Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 25, 2024

August 25, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 25 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 25 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 27 2024

…Record heat relents over the Southern Plains as the heat shifts
northward into the central/northern Plains and Midwest…

…Severe storms and isolated flash flooding possible for the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest Sunday-Monday…

…Daily monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Four Corners region,
shifting eastward into the southern Rockies/High Plains...

As the cool upper trough pushes farther inland across the western U.S.,
the heatwave over portions of the Southern Plains will gradually relent
during the next couple of days. Meanwhile, deep southerly flow ahead of
the upper trough will direct the heat farther north into the central and
northern Plains today before spreading into the Midwest on Monday, then
reaching into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The area of major HeatRisk
today will expand well to the north across much of the central and
northern Plains into the upper Midwest. By Monday into Tuesday, extreme
HeatRisk is forecast to overspread the Midwest and toward lower Michigan
where maximum heat indices are forecast to reach well into the 90s to the
mid-100s in the afternoon, prompting widespread heat-related advisories
and warnings. Extra caution should be observed by those without effective
air conditioning and anyone who must be outdoors should remain adequately
hydrated.

A cold front marking the leading edge of a large dome of cool air over the
western U.S. will reach into the Northern Plains on Monday, bringing
relief to the heat into the region. However, the cold front will also
bring a period of inclement weather across the northern Plains on Monday,
followed by the possibility of severe thunderstorms by Monday night into
Tuesday toward the upper Midwest. This is in response to strong
upper-level dynamics ahead of the upper trough interacting with a low
pressure system that is forecast to form along the cold front over the
northern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center highlighted an area of
enhanced risk for severe weather across the northern Plains toward the
upper Midwest from Monday into early Tuesday, with a chance for
potentially larger hail and significant damaging winds. Some locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible. By
early Tuesday, the severe weather threat is forecast to shift east into
the Great Lakes with areas of heavy rain farther north from the upper
Midwest to the upper Great Lakes as the low pressure system passes to the
south.

Across the Southwest, daily monsoonal thunderstorm chances will continue,
initially focusing over the Four Corners region today before shifting east
to mainly across the southern Rockies for Monday and Tuesday. Deep
moisture and moderate instability will lead to some more intense
thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours along with some isolated flash
flooding especially for terrain sensitive areas such as burn scars.
Besides the rainfall, the big story across the West the next few days will
be the much below average temperatures expected behind a strong cold
front. Widespread high temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be common
across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin, and northern
California, with near record low maximum values for some locations. Lows
are dipping into the 40s and even 30s this morning for much of the
interior Pacific Northwest and Great Basin where Frost Advisories are in
effect in portions of Nevada. Some post-frontal showers and storms over
portions of the Great Basin will expand across the northern Rockies into
the northern High Plains tonight into Monday, and then across the northern
Plains later on Monday into early Tuesday. Elsewhere, some showers and
storms with moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible Monday
into Tuesday over New England when a back-door upper-level wave passes
over the region. Daily showers and thunderstorms will also be possible for
Florida and along the Gulf Coast with a lingering frontal boundary in the
region. Over the Pacific Northwest, showers associated with the next
system from the Pacific are forecast to arrive Monday night into early
Tuesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Where Does US Money Come From and Where Does It Go?

August 25, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

In the United States, money is created as credit and debt.  The US Constitution1 allows the federal government to produce money directly, but that is not how the nation has chosen to operate for most of its money.  In this post, we look at the various sources for issuing credit and debt that provide money to run the country.


From a photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash.

Impact of Drought on Hydro Power – Posted on August 24, 2024

August 24, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

A recent study found drought in the United States has led to approximately 300 million MWh in lost hydropower and $28 billion in lost revenue between 2003 and 2020.

Unraveling the hydropower vulnerability to drought in the United States

Pouya Moghaddasi
et al 2024
Environ. Res. Lett. 19 084038 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6200

Pouya Moghaddasi1,2,* , Keyhan Gavahi1,2, Hamed Moftakhari1,2 and Hamid Moradkhani1,2,*

Published 23 July 2024 • © 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 19, Number 8 Citation Pouya Moghaddasi et al 2024 Environ. Res. Lett. 19 084038 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6200

This article is OPEN ACCESS  so  I have reproduced it here in its entirety.  It is very well written so  I have not seen the need to add comments to the article but  I might highlight certain sentences.  I will provide one caution which is that the period studied is a period that was characterized by a lot of drought so it may not be fully representative of the future.

