EconCurrents

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EST
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024

…Heavy snow expected to impact portions of Colorado and New Mexico while
heavy rain, severe weather, as well as increasingly windy conditions sweep
across the Southern Plains through the next couple of days…

…Heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to gradually diminish
by this evening…

…Hurricane Rafael is forecast to track more westward away from the
Florida Keys and into the Gulf Mexico through the next couple of days…

…Record warmth continues from the Mid-Atlantic down into the Southeast
and along the Gulf Coast…

Tropical moisture interacting with a disturbance under a broad channel of
southerly flow aloft has continued to produce heavy rainfall across the
Southeast this morning. The main dynamics associated with the disturbance
is forecast to track northeastward, allowing the heavy rain threat to
diminish by this evening as the disturbance tracks off the Carolina
coasts. WPC currently maintains a slight risk of heavy rain from eastern
Georgia into portions of South Carolina for today.

Farther south, tropical-storm-force winds and squally downpours associated
with rainbands from Hurricane Rafael were impacting the western portion of
the Florida Keys this morning. Rafael is forecast to track more toward
the west, allowing the tropical storm conditions over the Florida Keys to
gradually subside through the remainder of today.

Meanwhile, a winter storm continues to get organized across portions of
the central and southern Rockies and into the nearby High Plains. A
vigorous upper-level trough continues to plunge south and usher polar air
into the region while gradually develops a low pressure system over the
southern High Plains. The compact and vigorous nature of the upper low
will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of Central/Southern
Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within Colorado and New
Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the upper low deepens
more than expected, the associated snow could linger in the same area
farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow to fall across
the Front Range of Colorado, while up to a few feet of wet snow is
possible farther south across the higher elevations near the Colorado-New
Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm Watches and
Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded across
much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.

In addition to the heavy snow, this low pressure system will bring heavy
rain and severe weather farther east across the Southern Plains by later
today. The highest threat of heavy rain is forecast to be expanding
across western Texas toward southwestern Oklahoma tonight into Friday
morning when the low pressure system develops and intensifies over western
Texas as it tracks northward. A band of severe thunderstorms can also be
expected to sweep across western Texas ahead of a potent cold front. Much
of the central to southern High Plains will come under an increasing
threat of high winds as well especially by this evening into Friday
morning when the low pressure system deepens most rapidly. This could
result in gale force winds to accompany heavy snow on Friday across the
central High Plains in Colorado, while wind-swept rain impacts Oklahoma
and Kansas, and severe thundertorms sweep east across Texas ahead of the
potent cold front. By Saturday morning, much of the rain should be
pushing east into the Arklatex region and into the Central Plains ahead of
the low pressure system. This will allow the Southern Plains to dry out.
However, heavy snow could linger across central Colorado into Saturday
morning depending on the strength of the low pressure system.

Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the low
pressure system and a cold front; with 30s and 40s across the valleys and
dipping into the single digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make
sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will
increase the risk for wildfires in the Southwest over the next few days.
Critical wildfire conditions persist across California where Red flag
warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior California.
The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for
southern California with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita
which will carry over for today. In contrast, record warm minimum
temperatures are forecast to continue from the Mid-Atlantic down into
theSoutheast and along the Gulf Coast through the next couple of nights.
High temperatures are not quite reaching record levels but will remain
well above normal for these areas for early November.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 06 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024

…Heavy rain threat emerging over the interior Southeast late today into
Thursday as tropical moisture associated with weak low over southeastern
Gulf of Mexico lifts northward...

