24Dec2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Merry Christmas Came To Wall Street As The Santa Claus Rally Begins

December 24, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 390 points or 0.91%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 266 points or 1.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 66 points or 1.10%,
  • Gold $2,633 up $5.00 or 0.19%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.83 or 1.20%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.593 down 0.006 points or 0.131%,
  • USD index $108.23 up $0.19 or 0.18%,
  • Bitcoin $98,566 up $3,814 or 4.03%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

US stocks experienced a notable rally in the final trading session before the Christmas holiday, marking the beginning of the “Santa Claus” rally. This surge was largely driven by strong performances in technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, which has seen significant gains throughout 2024. The market’s positive momentum comes after a challenging week influenced by Federal Reserve actions, which had previously caused a decline in stock prices. Investors are now reassessing interest rate expectations for the upcoming year, with most anticipating that the Fed will hold rates steady at its January and March meetings, followed by uncertainty regarding future actions. The past three trading sessions have propelled major indexes closer to their record highs, reflecting a recovery from last week’s downturn. Analysts suggest that inflation concerns will persist into 2025, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy decisions as it navigates economic pressures. Overall, Wall Street enters the holiday break with renewed optimism, buoyed by a strong performance from tech stocks and historical patterns that suggest further gains during this festive trading period.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond manufacturing survey remained in contractionary territory in December 2024. The composite manufacturing index ticked up slightly to −10 in December from −14 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments and employment were relatively flat, while new orders improved to −11 from −19 in November. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Will AI End the Utility Monopoly?
  • The Future of Home Heating: Challenges and Opportunities
  • Big Oil Looks to The Eastern Mediterranean as Replacement for Russian Gas
  • Hydrogen Fuel Cells: A Promising Green Alternative to Battery Electric Vehicles
  • Green Hydrogen Costs Set to Stay Too High For Too Long
  • Biggest banks sue the Federal Reserve over annual stress tests
  • FDA says the Zepbound shortage is over. Here’s what that means for compounding pharmacies, patients who used off-brand versions
  • American Airlines temporarily grounded U.S. flights because of technical glitch
  • Starbucks barista strike expands to more than 300 stores in 45 states
  • As older Americans downsize, over 20 million homes could become available—but they’re not where young people want to move
  • Here’s why business leaders are spending big on Trump’s inaugural committee
  • What it would cost to live like the ‘Home Alone’ family today, according to financial advisors
  • Russia Bans Crypto Mining For 6 Years In 10 Regions
  • Rand Paul’s Annual Festivus List Highlights Over One Trillion Dollars In Government Waste

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 24, 2024

December 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Dec 24 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 24 2024 – 12Z Thu Dec 26 2024

…Heavy rain and mountain snow returns to the West Coast region Wednesday
night…

…Showers and thunderstorms developing over portions of the south-central
states…

…Relatively mild conditions across the majority of the country leading
up to Christmas…

An active weather pattern is expected to continue across the West Coast
region as an energetic storm track across the eastern Pacific brings in
multiple rounds of precipitation. The next in a series of atmospheric
river events is arriving across northern California and western Oregon
late tonight and continuing into Tuesday afternoon. Although the storm
system will be progressive overall, there will be a deep surge of moisture
ahead of the cold front that will intersect the coastal terrain and the
western slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada. Rainfall totals on the
order of 2-4 inches, and locally higher, are likely across this region
through Tuesday evening. Snow levels will be initially high, but should
fall some once the front passes. The heaviest snow from this event should
affect the highest terrain of the central Sierra Nevada, with up to a foot
of accumulation possible, affecting travel through the mountain passes.
Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are currently in
effect for this event. After a brief break on Christmas Day, the next
round of moisture moves in towards the West Coast and brings another
substantial round of rain and mountain snow, along with windy conditions
as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a very intense surface
low off the coast of British Columbia.

A relatively weak low pressure system crossing the Northeast U.S. region
on Tuesday will produce light to occasionally moderate snow from the
central Appalachians to New England, increasing the odds of a White
Christmas across this region, especially when combined with existing snow
cover from recent snowfall. This system quickly exits offshore by Tuesday
evening. Farther to the south across Texas, a separate surface low
develops, and increasing southerly flow from the western Gulf of Mexico
ahead of that system will fuel the development of scattered to numerous
showers and some thunderstorms, mainly from eastern Texas northward across
much of Arkansas and into southern Missouri through Christmas morning.
Some locations may get over an inch of rainfall with this event, and thus
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is valid for these areas.