Abstract

Drought, a potent natural climatic phenomenon, significantly challenges hydropower systems, bearing adverse consequences for economies, societies, and the environment. This study delves into the profound impact of drought on hydropower generation (HG) in the United States, revealing a robust correlation between hydrologic drought and hydroelectricity generation. Our analysis of the period from 2003 to 2020 for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) indicates that drought events led to a considerable decline in hydroelectricity generation, amounting to approximately 300 million MWh, and resulting in an estimated loss of $28 billion to the sector. Moreover, our findings highlight the adverse environmental effect of drought-induced HG reductions, which are often compensated by increased reliance on natural gas usage, which led to substantial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOX), totaling 161 700 kilotons, 1199 tons, and 181 977 tons, respectively. In addition to these findings, we assess the state-level vulnerability of hydropower to drought, identifying Washington and California as the most vulnerable states, while Nevada exhibits the least vulnerability. Overall, this study enhances understanding of the multifaceted effects of drought on hydropower, which can assist in informing policies and practices related to drought management and energy production.

Some may need to click on “read more”  to access the full article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 24, 2024

August 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 24 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 24 2024 – 12Z Mon Aug 26 2024

…Monsoonal thunderstorms across the Four Corners this weekend will edge
east toward southern Rockies by early next week producing locally
excessive rainfall…

…Record heat relents over the Southern Plains as record cool
temperatures envelop California to the Great Basin…

…Critical Fire Risk and Red Flag Warnings in effect across much of the
Great Basin…

An anomalously amplified weather pattern across North America will
continue to bring sharply contrasting weather conditions across the U.S.
for the next couple of days. This weather pattern will feature a warm
upper high over the southern Plains sandwiched in between two deep and
cold upper lows/troughs on either side of the West and East Coasts. An
unstable channel of moist southwesterly flow between the ridge and the
upper low near the Pacific Northwest will continue to support monsoonal
showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Four Corners region today,
shifting only slightly east toward the southern Rockies by Monday when the
flash flooding threat dwindles further as the upper high begins to give
way to the upper low moving inland across the western U.S. Farther north
across the northern High Plains, a couple of new low pressure systems are
forecast to form one after another and move toward southern Canada through
the next couple of days, bringing gusty winds but only modest amounts of
rainfall. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe near the Canadian
border of Montana early this morning ahead of the first low pressure
system. Meanwhile, critical fire weather danger is forecast for the Great
Basin under blustery and dry conditions behind a cold front.

The large upper low dipping into the Pacific Northwest will continue to
provide very cool and damp conditions into the West Coast today. In fact,
record cool high temperatures can be found once again today across
California and into the Great Basin. The anomalous cool conditions will
penetrate farther inland and overspread much of the western U.S. by
Sunday. In contrast, the heatwave across the southern Plains is showing
signs of relenting as the cool air from the western U.S. begins to erode
the upper ridge. Nevertheless, another afternoon with triple digit high
temperatures are forecast for today over a large portions of Texas into
the central Plains behind a warm front and associated low pressure center.
With relatively little moisture to work with, the low pressure system
will produce generally light amounts of rain. However, some heavy
rainfall can be expected to associate with localized clusters of strong
thunderstorms across the Midwest this weekend.

Meanwhile, cool mornings, increasingly warm afternoons and abundant
sunshine will prevail across much of the eastern U.S. under a cool upper
trough together with a cool high pressure system at the surface. A gradual
warming trend will continue across the eastern half of the country through
the next couple of days as the high pressure system begins to slide off
the East Coast. Afternoon high temperatures will recover to the lower 90s
by Sunday afternoon for some urban locations along the East Coast.
Meanwhile, high temperatures well into the 90s will be common across the
northern and central Plains ahead of a warm front lifting across the
mid-section of the country and ahead of a cold front in advance of the
cool air over the western U.S.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

23 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: JPow Said Encouraging Words Today That Sent The Dow To Another Historic High, All Three Major Indexes Closed Sharply Higher In The Green

August 23, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 462 points or 1.14%, (Closed at 41,175, New Historic high 41.208)
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.47%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.15%,
  • Gold $2,547 up $29.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $1.88,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.803 down 0.059 points,
  • USD index $100.69 down $0.82,
  • Bitcoin $63,644 up $3,261 or 5.40%,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 585 Canada +2 to 219

