2023) average. This month’s manufacturing significant growth clearly moves manufacturing out of a recession – but I am not too optimistic that manufacturing growth spurt will continue long term.

The Beige Book for July 2024 states:

Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase in activity, five noted flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period. Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly. Household spending was little changed this period according to most District banks. Auto sales varied across Districts this cycle, but some Districts noted that sales were lower due in part to a cyberattack on dealerships and high interest rates. Most Districts saw soft demand for consumer and business loans. Reports on residential and commercial real estate markets varied, but most banks reported only slight changes, if any, in recent weeks. Travel and tourism grew steadily and was on par with seasonal expectations. Agricultural conditions varied in tandem with sporadic droughts across the nation. Districts also reported widely disparate trends in manufacturing activity ranging from brisk downturn to moderate growth. Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Meanwhile, tight capacity in ocean shipping led to a surge in spot rates. Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict, and inflation.

Labor Markets

On balance, employment rose at a slight pace in the most recent reporting period. Most Districts reported employment was flat or up slightly, while a few Districts reported modest employment growth. Several Districts reported declines in employment in the manufacturing sector due to slowdowns in new orders. Skilled-worker availability remained a challenge across all Districts; however, several Districts reported some improvement in labor supply conditions. Additionally, labor turnover was lower, which reduced demand to find new workers. Looking ahead, contacts in several Districts expect to be more selective on who they hire and not backfill all open positions. Wages grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. However, several Districts reported some slowing of wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers.

Prices

Prices increased at a modest pace overall, with a couple Districts noting only slight increases. While consumer spending was generally reported as showing little to no change almost every District mentioned retailers discounting items or price-sensitive consumers only purchasing essentials, trading down in quality, buying fewer items, or shopping around for the best deals. Most Districts noted that input costs were beginning to stabilize; however, Atlanta specifically noted products like copper and electrical supplies have seen a notable increase over this period.

The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s sources. This months release shows a very modest deterioration from the previous report which agrees with our economic forecast which shows little change in economic conditions.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

North American Monsoon Special Edition Drought Status Update Posted on July 17, 2024

July 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

I thought this National Integrated Drought Information System  (NIDIS) North American Monsoon (NAM) Status Update was interesting. I have presented the information which describes the NAM and what June weather has been like but I did not include the forecast graphics since there will be a new NOAA Outlook issued on Thursday so I did not see the value of presenting the forecasts from last month.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the full article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 17, 2024

July 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies on Wednesday and over the southern Mid-Atlantic
and Southern Rockies on Thursday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and New England Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast…

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains will move slowly off the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Also, on Friday, the southern
half of the boundary will linger near the Southeast and across the Gulf
Coast States. The boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and a minimal threat for hail and tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A Second area of heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a third area of heavy rain will develop near the boundary over
parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies through Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, moisture over the Southwest and daytime heating will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest late
afternoon into late evening. Additionally, on Wednesday, upper-level
impulses and tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southeast.

On Thursday, as the front moves southeastward, showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic
from Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes.

The showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains as moisture interacts with
upper-level impulses. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Wednesday into Friday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A second
area of heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat
Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic to parts of New England. On
Wednesday, the near-record temperatures and high humidity suggest Major to
Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East. Extremely dangerous
and potentially deadly heat, particularly for urban areas in the Southeast
and East Coast, are forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the
East Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief
from the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration. However, a strong cold front will bring
relief as it sweeps across most of the Eastern U.S. from Wednesday into
Thursday. This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms could be severe, especially in the Northeast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

16 July 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Seventh Session In A Row The S&P 500 Set New Historical Highs And The Dow Again Climbed To A New High, Both Closing At New Highs

July 16, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 743 points or 1.85%,  (Closed at 40,954, New Historic high 40.989)
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.20%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.64%, (Closed at 5,667, New Historic high 5,670)
  • Gold $2,472 up $42.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $1.05,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.162 up 0.065 points,
  • USD index $104.22 up $0.03,
  • Bitcoin $65,126 up $364 or 0.56%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024 were up 0.2% year-over-year but down significantly from last month’s 3.2%. If you adjust for inflation, retail sales contracted. My numbers are different from the headline view as I do not use seasonally adjusted data which shows sales of $703.6 billion in June 2024 vs $$702.2 billion in June 2023 [you do not need to seasonally adjust data if you are using year-over-year comparisons]. The major declines were in motor vehicle sales and building materials. These are two sectors which decline early in a recession. This is not good news economically.

Import prices increased from 1.4% year-over-year in May to 1.6% in June 2024. Export prices increased from 0.5% year-over-year in May to 0.7% in June 2024. Like a broken record, I keep warning readers that the underlying inflation dynamics is growing – and the end to inflationary pressures is not within eyesight.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 16, 2024

July 16, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Jul 18 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on
Tuesday and the Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains roughly eastward to the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday and the Southern Rockies, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Central
Appalachians on Wednesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Gulf
Coast…

A front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains will move slowly to the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians across the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and then into the Southern Plains by Thursday. The boundary will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

A Second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of
the Central High Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Southern High Plains roughly eastward to the Ohio
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains eastward
to the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, moisture over the Southwest and diurnal heating will produce
late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies. Furthermore, on
Tuesday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast eastward to the
Southeast.

On Wednesday, as the front moves eastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachian, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal
threat of hail and tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.

Areas along the front will produce heavy rain over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
adjacent parts of the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Central
Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will extend northwestward
into the Southern Rockies, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Rockies from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, on Wednesday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to the
Southeast. Further, moisture over the Southwest and the Central/Southern
Rockies, along with diurnal heating, will produce late afternoon into late
evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies. Furthermore, on Wednesday,
upper-level energy moving over parts of the Pacific Northwest will produce
rain with embedded thunderstorms over the area.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Tuesday into Thursday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The developing
heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Southern Plains to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Gulf Coast. A second area of Excessive
Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic
to parts of New England. The near-record temperatures and high humidity
suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East,
Tuesday and Wednesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are
forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the East Coast, and
numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.

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Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.