29 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Open Higher, Dow Reaches New Historic High, The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Close Lower As Nvidia Sheds Over 8%

August 29, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 244 points or 0.59%, (Closed at 41,335, New Historic high 41.578)
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
  • S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
  • Gold $2,555 up $17.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.43,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.867 up 0.026 points,
  • USD index $101.38 up $0.28,
  • Bitcoin $59,482 up $379 or 0.64%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record high marking its third record close this week. Key factors were:

Nvidia Earnings

    • Nvidia’s quarterly profit and revenue guidance topped estimates, but fell short of high expectations.
    • This raised questions about whether the AI boom has peaked.
    • Nvidia shares ended down around 6% despite Wall Street remaining bullish on the stock.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Economic Data

    • Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3% annualized, higher than the previous 2.8% estimate.
    • Weekly jobless claims came in at 231,000, lower than expected.

Other Earnings

    • Salesforce shares rose after beating earnings expectations.
    • Best Buy shares jumped up to 17% on better-than-expected results.
    • Dollar General shares plunged 30% after cutting its full-year outlook.

The mixed market performance reflects investors assessing Nvidia’s earnings alongside stronger-than-expected economic data, as they also consider the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 36% to 149 in July from 234 in June. It is down 24% from 197 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

The labor market is softening, and companies are finding ways to lower costs. Companies have made leadership changes in response to AI, the political landscape, and international events causing substantial impacts on business conditions.

The second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024. Using a year-over-year metric, there was no change in growth between the advance and second estimates in 2Q2024. In the first quarter, real GDP increased at 2.9% year-over-year. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased . The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6% year-over-year in the second quarter – up from the 2.4% year-over-year in 1Q2024.

Pending home sales (a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings) slipped to 70.2 in July, the lowest reading since the index began tracking in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions were down 8.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The existing home market remains depressed – but note that it is not a component of GDP. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

A sales recovery did not occur in midsummer. The positive impact of job growth and higher inventory could not overcome affordability challenges and some degree of wait-and-see related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 231,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 236,000 to 236,250. There is little evidence of a potential recession in this data.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Beijing and Washington Clash Over Russia Sanctions
  • UK Plans New Environmental Guidance for North Sea Oil and Gas Firms
  • How China is Circumventing Sanctions to Buy Iranian Oil
  • CNOOC Expects Oil Prices to Remain Rangebound Between $75 and $85
  • Traders Concerned About Near-Term Risks for European Gas Supply
  • Dow rises 200 points for fresh record close, Nasdaq falls as Nvidia shares tumble: Live updates
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. Here’s what to expect
  • Disillusioned crypto investors are struggling behind bitcoin’s ETF success
  • Nvidia shares fall despite earnings beating estimates
  • Bitcoin drifts back to $60,000, trimming the week’s losses: CNBC Crypto World
  • Apple, Nvidia Eye Investments In OpenAI As ChatGPT Hits $100 Billion Valuation
  • Treasury yields rise after latest batch of U.S. economic data
  • With earnings season behind us, the stock market is aiming at new all-time highs

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 29, 2024

August 29, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 29 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 29 2024 – 12Z Sat Aug 31 2024

…Above average heat expected to linger across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys through Friday before a cooling trend arrives by the weekend…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the upper Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic today, then across the Great Lakes on Friday…

…Some tropical heavy rain and thunderstorms could affect the western
Gulf Coast region through the next couple of days…