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the time has come to begin cutting interest rates, reflecting confidence in the Fed’s fight against inflation. Markets reacted positively, with major stock indexes rising over 1% following Powell’s comments. Traders are pricing in a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, with debate over whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 3.8%, near its lows for the year. Real estate stocks led gains in the S&P 500, rising 3.5% for the week as the best-performing sector.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday signaled a significant shift in the central bank’s focus, laying the groundwork for upcoming interest rate cuts. Here are the key points from his address:

Labor Market Focus

Powell emphasized the cooling labor market, mentioning labor conditions 27 times in his speech, compared to 19 times in last year’s address. This shift indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee is now paying closer attention to employment trends after two years of intense focus on inflation.

Readiness for Rate Cuts

The Fed Chair explicitly stated that “the time has come” to begin cutting interest rates. This clear message suggests that the central bank is preparing for a policy pivot in the near future.

Economic Outlook

Despite recent data revisions showing weaker job growth earlier in the year, Powell’s speech did not express serious concerns about an imminent recession or significant job losses. Instead, the focus seems to be on the diminishing threat of elevated wage growth keeping inflation too high.

Inflation Progress

Powell noted that inflation has significantly decreased from its peak, with the consumer price index declining from 9% in June 2022 to below 3% in July 2024. He highlighted the importance of anchored inflation expectations in facilitating disinflation without the need for economic slack.

Market Expectations

Following Powell’s speech, market expectations for a September rate cut remained high. However, the majority of traders anticipate a quarter-point (25 basis points) reduction, with some seeing a possibility of a larger half-point (50 basis points) cut.

Policy Approach

Powell emphasized the need for a careful approach, stating that the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if necessary but intends to hold policy at a restrictive level until confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward their 2% objective. In conclusion, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech marked a turning point in Fed policy, signaling a readiness to begin cutting interest rates while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation and closely monitoring labor market conditions.

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2024 were 6.6% above July 2023 – significantly better than the 9.0% last month. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2024 was $429,800. The average sales price was $514,800. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 462,000. This represents a supply of 7.5 months at the current sales rate. Sales of new homes has been relatively good since the 2Q2023.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • $1 Trillion LNG Infrastructure Boom Threatens Climate Goals
  • U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Declines
  • The Time Has Come For Rate Cuts… and Higher Oil Prices
  • Oil Jumps 2% During Fed Jackson Hole Meeting
  • California Taxpayers to Foot $8.5 Billion Bill for Rooftop Solar Subsidies
  • Dow closes more than 450 points higher as Powell signals Fed rate cuts are coming: Live updates
  • Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September
  • 10-year Treasury yield slides after Powell remarks point to Fed rate cuts
  • Bitcoin rises after Fed Chair Powell lays groundwork for interest rate cuts: CNBC Crypto World
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Cava, Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday and more
  • America’s Power Grid Adds Most Generating Capacity In 21 Years As AI Data Center Demand Surges
  • WazirX security breach: Crypto platform to resume INR withdrawals in phases starting August 26

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 23, 2024

August 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 23 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 23 2024 – 12Z Sun Aug 25 2024

…Monsoonal thunderstorms could lead to excessive rainfall for much of
the Four Corners region today and into the weekend…

…Record heat begins to relent over the Southern Plains this weekend but
near record cool in the eastern U.S. and California…

…Critical Fire Risk and Red Flag Warnings in effect across much of the
Great Basin…

An anomalously amplified weather pattern across North America will
continue to bring sharply contrasting weather conditions across the U.S.
as we head into the weekend. This weather pattern will feature a warm
upper high over the southern Plains sandwiched in between two deep and
cold upper lows/troughs on either side of the West and East Coasts. A
deep and unstable southwesterly flow between the ridge and the upper low
near the Pacific Northwest will support monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms across the Four Corners region through the next few days,
especially early this morning when severe thunderstorms are advancing
farther downstream into the central Plains. Slot canyons and burn scars
are particularly vulnerable to flash flooding. The flash flooding threat
dwindles a bit heading into the weekend as the upper-ridge shifts slightly
eastward and the main energy associated with the upper low will be
directed farther north toward the northern High Plains where a new low
pressure system is forecast to form by Saturday night. Meanwhile,
critical fire weather danger is forecast for the Great Basin under gusty
and dry conditions behind a cold front.

