EconCurrents

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 12 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 12 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 14 2024

…Unsettled weather with chances for scattered flash flooding and
damaging wind gusts stretches from the Intermountain West to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley…

…Dangerous heat builds across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast this
week…

…Critical Fire Weather and poor air quality remains throughout parts of
the Great Basin and Northwest…

An active August weather pattern is expected to continue through at least
midweek thanks in part to a stationary boundary stretching from the
Southeast to the central Plains and an upper-level trough moving from the
West Coast to the northern Rockies. Organized complexes of showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to ride along and just north of the stationary
front today from eastern Colorado to the Ozarks, with the main weather
hazard associated with intense rainfall rates and scattered flash
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat is then forecast to slide eastward
each day this week, centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday
and Midwest by Wednesday. These areas coincide with a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. Additionally, some of the stronger storms will
have the potential to produce isolated hail and the potential for
localized damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms will also develop throughout
parts of the Southwest, Intermountain West, and Rockies through Tuesday,
producing an isolated flash flood threat for these regions as well.

For the Southeast, the lingering frontal boundary will produce another few
days with scattered thunderstorm chances overlapping with saturated ground
conditions, particularly over the eastern Carolinas. Urban corridors and
locations with poor drainage (even more degraded than usual due to recent
heavy rain and flooding associated with T.S. Debby) will be most at risk.
Residents and visitors are advised to have multiple ways of receiving
warnings and never drive into flooded roadways.

While most of the country enjoys a break from the oppressive summer heat,
much of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast States will experience a
warming trend back to uncomfortable conditions this week. Widespread highs
into the upper 90s are forecast to stretch from the southern High Plains
to the Florida Panhandle, with triple digits possible over portions of the
Lone Star State. When combined with elevated humidity levels, heat indices
may reach up to around the 110 degree mark. Overnight temperatures will
not offer much relief as lows only dip into the upper 70s and low 80s.
This level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration as denoted by Major to Extreme HeatRisk stretching from
Oklahoma and Texas to the Gulf Coast and much of Florida by Wednesday.

Gusty winds combined with dry terrain are forecast to create Critical Fire
Weather across parts of northwest Nevada today. Meanwhile, ongoing
wildfires will also continue to pump additional smoke into the atmosphere
and produce poor air quality for much of the region.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 11 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 11 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 13 2024

…Scattered thunderstorms capable of containing locally heavy rainfall
are forecast across much of the Southwest, Intermountain West, and
Plains…

…Lingering flash flood potential exists across the coastal Carolinas
over the next few days…

…Sultry summer heat returns to much of the Southern Plains and central
Gulf Coast States this week…

The weather pattern through early this week will feature daily chances for
thunderstorms from the Southwest and Intermountain West into the Plains,
as well as Florida and coastal sections of the Southeast. An upper level
low in southeast Canada will also provide scattered precipitation chances
to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Anomalous atmospheric moisture content
throughout the Southwest and Great Basin when combined with shortwaves
riding overtop of an upper ridge set up over the region will provide
enough coverage of thunderstorms to support the potential for scattered
flash flooding today from northwest Arizona to central Utah. Complex
terrain and the sensitive slot canyon region of Utah increase the threat
for flooding impacts. Additional chances for heavy rain extend to the
southern California ranges and the remainder of the Southwest and Four
Corners region over the next few days. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft and
nearby frontal boundaries will help aid thunderstorm development across
the Great Plains. A few rounds of organized convection north of a warm
front forecast to stretch from Oklahoma to the lower Mississippi Valley
could lead to instances of flash flooding through tonight across parts of
eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northwest
Arkansas. Localized downpours associated with thunderstorm activity are
also possible throughout the remainder of the central and northern Plains
today, with isolated severe storms a possibility for the central High
Plains into the Black Hills region. This unsettled weather pattern is
anticipated to remain in place early this week across the central United
States.