A vigorous low pressure system currently centered near the U.S.-Canadian
border of the High Plains will move steadily across southern Canada
through the next couple of days. Strong to severe thunderstorms forming
ahead of a potent cold front trailing south from the low pressure center
will likely impact North Dakota early this morning, before quickly
advancing into Minnesota and down across the central Plains into this
evening. These thunderstorms could develop into supercells that may
contain damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile,
thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic could also be strong to severe where
some gusty winds and heavy rain may lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding by this evening and into the overnight. The
front that helps trigger these thunderstorms will gradually edge farther
southward into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, bringing relief from the heat
with high temperatures only reaching into the 70s for much of the
Northeast. The cool air will not have a chance to reach into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys though as southerly flow increases ahead of the deep low
pressure system in southern Canada. A couple more days of heat with
afternoon high temperatures well up into the 90s are expected in these
areas. Above average overnight low temperatures will provide little
relief, lows will likely stay in the 70s for much of the region. A
cooling trend will set in by the weekend behind the cold front. Scattered
thunderstorms with embedded strong to severe storms will then extend
southwestward across the Midwest into the central Plains on Friday as the
trailing end of the front begins to slow down and become nearly stationary
into the southern Plains by Saturday.

Separate from the frontal system across the northern tier of the country,
tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could lead to heavy rain across
portions of the western Gulf Coast region as an upper-level low lingers
over Texas. A small scale low pressure center could form and interact
with a subtle coastal front to enhance rainfall rates, leading to the
potential for flooding issues over portions of the the western Gulf Coast
through the next couple of days.

Across the rest of the country, a general cooldown is expected behind the
cold front across the north-central U.S. and high temperatures should be
generally in the middle 80s. Much of the Southeast should be warm and
humid with commonplace high temperatures in the middle 90s. A warming
trend is expected for the western U.S. following the recent cool spell as
the strong low departs into southern Canada.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

28 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Opened Fractionally Higher While The Small Caps Trended Sharply Down Into The Red, All Three Major Indexes Closing Moderately Lower After Paring Session Losses

August 28, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 159 points or 0.39%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.12%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.60%,
  • Gold $2,542 down $11.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.77,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.841 up 0.008 points,
  • USD index $101.12 up $0.56,
  • Bitcoin $58,907 down $293 or 0.49%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

Tech stocks led the market lower on Wednesday as investors awaited Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report after the closing bell. Here are the key points:

  • The major stock indexes all declined.
  • Nvidia shares fell about 2% ahead of its Q2 earnings release at 5 pm eastern (the same time this newsletter is published). The chipmaker’s results are seen as a crucial test of AI spending and tech sector strength.
  • Traders are expecting a potential 10% swing in Nvidia’s stock price following the report. Wall Street is forecasting massive year-over-year growth in Nvidia’s earnings and revenue.
  • The Information Technology sector was the worst performer in the S&P 500, declining 1.4%.
  • Other notable movers included SuperMicro Computer, which fell 19% on a delayed annual report filing, and retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker, which both dropped double digits.
  • Nvidia’s earnings are being closely watched for insights on AI demand and chip production, with potential to move the broader market given the company’s $3.2 trillion valuation and 160% stock gain this year.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No economic releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Small Tax on Super-Rich Could Yield Billions for Caucasus, Central Asia
  • Argentina Plans to More Than Double Lithium Revenues by 2027
  • Why Brand Loyalty Takes a Backseat for American Car Buyers
  • Oil Unmoved by Crude, Gasoline Draws
  • Nvidia reports earnings after the bell
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower Wednesday, Nvidia tumbles before earnings: Live updates
  • The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
  • Super Micro shares fall 19% on filing delay, Hindenburg Research report
  • Google to relaunch tool for creating AI-generated images of people after pulling service due to inaccuracies
  • Supreme Court refuses to revive Biden’s latest student loan debt relief plan
  • Oil settles lower, with the end of the summer driving season likely to weaken demand

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

August 28, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in positive territory. The economy is stratified with some sectors going gangbusters, other sectors barely above recessionary levels, whilst other sectors are in recession territory. Inflation continues its snail’s pace moderation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 28, 2024

August 28, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 28 2024 – 12Z Fri Aug 30 2024

…Record heat for the Mid-Atlantic today but the heat will last a couple
more days for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the interior Southeast…