The large upper low dipping into the Pacific Northwest will continue to
provide very cool and damp conditions into the West Coast today. In fact,
record cool high temperatures can be found today across California. The
anomalous cool conditions will penetrate farther inland during the
weekend, overspreading much of the western U.S. by Sunday morning. In
contrast, another afternoon of record high temperatures are forecast for
portions of Texas into Oklahoma under the warm upper high where 110s are
possible in portions of Texas Panhandle into nearby Oklahoma. This
heatwave is showing signs of relenting by this weekend as the cool air
from the western U.S. upper trough begins to erode the upper ridge.
However, heat indices are forecast to reach into the upper 90s to the mid
100s during the weekend while the heat begins to spread northward into the
central Plains.

Meanwhile, very cool and pleasant weather for August will continue to
prevail across much of the eastern U.S. under the cool upper trough
together with a cool high pressure system at the surface. In fact, record
cool temperatures are possible this morning across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and interior Southeast with
temperatures dipping as cold as the 40s. A gradual warming trend is
expected through the weekend for the eastern half of the country as the
high pressure system begins to slide off the East Coast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

22 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow And The S&P 500 Recorded New Historic Highs Minutes After The Opening Bell Only To Slide Precipitously Into The Red Shortly After, Finally Closing Sharply Down In The Red

August 22, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 178 points or 0.43%, (Closed at 40,713, New Historic high 41.027)
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.67%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.89%, (Closed at 5,571, New Historic high 5,643)
  • Gold $2,518 down $29.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.95,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.862 up 0.086 points,
  • USD index $101.53 up $0.49,
  • Bitcoin $60,314 down $657 or 1.07%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, with technology stocks leading the losses as investors turned their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.  Market Dynamics: The market’s focus has shifted to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which began on Thursday. Investors are particularly interested in any potential changes in tone from policymakers during Powell’s speech on Friday. This comes after minutes from the Fed’s last meeting revealed that several officials were open to a July rate cut, suggesting a possible pivot in next month’s policy decision. Economic Data: New data from the Department of Labor showed 232,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending August 17, slightly up from the previous week and in line with economists’ expectations. This data has gained increased attention following an official revision to payrolls that indicated the labor market may have been cooling earlier than initially thought. Rate Cut Expectations: Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been fluctuating. While there were earlier hopes for a 0.5% reduction, recent developments have tempered these expectations. Currently, markets are pricing in just a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, down from 38% the previous day.The upcoming speech by Powell at Jackson Hole is highly anticipated, as investors look for any signals that might contradict or confirm the market’s current optimistic outlook on rate cuts.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.06 in July 2024 which implies the economy is not recessionary but is in the neighborhood of weak expansion. Twenty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 57 made negative contributions. Thirty-one indicators improved from June to July, while 53 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

Existing-home sales improved in July 2024 but year-over-year sales fell 2.5%. Total housing inventory was up 19.8% from one year ago with unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.1 months in June but up from 3.3 months in July 2023. The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $422,600, up 4.2% from one year ago ($405,600). Note that existing home sales are not a component of GDP.  NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish. But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity declined less in August 2024 than in July. The month-over-month composite index was -3 in August, up from -13 in July and -8 in June . Manufacturing remains the soft spot in the current economy.

In the week ending August 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 236,500 to 236,750. There is no indication in unemployment numbers that a recession is in view.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Buying Opportunity May Have Arrived: Citi
  • Is China’s Steel Industry on the Brink of a Major Crisis?
  • Experts Skeptical of Lasting Cease-Fire Between Israel and Hamas
  • Global Offshore Wind Installations to Surpass 520 GW by 2040
  • Ford’s $5 Billion EV Loss Sparks Strategic Shift Towards Hybrids
  • Fed Minutes Signal September Rate Cut
  • Stocks close lower, Nasdaq slides 1% as Treasury yields rise and Powell speech looms: Live updates
  • Peloton shares soar 35% as turnaround plan takes hold, losses shrink
  • FDA approves updated Pfizer, Moderna Covid vaccines as virus surges; shots to be available within days
  • Philadelphia Fed President Harker advocates for interest rate cut in September
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Urban Outfitters, Peloton, Advance Auto Parts and more
  • ‘No Israeli Withdrawal, No Ceasefire Deal’: Hamas
  • Treasury yields jump by most in at least a week after fresh data ease near-term recession concerns
  • Is the August stock-market volatility behind us? This key indicator says not yet.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 22, 2024