A lingering frontal boundary draped across the Southeast will provide a
focus for additional thunderstorm activity over the next few days,
overlapping with saturated ground conditions from last week’s widespread
heavy rainfall. As a result, localized downpours could result in
additional flash flooding throughout the coastal Carolinas. Residents and
visitors are reminded to avoid driving through flooded roadways and to not
swim or play in floodwater.

For much of the Nation, summer heat will be on hold to start the week as a
cooler weather pattern takes shape compared to previous weeks. However,
building heat will be felt throughout the southern Plains and Deep South
as highs soar back into the upper 90s and triple digits by Monday. When
combined with elevated humidity levels, afternoons will feel closer to
heat index values of 110 degrees in the lower Mississippi Valley and
immediate Gulf Coast. It is also worth noting that overnight temperatures
will not offer much relief as lows only dip into the upper 70s and low
80s. This level of heat could affect anyone without effective cooling
and/or hydration, so it is important to follow proper heat safety tips and
check on vulnerable individuals.

Elsewhere, poor air quality due to ongoing wildfires throughout the
northern Great Basin is expected to continue. Upper level winds are
forecast to carry smoke eastward over parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Mid-Atlantic, leading to hazy skies for some locations.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024 – 12Z Mon Aug 12 2024

…Unsettled weather extends from the Southwest to the central U.S. over
the next few days, with chances for scattered flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms…

…Lingering heavy rain potential exists across the eastern Carolinas this
weekend…

…Above average temperatures continue across the West today before
confining to the southern Plains and Gulf Coast by early next week…

The upper level pattern and anomalous atmospheric moisture content in
place across the Southwest and Plains will remain conducive for more
active weather through this weekend. Starting with the Southwest, Four
Corners, and southern/central Rockies, the main threat associated with
developing thunderstorms will be related to intense rainfall rates and
flash flooding. Uncertainty remains on where exactly the heaviest rainfall
will occur, but sensitive terrain and burn scars are most likely to see
impacts. This flash flooding threat also extends westward to the southern
California ranges through Sunday, where slow-moving thunderstorms over
complex terrain could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns. Shifting
to the central and southern Plains, convection is expected to become more
organized as a lingering frontal boundary provides a focus for heavy
rainfall potential from Oklahoma to southern Missouri. After an initial
round of storms over central Oklahoma tonight, another round of possibly
slow-moving convection is expected Sunday night from southeast KS and
northeast OK to the western Ozarks. Several inches of rainfall are
possible within a short period of time, which could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding. Scattered thunderstorms are also forecast to
extend throughout much of the central and northern Plains, but quick
forward motions and lesser coverage should keep the flash flooding threat
localized. In addition to heavy rainfall, these storms could contain
isolated hail and damaging wind gusts.

After recently getting doused by T.S. Debby with several days of tropical
downpours, the eastern Carolinas may see additional bouts of heavy
rainfall over the next few days as sufficient atmospheric moisture content
remain in place along a stalled frontal boundary. This stationary front
combined with diurnal sea breeze activity could spark numerous slow-moving
thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates. Given most
soils remain overly saturated across the Carolinas, the flash flooding
threat will remain slightly elevated. Residents and visitors are advised
to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive through
flooded roadways.

Temperatures throughout the Lower 48 into the beginning of next week will
feature widespread below average highs from the Plains to the Northeast
underneath broad high pressure, with forecast high temperatures in the 70s
and low 80s. Summer heat will remain confined to the Southern Tier,
including the Southwest today before a cooling trend commences. Meanwhile,
oppressive heat and humidity will continue and rebuild across the southern
Plains and Gulf Coast by Sunday and Monday as highs soar into the upper
90s and triple digits. This equates to around 10 degrees above the
climatological mean for mid-August, but forecast highs at the moment don’t
appear to threaten any daily records.