…Active thunderstorms will bring the threats of heavy rain, flash
flooding and severe weather across the northern Plains tonight and then
the upper Midwest Thursday through early Friday…

…Strong to severe late afternoon thunderstorms possible across the
east-central U.S for today and Thursday…

…First snowflakes of the season expected for the high elevations of
northwestern Montana today while fire weather threat blankets portions of
the northern Rockies…

A cold front has brought relief to the heat across the northern Plains
while triggering clusters of strong thunderstorms across the Midwest this
morning. As the front continues to push east and southeastward, a day of
record heat is expected to impact the Mid-Atlantic states where high
temperature could reach 100 degrees around the nation’s capital. This
heatwave will be relatively short-lived for the Mid-Atlantic as a much
cooler and damp air mass associated with a Canadian high pressure system
will quickly settle southward across the Great Lakes/New England into the
Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. However, much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
will feel a couple more days of high temperatures topping into the upper
90s at the hottest locations as the next low pressure system marching
across the northern Plains will cease the southward progress of the cool
air and keep the heat in place for these areas. As the cold front
approaches, the hot air will be lifted and help trigger lines of
thunderstorms which can become severe along with locally heavy downpours
and very gusty winds. The highest threat for severe weather will be later
today into this evening from Ohio eastward across the northern
Mid-Atlantic near/after the time of maximum heating in the afternoon.
Some more strong thunderstorms could form Thursday afternoon farther
southward into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Very cool air will then
blanket the entire Northeast on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the strong cold front associated with the next low pressure
system is marching across the northern Rockies. Sharply colder air behind
the system will likely bring the first snowflakes of the season for the
high elevations of northwestern Montana today while fire weather threat
blankets portions of the northern Rockies. The strong frontal system will
move steadily across the northern and central Plains on Thursday where the
threat of severe weather will be highest from Wednesday night across North
Dakota, then shifting east across a large chunk of the Midwest and upper
Midwest Thursday to Thursday night.

Farther south in Texas, an upper low had moved inland from the Gulf of
Mexico since yesterday. The instability has continued to help trigger
scattered thunderstorms across southern Texas. Meanwhile, deep southerly
flow to the east of the upper low has directed tropical moisture northward
from the Gulf toward the western Gulf Coast region, where some heavy
rainfall could develop in the vicinity during the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, while monsoonal moisture has become not as active and
widespread over the southern Rockies today, more focused activities across
southwestern New Mexico could lead to heavy rainfall. By Thursday, the
trailing cold front across the Plains will likely push the rain farther
east into the southern Plains where strong to severe storms are possible
by later in the day.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

27 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Lower, Immediately Trended Higher, Traded Across The Unchanged Line For A While Before The Dow Closed At A New Closing High

August 27, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 10 points or 0.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.16%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.16%,
  • Gold $2,551 up $5.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.73,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.833 up 0.015 points,
  • USD index $100.55 down $0.03,
  • Bitcoin $61,990 down $809 or 1.29%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

The US stock market experienced mixed trading on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average managing to secure another record close while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw modest gains. Investors remained cautious ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report scheduled for Wednesday.

Key Factors Influencing the Market:

Nvidia Earnings Anticipation

Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s (NVDA) second-quarter earnings report, which is expected to be a significant market-moving event. The chipmaker’s results could have broader implications for the tech sector and the AI-driven rally that has propelled markets this year.Inflation UpdateMarket participants are also focused on the upcoming release of the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This report could impact expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the near future.

Corporate News

Apple (AAPL) announced a change in its CFO position, with Kevan Parekh set to replace the long-standing executive whilst the Paramount (PARA) takeover saga appears to be nearing conclusion, with Skydance Media likely to secure a deal.