August 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 22 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 22 2024 – 12Z Sat Aug 24 2024

…Record heat continues into the end of the week across the Southern
Plains…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies on Thursday…

…Record cold develops across California Friday into Saturday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the
Southern Plains…

A front over the Pacific Northwest Coast will move slowly eastward to the
Northern High Plains to the Great Basin and then into Southeastern
California by Saturday. The boundary will be on the leading edge of an
upper-level trough, bringing colder temperatures in the mid-70s to
California. The associated upper-level low will develop rain over parts of
the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Saturday.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and upper-level energy will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of
southeastern Utah, northern Arizona, southwestern Colorado, and
northwestern New Mexico. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great
Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies through Friday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, narrow
canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

The threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over the Four
Corners Region on Friday. However, there will still be a threat of heavy
rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
Central/Southern Rockies from Friday into Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting low-lying areas, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Additionally, a second front extending from the Northern Plains to the
Great Basin will move northward as a warm front over the Northern Tier
States by Saturday. On Thursday, the boundary will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains into parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will expand into
parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Moreover, another upper-level low over the Northeast will help create rain
with an embedded thunderstorm over parts of the Northeast through late
Thursday night. Further, an area of upper-level energy moving into the
Southeast will develop a weak upper-level low by Thursday evening. With
ample moisture over the area and a lingering boundary, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast through Saturday.

Additionally, upper-level energy trapped under an upper-level high and
moisture moving northward off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through
Saturday.

Meanwhile, the upper-level high over the Southern Plains will allow high
temperatures to be in the upper 90s and low 100s, with dew points in the
upper 60s and low 70s, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories
over parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, with low temperatures in
the lower 80s and upper 70s, little relief from the heat will occur
overnight. Therefore, people spending more time or effort outdoors or in a
building without cooling in areas with heat warnings are still at an
increased risk of heat-related illness.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

21 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Continued Its Tight, Sideways Trading For The Third Session, Again Making A New Historic New High Along With The S&P 500 Before Closing Fractionally Higher Than The Unchanged Line

August 21, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 56 points or 0.14%, (Closed at 40,890, New Historic high 40.974)
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.57%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.42%, (Closed at 5,621, New Historic high 5,633)
  • Gold $2,550 down $0.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $1.22,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.801 down 0.017 points,
  • USD index $101.19 down $0.25,
  • Bitcoin $61,550 up $2,528 or 4.28%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, marking a rebound after breaking their longest winning streak of the year. This upward movement came as investors analyzed the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, which indicated that most officials support a potential rate cut in September if inflation continues to decline. The market’s focus has shifted towards the labor market’s impact on Fed policy, especially as new data revealed that the U.S. economy had 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported as of March 2024. Despite this adjustment, economists noted that the labor market is softening but not in a state of rapid decline. Investors remain cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, with heightened expectations for a September rate cut. In corporate news, Target’s shares surged over 11% after reporting earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, while Macy’s shares fell nearly 13% following a sales decline. Overall, the S&P 500 is now less than 1% away from its all-time high, reflecting a broader recovery trend in the market.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has benchmarked the establishment survey with the results released today. These revised counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. This had lead to significant downward revisions to previously reported employment gains, indicating a slower job growth than initially estimated. My take on  this revision

Major Revision Details

The BLS revised job gains downward by 818,000 for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This substantial adjustment represents a reduction of 0.5% of total employment from April 2023 to March 2024.

Sector-Specific Impacts

The revision affected various sectors differently:

    • Professional and business services saw the largest absolute decrease, with 358,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.
    • Leisure and hospitality followed with a reduction of 150,000 jobs.
    • The information sector experienced the most significant percentage decline at 2.3%.

Economic Implications

This revision has several implications for the economy:

    1. It suggests that job growth was slower than initially thought, with approximately 2.1 million jobs created in the year ending March 2024.
    2. The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable at around 4%, despite the downward revision.
    3. The revision has added to concerns about a potential economic slowdown.
    4. It has sparked discussions about whether the Federal Reserve should have considered cutting interest rates sooner.

