Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jun 18 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 18 2024 – 12Z Thu Jun 20 2024

…Significant heavy rain/flash flooding threat with gusty winds well
ahead of Potential T.C. One expected to impact southern Texas on
Wednesday...

…More rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected for the
northern Plains and upper Midwest today before shifting south into the
central Plains on Wednesday…

…A heat wave will persist over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the
Northeast through midweek…

…Late-season wet snow continues across the high-elevations of the
northern Rockies today before tapering off early on Wednesday…

An active weather pattern continues across the U.S. mainland. This
weather pattern that features snow, heat, heavy rain, severe
thunderstorms, strong winds, and fire weather is now bringing Potential
Tropical Cyclone One in the midst. A low pressure system currently
intensifying along a frontal boundary is fostering another round of heavy
rain and severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains into the upper
Midwest early this morning. The potent upper trough and the associated
dome of cold air have continued to result in a round of late-season wet
snow across the higher-elevations of the northern Rockies together with
rather strong wind gusts. With less potent jet stream energy behind this
system, the low pressure system will quickly eject into southern Canada by
this evening, bringing the inclement weather across the northern Plains to
an end by Wednesday morning. However, a sharp front trailing south and
southwest from the low center will likely trigger an axis of heavy rain
and severe thunderstorms from the central Plains to the upper Midwest by
tonight into Wednesday morning. From Wednesday into Thursday morning, the
rain/storms should gradually become more scattered in nature across the
central Plains as a cool high pressure system passes to the north. This
high pressure system will also push the widely scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms farther east into the lower Great Lakes and
interior New England through Thursday morning.

In stark contrast to the cool, windy, rainy and even snowy weather in the
West, a heat wave will settle and persist across the Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley and the Northeast through the next few days. Forecast highs today
and Wednesday will reach into the mid- to upper 90s, even the century mark
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon at the hottest locations in interior
northern New England. Widespread, numerous record-tying/breaking high
temperatures are possible. Additionally, morning lows will remain in
about the mid-70s, at record-tying/breaking levels, providing little
relief from the heat overnight. The early arrival of this magnitude of
heat, the duration, abundant sunshine, and lack of relief overnight will
increase the danger of this heatwave beyond what the exact temperature
values would suggest. This is especially true for those without adequate
air conditioning, which becomes more of a concern for locations further
north that are not as accustomed to periods of persistent heat.

Another big weather story over the next couple of days will be in the Gulf
of Mexico where the National Hurricane Center has already initiated
advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. An elongated upper trough
digging into the southern Plains and northeastern Mexico has already drawn
a plume of tropical moisture northward into the central Gulf Coast region.
This upper trough will be instrumental in drawing the tropical moisture
well north of the center of PTC One into southern Texas mainly on
Wednesday as PTC One tracks west toward northern Mexico. An axis of very
heavy rain may develop just inland of the Texas coastline behind a coastal
front with dynamic support from the elongated upper trough. This pattern
could result in locally heavy rainfall in excess of 10 inches near or just
inland of the lower to middle Texas coast which would result in
significant flash flooding. The heavy rain is forecast to push farther
inland across the Rio Grande Valley early on Thursday. In addition to the
heavy rainfall, some coastal flooding along with tropical-storm-force
winds can be expected up the Texas coast on Wednesday. See the latest
advisory from the National Hurricane Center for additional detailed
updates. Meanwhile, fire danger across the Four Corners region should
gradually ease over the next few days with the arrival of slightly cooler
air followed by the arrival of moisture from the northern edge of
Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jun 17 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024 – 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible today across the
north-central Plains, shifting north into the northern Plains and northern
Minnesota late tonight into Tuesday…

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will shift farther south from the
central Plains to the upper Midwest Tuesday night to Wednesday morning…

…A heat wave will expand from the central Plains across the Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley and the Northeast today and remain across the Northeast
through midweek…

…Heavy rain threat emerging along the central Gulf Coast today,
following by an increasing heavy rain threat toward the Texas Gulf Coast
later Tuesday and especially Wednesday…

…Late-season wet snow will persist across the high-elevations of the
northern Rockies for the next couple of days...

A very active weather pattern will continue for the next couple of days
with additional cold air intrusion and jet stream energy traversing the
northwestern U.S. The battle zone will continue to be over the
north-central U.S. where a cluster of thunderstorms containing severe
weather and heavy rain is expanding across the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system is forecast to develop over the central
High Plains and intensify as it heads toward and reaches the upper Midwest
by Tuesday morning. The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will lift
farther north into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest on Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, while the low pressure center will rapidly eject into
southern Canada, a sharp front trailing south and southwest from the low
will likely trigger an axis of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from
the central Plains to the upper Midwest from Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

The cold air intrusion and jet stream energy across the northwestern U.S.
will also bring a round of late-season wet snow across the high-elevations
of the northern Rockies through the next couple of days where Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. In addition, this
energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind across the Great
Basin and the northern Rockies today, reaching into the central Rockies
and northern Plains by Tuesday morning behind a sharp cold front.