Analyst Insights

Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, expressed optimism about Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, stating, “I think they will once again exceed earnings expectations. They’ll exceed revenue expectations, and they’re going to announce substantial growth in their data center business”.As the market awaits Nvidia’s results, the company’s performance could have significant implications for the broader AI ecosystem and investor sentiment in the tech sector

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.5% in June 2024, dropping from a 6.9% increase in the previous month. I do not hold out much hope there is a good solution to moderate home price inflation as overall it is not good for anyone except for flippers.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey slowed in August 2024, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from −17 in July to −19 in August. Of its three component indexes, shipments rose from −21 to −15, new orders decreased from −23 to −26, and employment fell from −5 to −15. Manufacturing is not doing well in the U.S.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in August 2024 to 103.3 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 134.4 from 133.1 in July. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board added:

Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income. In August, confidence declined among consumers under 35 while it increased for those 35 and older. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest among young consumers. Despite the overall improvement in the headline Index, confidence declined for consumers earning less than $25K. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100K remained the most confident. Confidence among consumers earning $15K to $24.9K continued to trend down and was almost as low as for those earning less than $15K.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Iran Nuclear Deal ‘Off the Table,’ U.S. Affirms
  • Norway’s Natural Gas Exports Surge in 2024
  • Largest U.S Grid Faces Tough Test as Heat Wave Hits Midwest
  • Goldman Sachs Cuts Its Expected Oil Price Range by $5
  • Low Hydro Storage Forces New Zealand to Boost Fossil Fuel Power Generation
  • Home prices hit record high in June on S&P Case-Shiller Index
  • Nvidia has become world’s ‘most important stock,’ adding pressure to upcoming earnings report
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq close slightly higher Tuesday, lifted by Nvidia shares: Live updates
  • 2 people killed, 1 injured in reported tire explosion at Delta facility in Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson airport
  • Freezing your credit is the first step to avoid identity theft, expert says. Here’s what to know
  • Solid 2Y Treasury Auction Prices At Lowest Yield In Two Years
  • Lowe’s becomes latest company to back away from diversity plans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 27, 2024

August 27, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 27 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 27 2024 – 12Z Thu Aug 29 2024

…A brief spell of record heat expected to spread from the Midwest to the
East Coast…

…Active showers and severe thunderstorms this morning across the
northern Plains and upper Midwest/Great Lakes will shift eastward into the
northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England by late Wednesday into early
Thursday…

…First snowflakes of the season could reach the higher elevations of
northwestern Montana on Wednesday followed by a chance of severe
thunderstorms across North Dakota Wednesday night/early Thursday…

The closed upper high currently centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley
will be expanding eastward over the next two days, spreading into large
portions of the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic southward. This will
send a quick spell of potentially record high temperatures from the
Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, southern to central
Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. The combination of hot
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s to near 100 degrees together with
high humidity levels will produce maximum daily heat indices of between
105 and 115 degrees across these regions, with heat risks reaching major
to extreme levels today across the Midwest into lower Great Lakes.
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat advisories are currently in effect across
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, the Midwest and southern New England,
affecting nearly 61 million people, with further expansion of these
warnings and advisories possible into portions of the Mid-Atlantic for
Wednesday. This spell of record heat will be relatively short-lived as a
cool high pressure system settling into southern Canada is forecast to
send a cool and damp air mass into the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will
quickly overspread New England Wednesday night, reaching into the
Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning behind a sharp cold front.

Around the peripheries of the above mentioned upper high, precipitation is
likely to be active along the Gulf Coast and from portions of the
Southwest, northeastward into the Central Plains, upper Mississippi
Valley, upper Great Lakes into northern New England in this “ring of
fire”. In these regions, moisture values are forecast to remain above
average, supporting the potential for areas of active thunderstorms, heavy
rains and flash flooding. Active showers and severe thunderstorms this
morning across the northern Plains and upper Midwest/Great Lakes could
result in areas of heavy rains and flash flooding. Some of these
thunderstorms are expected to shift eastward into the northern New England
by early Wednesday, before some additional strong to severe thunderstorms
and heavy rain possible across portions of the upper Ohio Valley, central
Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic later on Wednesday into early
Thursday ahead of the sharp cold front.