Elsewhere, continued dry conditions and ongoing wildfires will continue to
produce elevated fire weather conditions and poor air quality across parts
of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Little changes in the overall
weather pattern should maintain this environment.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 09 2024 – 12Z Sun Aug 11 2024

…Dangerous flooding and severe weather continue as Debby accelerates
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today…

…Below average temperatures persist across the Northern to Central
Plains, Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley…

…Above average temperatures continue across the West into the South, but
with less record highs compared to previous days…

…Elevated fire weather conditions and poor air quality continue across
Great Basin…

After a slow trek through the Carolinas over the last 24 hours, Debby is
simultaneously weakening and accelerating northeastward along the spine of
the Blue Ridge. Unfortunately, even in Debby’s weakened state, dangerous
flash flooding and severe weather will continue through tomorrow across
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, Interior Northeast, and New
England. Across the Carolinas, additional heavy rainfall is expected to
batter the region today, which will exacerbate ongoing catastrophic and
considerable flash flooding as storm total rainfall approaches 15-25
inches in spots. Closer to Debby’s immediate track, 3 to 7 inches of
rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states will produce
considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts through tomorrow
morning. The same cells responsible for this dangerous and prolific
rainfall are also capable of producing a few tornadoes. In the short term
this morning, a few tornadoes remain possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland), although the risk
will shift into the Northeast (New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and
southeast New York) later today.

The northeast acceleration of Debby is in response to the large scale
closed low associated with a strong cold front stretching from the Great
Lakes, southwestward through the Plains. Below average temperatures in
the wake of this strong front already encompass the Northern to Central
Plains, Upper to Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, which will
plunge southward into portions of the Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and
Tennessee Valley today and tomorrow. The forecast remains on track for a
few record low maximum temperatures today across portions of the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and over northern Minnesota with
forecast high temperatures nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.

In contrast, above average temperatures will continue over the next few
days across much of the West into Texas, the South, and Gulf Coast as the
front stalls out to the north. A few record highs still possible across
portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days,
although the number of overall record highs across the country continue to
decrease from previous days. Even with less record high potential, the
current heat has led to a swath of Heat Advisories across portions of
southeast Texas and eastward along the Gulf coast.

In addition to the heat across portions of the Northwest and West, the dry
conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds will maintain a fire
weather threat tomorrow over northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Smoke
from current fires will also continue to produce poor air quality across
the Pacific Northwest in general.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024

...Debby is forecast to spread excessive rainfall, strong winds and
thunderstorms up through much of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and
Northeast through Saturday morning...

...Excessive Heat concerns continue across the Deep South while cooler air
settles over the Central U.S. through the end of the week...

...Monsoonal storms persist over parts of the Southwest, Four Corners and
High Plains...

Tropical Storm Debby is likely to weaken as it moves from the South
Carolina coast and into the Carolina Piedmont tonight before weakening
into a Tropical Depression sometime on Friday while it moves up into the
Central Appalachians of Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Debby is
expected to produce an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to
maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. There's a High Risk (at
least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding from coastal
North Carolina, into the Piedmont and up through the Blue
Ridge/Appalachians of Virginia. Considerable flooding is expected across
portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7
inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This
rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with river flooding possible. From portions of Maryland north
through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to
6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.
There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over portions
of north-central Virginia up through central Pennsylvania/New York for
Friday as Debby moves up the spine of the Appalachians. Things rain, wind
and thunderstorms should come to an end on Saturday when Debby gets swept
up into a powerful upper low propagating across southern Canada.

Elsewhere, a strong cold front associated with the potent upper low in
Canada will drag an anomalously cool airmass down into the mid-section of
the country. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley will represent
a 15-25 degree negative anomaly for those areas, where some records may be
tied or broken. Strong southerly flow beneath a building mid-level ridge
will support the continuation of a heat wave from Texas into the central
Gulf Coast. Heat Advisories and isolated Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for those areas. Conditions should improve a bit this weekend
before worsening again next week.

Monsoonal storms will continue over much of the Southwest, Four Corners
and High Plains over the next few days. Diurnal convection along a stalled
out surface front will promote intense afternoon/evening storms capable of
producing heavy rainfall. A pair of Slight Risks (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall (one today and one on Friday) are in effect across
portions of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Wildfires in the Northwest
will contribute to poor air quality over much of Oregon and western
Washington State. Heat Advisories are also in effect for western
Washington.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.