Much of the East Coast region will have a moderation trend in the cold
temperatures going into Christmas Eve, as the arctic surface high moves
offshore and milder air from the Ohio Valley advects eastward across the
region. The remainder of the country should enjoy generally above average
temperatures by late December standards, particularly across the central
and southern Plains where daytime highs could be 15-20 degrees above
average. This would equate to highs well into the 60s and 70s for much of
Texas.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

23Dec2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close In Positive Territory As Christmas Closes In

December 23, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 67 points or 0.16%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 192 points or 0.98%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 43 points or 0.73%,
  • Gold $2,627 down $18.30 or 0.69%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.04 or 0.04%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.591 up 0.067 points or 1.481%,
  • USD index $108.08 up $0.46 or 0.43%,
  • Bitcoin $94,036 down $1,119 or 1.18%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

The stock market showed a positive performance on Monday, with tech stocks leading the rally. Semiconductor stocks performed well, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) rising more than 3% and 5%, respectively. Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) also contributed to the broader market gains. Walmart (WMT) fell as much as 3% following a lawsuit by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Microsoft (MSFT) and Nike (NKE) also underperformed within the Dow. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as much as 7 basis points to 4.6%. Consumer confidence in December saw its largest month-over-month decline since November 2020. Investors are considering the path of interest rates for next year, with the Fed hinting at rates staying higher for longer. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors expect the Fed to hold rates steady next month, with a 50-50 chance of a cut or hold in March. The market is entering a shortened trading week, with the stock market closing at 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday and the Christmas holiday on Wednesday. Dow Jones Laggards Despite the positive momentum, investors remain cautious about the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s future actions regarding interest rates.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November 2024 fell from 5.9% year-over-year last month to -5.2% year-over-year. The primary reason for the decline is Boeing – but even so, absolutely no capital goods sector is doing well. Manufacturing is in a recession in the US.

My favorite coincident indicator, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.31 in November 2024 from –0.27 in October.  A recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. An expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. The bottom line is that the economy appears to be very modestly expanding, but viewing the purple line on the graph below, the economy has been slowly weakening since mid-2024.

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were 8.7% above November 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 490,000. This represents a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate. Note from the graph below that the median sales price of new homes is little changed over the last two years. This is a major reason why new home sales are still relatively strong.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 8.1 points in December to 104.7 (1985=100). Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board’s view:

The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Workers Seek Shelter As Hanford Nuclear Complex Issues Leak Alert
  • Saudi Arabia Becomes Top Buyer Of Russian Fuel Oil
  • Nickel’s Price Plunge: Indonesian Dominance Shakes Global Markets
  • Turkey’s Rise in Syria Stokes Regional Rivalry with Iran
  • Russia Loses Indian Oil Market Share to Middle East’s Exporters
  • High Electricity Taxes Are Crippling European Industry
  • Russia Expands Global Nuclear Footprint Despite Western Pushback
  • Qatar Threatens to Halt LNG Exports to Europe Over Green Regulations
  • Trump Threatens Panama Canal Takeover Over “Excessive” Fees
  • Trump’s 25% tariff could be an existential threat to Canada’s recovering auto industry
  • U.S. sues Walmart, Branch Messenger over payment accounts for delivery drivers
  • Nordstrom to go private in $6.25 billion deal with founding family, Mexican retailer
  • America’s Own Assad: Egypt Under Sisi Has 70,000 Political Prisoners
  • Elon Musk: “The Fed Is Absurdly Overstaffed”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 23, 2024

December 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Dec 23 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024 – 12Z Wed Dec 25 2024

…Heavy rain and mountain snow returns to the West Coast region Monday
night…

…Showers and thunderstorms developing over portions of the south-central
states…

…Relatively mild conditions across the majority of the country leading
up to Christmas…

An active weather pattern is expected to continue across the West Coast
region as an energetic storm track across the eastern Pacific brings in
multiple rounds of precipitation. After a brief respite Monday, the next
atmospheric river event arrives across northern California and western
Oregon late Monday night and into Tuesday. Although the storm system will
be progressive overall, there will be a deep surge of moisture ahead of
the cold front that will intersect the coastal terrain and the western
slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada. Rainfall totals on the order of 2-4
inches, and locally higher, are likely across this region through Tuesday
evening. Snow levels will be initially high, but should fall some once
the front passes. The heaviest snow from this event should affect the
highest terrain of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, with up to a
foot of accumulation possible.