While much above to record high temperatures dominate portions of the
central to eastern U.S. into mid week, another strong front will be
pushing inland into the Pacific Northwest followed by the northern Rockies
and into the northern High Plains by this evening. Much below average
temperatures in the wake of this front will likely spread across the
Pacific Northwest for today and into the northern Rockies/northern High
Plains on Wednesday with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average.
There is not expected to be a lot of precipitation with this front over
the Northwest, but the falling temperatures could bring the first
snowflakes of the season for the higher elevations of northwestern Montana
on Wednesday. By Wednesday night into early Thursday, a chance of severe
thunderstorms will be moving eastward across North Dakota ahead of the
strong cold front.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

26 AUG 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow And The S&P 500 Scores New Historic Highs, Then The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Slipped Sharply Into The Red, Closing Near Session Lows

August 26, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 65 points or 0.16%, (Closed at 41,241, New Historic high 41.420)
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.85%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.32%, (Closed at 5,617, New Historic high 5,652)
  • Gold $2,555 up $8.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $2.31,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.820 up 0.013 points,
  • USD index $100.90 up $0.19,
  • Bitcoin $63,370 down $1,220 or 1.89%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks ended mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new record high while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined.  Key points from the session:

  1. Technology stocks lagged, with semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Nvidia falling along with Tesla.
  2. Investors are weighing the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts signaled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week against upcoming economic data and earnings reports.
  3. Markets are pricing in rate cuts totaling 1% by the end of 2024, but uncertainty remains about the timing and magnitude.
  4. Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday is seen as a crucial event that could impact market sentiment, especially regarding AI-related stocks.
  5. Other important economic data coming this week include the PCE inflation index on Friday and Q2 GDP figures on Thursday.
  6. Oil prices jumped about 3% due to production issues in Libya and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The market’s performance reflects a mix of optimism about potential rate cuts and caution ahead of key economic data and earnings reports, particularly from the technology sector. The divergence between the Dow’s record high and declines in tech-heavy indexes highlights the current market dynamics.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July 2024 was up 1.3% year-over-year (0.2% inflation adjusted). This is up from last month’s -10.6% year-over-year. Not sure what happened in last month’s data to have this excessive decline, but the growth this month was across all sectors except for non-defense aircraft (Boeing). It is possible that the data one year ago had unusually high new orders.

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey exhibited little growth in August 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, inched up three points to 1.6, with the low reading signaling only slight growth in output from July. Most other measures of manufacturing activity continued to indicate declines this month, though they were less negative than in July. The new orders index climbed nine points to -4.2, and the capacity utilization index pushed up eight points to -2.5. The shipments index came in near zero, rebounding from -16.3 last month. Manufacturing remains a soft spot in today’s economy.

CoreLogic’s latest Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows national year-over-year rent growth is returning to pre-pandemic rates as prices continue to hold steady. In June 2024, prices remained relatively stable, posting a 2.9% gain year-over-year. Although rental prices are growing slowly — this time last year, rent increases were 2.8% year over year — they continue their steady climb. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic added:

Single-family rents have been bouncing around their pre-pandemic rate of growth of about 3% this year after growing by double digits for most of 2021 and 2022. At the end of 2023, they did slow to the mid-2% range. While single-family rents are increasing at a stable rate, median rent continues to rise and has increased over $300 over the past two years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Looming Atlantic Current Collapse Threatens Northern Europe’s Climate
  • EIA Reports Increase in U.S. EV Sales After Slowdown
  • How Long Will Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally Last?
  • Rate Cut Euphoria Fades as Oil Prices Jump 3.5%
  • Canada Slaps 100% Import Tariff on Chinese EVs
  • Oil Prices Soar as Geopolitical Risk Rises Rapidly
  • Dow closes at record high, while tech stocks drag down S&P and Nasdaq: Live updates
  • Telegram-linked crypto token plunges after CEO is arrested in France: CNBC Crypto World
  • Dutch Gov’t Slaps Uber With Record $324 Million Fine For “Transferring Driver Data To US”
  • Ikea trials resale website to rival eBay and Gumtree
  • Treasury yields tick higher as traders wait for more clarity on Fed’s next move

