This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 09 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 09 2024 – 12Z Wed Sep 11 2024…Heavy rain and a risk of flash flooding expected throughout much of the
Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula into midweek……Potentially dangerous heat forecast across southern California and the
Southwest today……Elevated to critical fire weather concerns as well as Air Quality
Alerts remain across much of the Great Basin…A stationary front extending from the Florida Peninsula through the
northern Gulf of Mexico along with a gradually organizing area of low
pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico (labeled Potential Tropical
Cyclone Six by the National Hurricane Center) will continue to produce
areas of heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding through midweek. For
today, the heaviest rainfall is anticipated over portions of southern
Texas, the central Gulf Coast, and much of the Florida Peninsula, mainly
associated with scattered showers and thunderstorms near the stationary
boundary. This may lead to isolated flash flooding concerns mainly
concentrated to urban locations. By Tuesday and more pronounced on
Wednesday, increased moisture content and organized bands of thunderstorms
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are forecast to reach the
western and central Gulf Coast. This will increase the risk of heavy
rainfall and considerable flash flooding. At the moment, the greatest risk
for rainfall amounts up to 12 inches and numerous flash floods are
forecast throughout southern Louisiana. Life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds are also possible from the Upper Texas Coast to the
Louisiana coastline as the system is forecast to reach hurricane strength
in the northwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and check www.nhc.noaa.gov for the
latest forecast.Dangerous heat is in the forecast for at least one additional day for
southern California and parts of the Southwest. Highs into the upper 90s
and triple digits have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories to be issued, with a cooling trend set to commence by midweek.
The combination of above average temperatures, dry vegetation, and gusty
winds have resulted in elevated to critical fire weather concerns
throughout much of the Intermountain West through the next couple of days.
Additionally, current wildfires continue to pump smoke into the atmosphere
of the northern Great Basin, leading to poor air quality. This smoke is
also forecast to extend eastward in the mid-to-upper levels of the
atmosphere through the northern Plains and Ohio Valley, creating
noticeably hazy skies.Elsewhere, well above average temperatures are expected across the
north-central U.S. as highs return to the upper 80s and low 90s, which
equates to around 10-15 degrees above average. Cooler, fall-like
temperatures will kickoff the new workweek throughout the Ohio Valley and
East until temperatures return to near normal by Wednesday as the dominant
high pressure system in place slowly slides eastward to the western
Atlantic.While notable precipiation should be mostly sparse across the Lower 48
outside of the Gulf Coast, a few areas of locally heavy rain are possible
across the Northeast and Northwest through Wednesday. Isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible throughout Upstate New York today as a weak
cold front dives across the region, with some storms potentially
containing damaging wind gusts. Increasing precipitation chances are also
forecast to spread into the Northwest and Northern Rockies as a deep upper
low swings eastward from the northeast Pacific.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