A low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region on Monday will
produce a corridor of mixed wintry precipitation from southern Minnesota
to southern Lower Michigan, and mainly light to moderate snow to the north
across northern Wisconsin and into northern Michigan. Winter weather
advisories are currently in effect for those areas. This low reaches the
Northeast U.S. Christmas Eve, with light snow mainly for interior
portions. Farther to the south across Texas, a separate surface low
develops, and increasing southerly flow from the western Gulf of Mexico
ahead of that system will fuel the development of scattered to numerous
showers and some thunderstorms from eastern Texas northward across much of
Arkansas and into southern Missouri through Tuesday.

Much of the East Coast region will have a very cold start to the holiday
week on Monday, with an arctic surface high slowly moving east across the
region. The coldest morning of the season thus far is expected for most
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states, followed by another chilly day
on Monday, albeit slightly milder compared to what was observed on Sunday.
A further moderation trend is expected going into Christmas Eve as the
surface high moves offshore and milder air from the Ohio Valley advects
eastward across the region. The remainder of the country should enjoy
generally above average temperatures by late December standards,
particularly across the central and southern Plains where daytime highs
could be 15-20 degrees above average. This would equate to highs well
into the 60s and 70s for much of Texas.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Book review: Kaput: The End of the German Miracle

December 22, 2024Posted ineconomy, opinionNo Comments

According to former Financial Times’ journalist, Wolfgang Münchau, Germany’s economy would be Kaput.

How could that be?  After all, Germany has long been a world champion in manufacturing, especially for motor vehicles, chemicals, and machine equipment, and Europe’s leading economy.


“Speicherstadt” District in Hamburg, Germany.
Photo by Claudio Testa on Unsplash

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 22, 2024

December 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 22 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024 – 12Z Tue Dec 24 2024

…Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall for the Pacific Northwest and
northern California as systems move in from the North Pacific…

…Record warmth possible across parts of the Southwest on Sunday…

…More winter weather from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes
and the Northeast from Sunday into Tuesday morning…

The general flow pattern becomes more zonal with time, with systems of
Pacific origin moving eastward and reforming downstream across the
Plains/Midwest. The consequence of this pattern will be rainfall/elevation
snows near the Pacific Northwest & northern California, decreasing warmth
across the West, and by Monday decreasing cold across portions of the
East. Starting out West, weakening fronts move eastward out of the
Pacific into the Great Basin, pushing batches of rainfall into and through
the Pacific Northwest, northern Intermountain West, and northern
California, with snowfall expected at higher elevations through Tuesday
morning. The heaviest precipitation is expected in and near northern
California Monday night and Tuesday, which carries some risk of excessive
rainfall/flash flooding, particularly in burn scars. Some periods of high
winds are expected on Sunday — wind advisories are in effect for areas of
northern California and southern Oregon. Across the Southwest, high
temperatures should rise 60s to 70s on Sunday, threatening daily record
high temperatures in and near southern Arizona and southern California.
As one of the Pacific disturbances aloft moves east of the Rockies, a low
pressure system develops across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday
into early Monday, which is expected to bring freezing rain to portions of
northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota — winter weather advisories
are in effect — then snowfall which increases in coverage and intensity
with time from North Dakota eastward through Michigan into the Northeast.
This system should weaken as it moves through the Northeast.

A seasonably strong and cold high pressure system migrates through the
East into the Western Atlantic on Sunday and Monday, continuing the cold
in the eastern United States. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect
across portions of eastern Upstate New York and northeast Pennsylvania,
while freeze warnings and frost advisories are out for portions of
southeast Georgia and North Florida for Sunday morning. As the flow over
the Great Lakes becomes more anticyclonic with time, Lake Effect Snows
should continue to fade on Sunday. For some areas of the East, Sunday
should be the coldest day thus far this winter. Once the high moves
offshore on Monday, temperatures should begin to moderate closer to late
December averages.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Seasonal Peak Snow Predictability Derived from Early-Season Snow in North America – Published on December 21, 2024.