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 26, 2024

August 26, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Aug 26 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 26 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 28 2024

...A couple of days of intense heat and humidity expected to impact the
Midwest…

…Severe storms and isolated flash flooding possible across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest today and the Great Lakes on Tuesday…

…Daily monsoonal thunderstorms shifting eastward into the southern
Rockies/High Plains…

A couple of days of intense heat and humidity are expected to impact the
Midwest as deep southerly flow behind an intensifying upper-level high
unleashes the heat from the southern Plains. Forecast highs in the
mid-90s to near 100 combined with high humidity will send heat indices
into the 105-115 degree range, with widespread heat-related advisories and
warnings in place. Morning lows will also remain very warm, in the mid-
to upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible both over the Midwest as well
as into portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. Those without efficient
air-conditioning or who must spend time or effort outdoors will be at a
heightened risk of heat-related illness. Remember to drink plenty of
water and seek out relief from the heat. An approaching cold front and
increased storm coverage will help to bring relief to portions of the
upper Midwest on Tuesday. While the southern Plains will see some relief
from the record heat that has plagued the region, conditions will still be
hot with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s.

Meanwhile, as upper-level shortwaves eject out of the northern Rockies and
interact with a low pressure wave tracking along a couple of fronts across
the northern Plains, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to impact portions of the northern Plains into the upper Midwest.
The hot temperatures and plentiful moisture ahead of the front will
contribute to strong to extreme instability leading to the potential for
rapid development of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center is
forecasting an enhanced risk of severe weather from eastern South Dakota
through southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin today into tonight as
the center of the low pressure wave tracks just to the south. Very large
hail, widespread and potentially significant damaging winds with any
organized lines of storms, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. A
broader Slight Risk covers portions of the Upper Midwest and
northern/central Plains for some more isolated instances of large hail and
damaging winds. The upper-level shortwaves will help to erode the
upper-high over the Great Lakes on Tuesday mainly across the Great Lakes.
In addition to severe weather, the plentiful moisture and high instability
will support areas of intense downpours which could organize into more
widespread heavy rain coverage at times, leading to the risk of some
isolated flash flooding each day.

Monsoonal thunderstorm chances today are shifting a bit eastward into the
southern Rockies and High Plains, with similar activities returning later
on Tuesday. Some locally heavy downpours remain possible along with the
threat of isolated flash flooding especially across terrain-sensitive
areas along steeper hills/mountain ranges and over burn scars. Some
post-frontal showers and storms are expected into the northern Rockies
through this evening as well. Temperatures over portions of the West will
remain well below average following a frontal passage and under the
influence of an unseasonably strong upper-trough. Forecast highs in the
70s will be common over the northern/central Rockies and eastern Great
Basin. More seasonably warm temperatures will return by Tuesday with highs
back up into the 80s. However, a cold front moving into the Pacific
Northwest will drop highs into the 60s and 70s along with the arrival of
showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday mainly over western
Washington.

Elsewhere, instability associated with an upper-level trough dipping into
New England will bring shower and storm chances through this evening with
some moderate to possibly locally heavy rainfall. Some severe storms will
also be possible, with a Slight Risk over southern New England for the
potential of some large hail and damaging winds. Plenty of clouds will
help to keep temperatures cool here compared to elsewhere in the eastern
U.S., with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Daily showers and storms are also
expected over Florida and along the Gulf Coast into south Texas with a
lingering frontal boundary in the region as an upper-level low tracks
westward into southern Texas.

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Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.