In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, rainy and even snowy weather
across the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low
pressure system from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio
Valley. The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high
temperatures well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and
New Hampshire. By Wednesday afternoon, some locations in interior New
England could see temperatures topping the century mark, which will break
daily records at certain locations. Across the Four Corners region,
critical fire danger conditions are anticipated today under persistently
dry conditions fueled by gusty winds with the approach of the sharp front.

Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the
western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas
is beginning to head toward the central Gulf Coast region today. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are
expected to bring an increasing threat of heavy rain first along the
central Gulf Coast region during the next couple of days, with a gradual
westward shift in the heavy rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast
later on Tuesday and especially by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the National
Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a tropical cyclone
to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next few days.
It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen
especially along the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coasts through the next
couple of days as pressure is forecast to fall gradually in the Gulf of
Mexico.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 18 2024

…Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to
impact locations from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest for the
next couple of days…

…Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies Monday and
Tuesday…

…A heat wave will quickly spread from the Plains today, into the Great
Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, and into the Northeast on Tuesday…

…A plume of tropical moisture will bring an increasing threat of heavy
rain and flash flooding to the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday,
shifting toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday…

As a high pressure system brings fair weather and a fresh dose of cooler
than normal temperatures into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend,
a heat wave is emerging across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley ahead of a
complex low pressure system developing over the northern Plains. A
thunderstorm complex containing severe weather is in progress early this
morning in association with the intensifying low pressure complex. The
thunderstorms will quickly move northeast into southern Canada today but
additional jet stream energy moving across the northern Rockies will help
develop a new low pressure system over the central Plains later today.
This system will rapidly develop and expand the next round of showers and
thunderstorms across the northern Plains tonight, and heading into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours can be
expected to accompany this round of inclement over the upper Midwest after
the latest round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in the
same area early this morning diminishes and moves east into the upper
Great Lakes.

By Tuesday, yet another upper trough with an energetic jet stream will
move quickly into the Pacific Northwest. This system will usher a dose of
even colder air through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where
a round of late-season wet snow is expected to persist over the
higher-elevations of the northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday. A Winter
Storm Watch is in effect for these higher-elevations. In addition, Freeze
and Frost Warnings are in effect over portions of the interior Pacific
Northwest. This energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind
across the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Monday, reaching into
the central Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning. As the low
pressure center over the central High Plains intensifies and heads
northeast across the northern Plains, a renewed round of heavy rain and
severe thunderstorms will likely develop and impact the same general
region of upper Midwest across north-central Minnesota by Tuesday morning,
where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated.

In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, and even snowy weather across
the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low pressure
complex from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley.
The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high temperatures
well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and New
Hampshire.

Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the
western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas
will shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to head toward the
central Gulf Coast region late Sunday into Monday. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are expected to bring an
increasing threat of heavy rain first along the central Gulf Coast region
during the next couple of days, with a gradual westward shift in the heavy
rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a
tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
next few days. It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually
strengthen especially along the western Gulf Coast region by Tuesday
morning as pressure gradually falls in the Gulf of Mexico.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 15 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024

…Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain expected
to impact various locations in the northern and central U.S. through the
next couple of days…

…Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies beginning on
Monday…

…A plume of tropical moisture is forecast to reach the central Gulf
Coast on Monday…

…A heat wave will quickly spread from the northern Plains this weekend
into the Great Lakes on Monday…

As a series of fronts pushes the showers and storms off the East Coast
early this morning, an active and changeable weather pattern will
establish across the Pacific Northwest. The unseasonably cold and
blustery conditions across this region will be in stark contrast with the
heat that is forecast to quickly spread from the northern Plains this
weekend, reaching into the Great Lakes on Monday. Areas in between these
temperature extremes will be under an active storm track where low
pressure systems will develop and move through in quick succession. The
first round of showers and storms associated with a leading system is
forecast to spark thunderstorm activity from the central Plains early this
morning to the upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple rounds of heavy rain
associated with these storms could lead to areas of flash flooding between
eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, a trailing and
stronger low pressure system is forecast to intensify and move quickly
across the northern Plains tonight. This system will help produce strong
to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana into North and
South Dakota. Unseasonably cold and windy weather will continue into
Sunday and Monday across the Northwest as yet another cold upper trough
reaches the Pacific Northwest. This system will reinforce the
unseasonably cold and windy conditions across the region on Monday along
with wet snow moving into the northern Rockies, therefore prompting the
issuance of Winter Storm Watches. Meanwhile, an area of rain and
thunderstorms is expected to develop and expand across the northern Plains
toward the upper Midwest where a stationary front strengthens ahead of a
developing low pressure system over the central High Plains.

Across the Florida Peninsula, the threat of heavy rain continues to
diminish as the main tropical moisture plume is forecast to swing farther
west and head toward the central Gulf Coast during the next couple of
days. Nevertheless, some thunderstorms that manage to develop over
southern Florida could result in local flooding issues given the already
saturated soil. By Monday morning, heavy rain associated with the
tropical moisture plume could begin impacting the central Gulf Coast
region. In contrast, a refreshingly dry airmass behind a cold front
should lead to beautiful weather this Father’s Day weekend throughout the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley.

The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat
impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs
are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert
Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the
Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the
central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well
below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday,
an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern
U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains,
and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with
maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight
lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat
safety!