December 21, 2024Posted inClimate2 Comments

This is an article about the ability to predict peak snow and snow water content (SWE) accumulation early in the season. This can be helpful to water planners. I came across this in a webinar that had four excellent presentations and one was related to this article.  Here is the link to the recording of that presentation. You may want to watch and listen to the recording of that webinar. The overall conclusion is that predictability from early-season snowfall is greatest where it is coldest which usually means high latitudes. That is not surprising but some may find the methodology of quantifying the degree of predictability to be interesting. A lot of detail is provided for the U.S. West but Figure 2 shows it is true across North America.

Abstract

SNOwpack TELemetry observations and model simulations both demonstrate that the fractional contribution of October through December (early season) snowfall to peak snow accumulation in North America increases with latitude due to both colder temperatures and Pacific storm tracks focusing further north earlier in the season. Early season snowfall also makes up greater than 60 percent of peak accumulation in interior low-precipitation locations leeward of mountains, particularly those that are subject to strong, warm winds and midwinter snow loss. Early season snow observations show promise in predicting peak snow water equivalent in locations where large-scale ocean-atmosphere patterns similarly influence fall and winter conditions, and in northern maritime locations where winter temperatures are warm enough that rain on snow and midwinter melt occur. Because climate change is likely to increase the extent of midwinter melt, the latter relationship is expected to become important over more locations in the future.

Key Points

  • Fall snow contributes more to peak snow at colder and more northerly locations
  • Fall snow can be used to predict peak snow where large scale ocean and atmosphere patterns influence annual snowfall variations
  • Fall snow regulates cold content, which in warm regions may tip a snowpack between lasting or ablating midwinter, influencing peak snow

Plain Language Summary

Across North America, snow accumulates from October until the following spring. Early season snow, defined as the snow that accumulates by the end of December, is a greater fraction of total snow accumulation at higher latitudes and at colder locations. Early season snow accumulation can be used to predict peak snow accumulation. Predictions are more skillful at locations where fall precipitation is correlated with winter precipitation because more snow at the end of December indicates that weather patterns are favorable for greater than average snowfall to continue. Predictions also have skill at warmer northern locations where more snow on the ground early season increases the likelihood that mixed rain-snow events add water to the snowpack rather than melting the snow. Predictions at warm southern locations do not have skill because winter and spring snowfall is highly variable, and frequently little to no snow has accumulated by the end of December.

Some may need to click  on “Read  Here”  to access the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 21, 2024

December 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 21 2024 – 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024

…Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall near the Pacific Northwest and
northern California…

…Record warmth possible across parts of the West Saturday and Sunday…

The general flow pattern favors an upper level trough across the eastern
Pacific ocean, ridging aloft in the West, and troughing aloft in the
eastern United States. The consequence of this pattern will be some
rainfall along the West Coast, warmth across the Intermountain West, and
cold across portions of the East. Starting out West, skirmishes of rain
along the West Coast are expected Saturday as low pressure systems move
northward offshore the West Coast. On Saturday and Sunday, weakening
fronts move eastward, pushing a couple batches of rainfall into the
through the Pacific Northwest, northern Intermountain West, and northern
California, with snowfall expected at higher elevations. Some periods of
high winds are expected — high wind warnings are in effect for areas of
northern California and southern Oregon. High temperatures across
northern portions of the West will rise into the 40s and 50s, high enough
to threaten record high temperatures on Saturday. Across the Southwest,
high temperatures should rise into the 70s to 80s Saturday and 60s to 70s
on Sunday, threatening daily record high temperatures in and near southern
Arizona and southern California.