…Increasing threat for heavy snow to impact the central to southern
Rockies and nearby High Plains through the next couple of days…

…Watching the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Hurricane Rafael
forecast to pass not far too to the west tonight…

…Record warmth expected for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
today…

As heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley gradually diminishes
today, tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure circulation
centered over southeastern Gulf of Mexico is beginning to lift north
toward the Florida Panhandle under a broad channel of southerly flow
aloft. This weak low is a system somewhat separate from Hurricane Rafael
farther south in the Caribbean Sea. The tropical moisture associated with
the weak low is forecast to be drawn northward today, leading to heavy
rainfall tonight into Thursday morning across the interior section of the
Southeast. WPC currently places a moderate risk of heavy rain across
central Georgia into portions of South Carolina for this upcoming heavy
rain event. Meanwhile, moderate to locally heavy rain associated with a
cold front early this morning along the Mississippi and Ohio Valley early
this morning is forecast to become more scattered in nature as today
progresses.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea while heading northwest toward western Cuba. The National
Hurricane Center calls for Rafael to be a category-2 hurricane as it
passes not too far to the west of Key West tonight into Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western portion of the Florida
Keys where increasing winds with passing squally downpours associated with
rainbands from Rafael can be expected by tonight.

As Rafael threatens the Florida Keys, a winter storm is brewing across the
southern Rockies. A vigorous upper-level trough is plunging south toward
the Four Corners early this morning, ushering a surge of polar air into
the region while developing an area of snow over the central Rockies into
the central High Plains. The snow is expected to expand in coverage and
pickup intensity as today progresses. The compact and vigorous nature of
this upper low will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of
central to southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within
Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the
upper low deepens more than expected, the associated snow could linger in
the same area farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow
to fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet snow
is possible farther south across the higher elevations near the
Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm
Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.

As arctic air plunges into the region temperatures will fall to the 30s
and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits in the cool spots
for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with
lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over the next few
days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior
California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions
highlighted for southern California today with an extreme area in the
vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday. In
contrast, high temperatures are forecast to challenge or break records
today across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England as well as
scattered locations in the South ahead of the weakening cold front moving
across the Mississippi Valley.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 05 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats shifting east toward the
Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley today…

…Mountain snow and wind will spread south from the northern Rockies
today, reaching into much of the central Rockies and Four Corners on
Wednesday into Thursday morning…

…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become a hurricane as it
enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will spread across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…

The weather system that has sustained the heavy rain and severe weather
across the south-central U.S. for the past couple of days is beginning to
advance farther east. This is in response to a low pressure system
consolidating along the trailing front as supported by the final pieces of
energy of the deep upper trough reaching into the southern Plains. The
threats of heavy rain and severe weather today are shifting farther east
toward the Mississippi Valley this morning ahead of the front. As the low
pressure center tracks farther north across the upper Midwest today and
then into the Great Lakes by tonight, the heavy rain threat across the
Mississippi Valley will gradually lessen. The front is forecast to become
nearly stationary across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining in the vicinity into
Thursday morning.

Focus will then shift into the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Rafael is
forecast to track across western Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane. The
Florida Keys will likely be closest to the path of Rafael with increasing
winds amid passing squally downpours associated with rainbands from Rafael
by later on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Hurricane for the latest advisories on Rafael. Some moderate to
heavy rainfall well ahead of Rafael could move into the Southeast by
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning.

Weather out West is getting active again as another strong upper level
trough quickly digs across. A cold front and attendant low pressure system
have already traversed the Pacific Northwest. In addition to winter
weather across the mountains that has prompted winter weather advisories
and storm warnings, strong winds accompanying the low have also prompted
high wind warnings for the interior Pacific Northwest and portions of
Montana and Wyoming. The front will dip farther south into the southern
Rockies by Wednesday and then across the central and southern Plains by
Thursday morning. A round of new snow is expected to blanket much of the
Four Corners region behind the strong front. Temperatures will plunge as
an arctic air mass invades the region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s
across the valleys and lows may approach the single digits in the cool
spots. Make sure to bundle up.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 04 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024

…More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to
the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday…

…Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the
Pacific Northwest today, across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, and then
into the central Rockies by Tuesday night…

…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen which is forecast to
reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…