The Federal Reserve today released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee for the meetings held on July 30–31, 2024. There seems to be a sense when reading the minutes, that the Federal Reserve is close to reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points – likely at their next meeting. Highlights of the minutes:

Participants observed that inflation had eased over the past year but remained elevated and that, in recent months, there had been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective … participants judged that recent data had increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Almost all participants observed that the factors that had contributed to recent disinflation would likely continue to put downward pressure on inflation in coming months … 

Participants assessed that supply and demand conditions in the labor market had continued to come into better balance. The unemployment rate had moved up but remained low, having risen 0.7 percentage point since its trough in April 2023 to 4.1 percent in June … Regarding the outlook for the labor market, participants discussed various indicators of layoffs, including initial claims for unemployment benefits and measures of job separations. Some participants commented that these indicators had remained at levels consistent with a strong labor market …

participants observed that consumer spending had slowed from last year’s robust pace, consistent with restrictive monetary policy, easing of labor market conditions, and slowing income growth. They noted, however, that consumer spending had still grown at a solid pace in the first half of the year, supported by the still-strong labor market and aggregate household balance sheets … 

Participants discussed the risks and uncertainties around the economic outlook. Upside risks to the inflation outlook were seen as having diminished, while downside risks to employment were seen as having increased. Participants saw risks to achieving the inflation and employment objectives as continuing to move into better balance, with a couple noting that they viewed these risks as more or less balanced … 

Some participants observed that the banking system was sound but noted risks associated with unrealized losses on securities, reliance on uninsured deposits, and interconnections with nonbank financial intermediaries … Participants generally noted that some banks and nonbank financial institutions likely have vulnerabilities associated with high CRE exposures through loan portfolios and holdings of CMBS … 

In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants observed that recent indicators suggested that economic activity had continued to expand at a solid pace, job gains had moderated, and the unemployment rate had moved up but remained low. While inflation remained somewhat above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent, participants noted that inflation had eased over the past year and that recent incoming data indicated some further progress toward the Committee’s objective. All participants supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, although several observed that the recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision … 

Many participants noted that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity or employment. A couple participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way. Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a resurgence in aggregate demand and a reversal of the progress on inflation. These participants pointed to risks related to potential shocks that could put upward pressure on inflation or the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than currently expected.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Investors Are Flocking to Gold
  • EU Slashes Proposed Tariffs on Tesla’s China-Made EVs
  • Nigeria’s Massive Dangote Refinery Taking Less American Crude
  • Will Buffett Step in to Keep Occidental Afloat?
  • Oil Ticks Higher as EIA Reports Inventory Draws Across the Board
  • Texas Faces Growing Electricity Needs
  • Fed minutes point to ‘likely’ rate cut coming in September
  • Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says
  • U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
  • Epic Systems is building more than 100 new AI features for doctors and patients. Here’s what’s coming
  • ‘The Descent Is Upon Us’: Forget The Sahm Rule, This Indicator Has Perfectly Predicted Every US Recession Since 1930
  • Red-hot rent rises cool but tenants still struggling

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 21, 2024

August 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 21 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 21 2024 – 12Z Fri Aug 23 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Great Basin on Wednesday and expanding into parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern High Plains on Wednesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the
Southern Plains…

A front over the Northern Rockies will move slowly eastward to the
Northern Plains by Friday. The boundary will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over northeastern Montana and northwestern North Dakota.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes. However, there is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm
wind gusts 65 knots or greater.

In addition, an upper-level low over the Northeast will help create rain
with an embedded thunderstorm over parts of the Northeast through
Thursday. Moreover, upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi Valley
will move southeastward to the Southeast, developing a weak upper-level
low by Thursday evening. With ample moisture over the area, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast through Friday.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and upper-level energy will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Arizona
and southern Utah. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Great Basin
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
low-lying areas, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

On Thursday, the monsoonal moisture will extend farther northward over the
area. Likewise, the upper-level energy and monsoonal moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern Utah,
northern Arizona, southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern
Rockies from Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, low-lying areas, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn
scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, as the front over the Northern High Plains moves eastward on
Thursday, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Central
High Plains from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Elsewhere, as upper-level low moves southward along the Northwest Coast
will develop rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Friday.

Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Southern Plains will allow high
temperatures to be in the upper 90s and low 100s, with dew points in the
upper 60s and low 70s, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories
over parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, with low temperatures in
the lower 80s and upper 70s, little relief from the heat will occur
overnight. Therefore, people spending more time or effort outdoors or in a
building without cooling in areas with heat warnings are still at an
increased risk of heat-related illness.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.