Mid-continent, a seasonably strong and cold high pressure system migrates
from the Great Lakes into the East, bringing below average temperatures
near and to its east. For some areas of the East, it should be the
coldest temperatures thus far this winter. Freeze Watches and Cold
Advisories have been posted for sections of northern Florida and southeast
Georgia for the incoming cold. When combined with cyclonic flow around a
low moving offshore the East Coast, lake effect snowfall is expected near
the Great Lakes, portions of the Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic
States, and New England which slowly fades Saturday and Sunday. Winter
weather advisories are in effect in patches across the eastern Great
Lakes, Central/Southern Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic States, and
coastal New England with a very localized Winter Storm Warning is in place
for portions of Downeast Maine through midday Saturday to help advise on
the moderate to heavy snowfall expected. A low pressure system developing
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday into early Monday is
expected to lead to snowfall which increases in coverage and intensity
with time from North Dakota eastward into Michigan.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

20 DEC 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Half Of Wednesday Rout Clawed Back, Indexes Finally Close Moderately Higher In The Green

December 20, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 499 points or 1.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 200 points or 1.03%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 64 points or 1.09%,
  • Gold $2,644 up $35.20 or 1.364%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.14 or 0.2303%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.528 down 0.042 points or 0.919%,
  • USD index $107.77 down $0.64 or 0.59%,
  • Bitcoin $96,359 down $771 or 0.08%, (24 Hours),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 589 Canada -25 to 166
    U.S. Rig Count is unchanged from last week at 589 with oil rigs up 1 to 483, gas rigs down 1 to 102 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Market Summary

U.S. stocks experienced a significant rebound on Friday, driven by inflation data showing a deceleration in price increases for November 2025. Despite the Friday recovery, the major indices still finished the week lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.8% and both the Dow and S&P 500 losing around 2%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed a slowdown in price increases for November [We have a different view – see Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher]. Earlier in the week, the Fed signaled fewer anticipated rate cuts for 2025, which triggered a market sell-off. Potential government shutdown and Trump’s tariff threats on Europe added market pressure. All 11 S&P 500 sectors were in positive territory on Friday. Technology and semiconductor stocks saw notable gains.

 

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was up 2.9% year-over-year (down from last month’s 3.0%) while Real Disposable Personal Income (DPI) was up 2.6% year-over-year (down from last month’s 2.9%). Inflation (as measured by the PCE price index) rose from 2.3% to 2.4% year-over-year (the index less food and energy was little changed at 2.8%). These price indices are the favored measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve. And as I have been saying all along – inflation is FAR from being under control.

The December 2024 Livingston Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, provides updated economic forecasts from 24 economists regarding key macroeconomic indicators for the U.S. economy through 2026. Real GDP Growth is predicted to an annualized growth of 2.5% for the second half of 2024, with a decrease to 1.9% for both the first and second halves of 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in December 2024 to 4.3% by June and remain at that level through December 2025, reflecting upward revisions from previous estimates. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected at an annual average of 2.9% for 2024 and 2.3% for 2025, with expectations to hold steady at 2.3% in 2026. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is anticipated to be 1.0% in 2024, rising to 1.1% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Short-term interest rates are expected to decline, with the three-month Treasury bill rate projected at 4.35% by the end of December 2024, decreasing to 3.40% by December 2025. The ten-year Treasury bond rate is also forecasted to fall from 4.30% in December 2024 to 4.00% by December 2025. As measured by the S&P 500 index, Stock Market Outlook prices are projected to increase significantly, reaching approximately 6050.0 at the end of December 2024 and rising to about 6920.9 by the end of 2026. Over the next decade, real GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.05%, while CPI inflation is projected at 2.28%, both slightly revised upwards from previous forecasts. This survey reflects a cautious optimism among economists regarding steady growth but acknowledges potential challenges with rising unemployment and inflationary pressures in the coming years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Data Centers Are Eating the Grid Alive
  • No Change to U.S. Drilling Activity Heading Into Holiday Week
  • EU Ready to Discuss Closer Energy Ties with US under Trump
  • Oil Prices Under Pressure as Weak Demand and Economic Uncertainty Persist
  • Israel Strikes Multiple Targets in Yemen
  • Bearish Sentiment Takes Hold in Oil Markets
  • Dow closes nearly 500 points higher on cooler inflation data, but index posts third straight losing week: Live updates
  • CFPB sues JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo over Zelle payment fraud
  • Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected
  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway scoops up Occidental and other stocks during sell-off
  • Bitcoin falls to $96,000 as volatility hits crypto assets: CNBC Crypto World
  • As Congress works to avoid a shutdown, here’s what’s next for a bill to increase Social Security benefits for public pensioners
  • Treasury yields end with second week of advances, with interest rates set to stay elevated in 2025
  • FedEx’s freight-unit spinoff offers ‘early Christmas’ to Wall Street

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.