The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will bring
another day of heavy rain and severe weather across the south-central
U.S., with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact eastern Oklahoma,
northwestern Arkansas, much of Missouri and into Illinois. In addition,
the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms centered around eastern Oklahoma and into
adjacent areas where damaging winds, large hail, as well as a few
tornadoes are mostly likely. More energy ejecting from the upper-level
trough currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West
will consolidate a low pressure system over the south-central Plains
today. This system is forecast to push a cold front farther eastward by
tonight, ending the heavy rain threat across Oklahoma but then shifting
the heavy rain and severe weather threats into the Arklatex region,
Mid-Mississippi Valley and across Midwest on Tuesday. As the low pressure
center tracks quickly northeastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday night,
the trailing cold front will weaken with time, leading to a lessening
threat of heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Nevertheless, moderate to locally heavy
rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to reach into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

With another piece of energy associated the upper trough beginning to exit
the Southwest into the Plains today, mountain snow over central Colorado
will slowly taper off while mountain snow over New Mexico will linger into
this evening. A rather strong low pressure system from the Pacific Ocean
will quickly spread the next round of coastal rain into the Pacific
Northwest today followed by a good dose of mountain snow farther inland
along with windy conditions. The mountain snow will then reach into the
northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low pressure
system redevelops over the northern High Plains. The greatest chances
(>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over
the northern Cascades on Monday and northern Rockies on Tuesday. Be sure
to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these
elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather
forecast. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the snow is forecast
to blanket the central Rockies into the central High Plains behind a polar
front.

Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi
River through early next week, besides rain chances throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over
the Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England
coastline, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This
will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s
and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic early this
week, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early
November climatology, the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley is expected to
experience temperatures well above average. The anomalous warmth will
eventually spread to the East Coast by Election Day as showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front continue throughout the Midwest and
Mississippi Valley.

In the mean time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing
advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC 18) in the
southwestern Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring increasing
winds with the arrival of outer rainbands especially for the Florida Keys
by Wednesday morning as the cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane
strength by then. Please refer to the NHC for the latest advisory on PTC
18.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 03 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024

…Another day of heavy rain and severe weather expected across the
central U.S. before shifting east into the Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi
Valley and Midwest by Monday night…

…Mountain snow moving across the Intermountain West and Rockies today
will begin to taper off on Monday as the next round of mountain snow and
wind quickly overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Monday…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will shift east
from the Plains today towards the Mississippi Valley by Monday with no
rain in sight along the East Coast…

The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will
continue to trigger additional rounds of heavy rain and severe weather for
the remainder of today, with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact
central to eastern Oklahoma into portions of northwestern Arkansas and
southern Missouri. More energy ejecting from the upper-level trough
currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West will
eventually consolidate a low pressure system over the central High Plains
by tonight. This low pressure system will track northeastward across the
central Plains followed by another low pressure system to develop over the
south-central Plains on Monday. This second system is forecast to
push a cold front farther eastward Monday night, ending the heavy rain
threat across Oklahoma but shifting the heavy rain and severe weather
threats into the Arklatex region, Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest by
Monday night.

The upper trough will usher colder than normal temperatures through much
of the western U.S. for the next couple of days with mountain snow passing
through the Intermountain region today, followed by the central and
southern Rockies on Monday. Meanwhile, a rather strong low pressure
system from the Pacific Ocean will quickly spread the next round of
coastal rain into the Pacific Northwest on Monday followed by a good dose
of mountain snow farther inland along with quite a bit of wind. The
mountain snow will reach into the northern Rockies Monday night into
Tuesday morning as the low pressure system redevelops over the northern
High Plains. The greatest chances (>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in
a 24-hour period is forecast over the northern Cascades on Monday. Be
sure to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout
these elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather
forecast.

Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi
River through early next week, besides rain chances entering parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over the
Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England
coastline by Monday, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western
periphery. This will support widespread above average high temperatures
into the upper 60s and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic by Monday, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When
compared to early November climatology, the Midwest is expected to
experience temperatures well above average on Monday. The anomalous
warmth will then spread across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes by
Monday night into early Tuesday as showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front reach into the Midwest.