EconCurrents

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 8, 2024

By Sig Silber September 8, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 08 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 08 2024 – 12Z Tue Sep 10 2024

…Dangerous heat continues to impact portions of southern California and
the Southwest through Monday…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible
along the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast over the next several
days…

…Below average temperatures forecast across much of the Midwest and East
through the beginning of the week…

Potentially dangerous and record-breaking heat is forecast to continue
across southern California as highs soar into the upper 90s and triple
digits away from the immediate coastline. Excessive Heat Warnings remain
in effect through Monday as a gradual cooldown commences on Tuesday. Highs
into the triple digits are also forecast throughout the remainder of the
Desert Southwest, but not considered as anomalous as values forecast
across southern California. Elsewhere, above average temperatures are
anticipated across the northern Great Basin and northern Plains as
upper-level ridging slides eastward. Heat will wane across eastern
Washington and neighboring states by Tuesday as the core of the
late-summer temperatures concentrate over the northern Plains. Highs in
the north-central U.S. are forecast to reach into the low-to-mid 90s early
this week, which equates to around 10 to 20 degrees above average for this
time of year. Additionally, sultry heat and humidity will impact southern
Florida once again today, where Heat Advisories have been issued due to
maximum heat indices forecast to near 110 degrees. Remember to follow
proper heat safety by staying hydrated, limiting strenuous outdoor
activity during peak daytime heating, and checking on vulnerable
individuals.

Much of the Nation is anticipated to be void of notable precipitation over
the next few days, with the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast being
the lone exception. A lingering stationary front and developing area of
low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico will focus heavy rainfall
potential from the coastal Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula and entire
Gulf Coast region. Scattered flash flooding is possible where the heaviest
rainfall occurs, with urban and low-lying areas most at risk to flooding
impacts. Otherwise, isolated flash flooding is also possible in parts of
the Intermountain West through early this week due to widely scattered
thunderstorms developing in tandem with daytime heating.

Large surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the
Midwest and East throughout Tuesday will not only supply sunny and dry
conditions for much of the Lower 48, but well below average temperatures
as well. In fact, daily record lows are possible between the Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic this morning as temperatures dip into the 40s for most
locations. Patchy frost is possible in low lying protected areas. As this
autumnal airmass moderates somewhat early this week, afternoon
temperatures will gradually warm back into the mid-80s by Tuesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation – Published September 7, 2024

By Sig Silber September 7, 2024ClimateNo Comments

I am just republishing this Open Access article as I think this will be new information for EconCurrents.com readers. I am a bit surprised that the reduction of spring precipitation plays such a large role.

Citation: Hogan, D., & Lundquist, J. D. (2024). Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(16), e2024GL109826. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109826

Abstract

Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March-April-May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post-2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow-dominated water resource region.

Key Points

Significant decreases in spring precipitation have been observed since 2000 in headwater basins of the Upper Colorado

Drier springs have corresponded with greater spring potential evapotranspiration (PET)

Spring precipitation decreases and PET increases explain much of the variability in observed streamflow deficits in these headwater basins

Plain Language Summary

With over 40 million people dependent on the Colorado River, the 19% drop in streamflow since 2000 has been worrying, especially because its cause is not well understood. To explain this drop, we focused on changes to spring weather in snow-dominated basins, which contribute over 80% of the river’s water. We found spring precipitation decreases since 2000 not only reduced streamflow but also correlated with higher temperatures and evaporation rates and less cloudiness. These impacts combined to intensify streamflow declines in basins with earlier snowmelt. The importance of spring precipitation to Colorado River streamflow underscores the need to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts. Such improvements would enhance water availability predictions for the one billion people worldwide reliant on snow for water resources.

Some will have to click on “Read More” to access the full article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 7, 2024

By Sig Silber September 7, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 07 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 09 2024

…Dangerous heat continues to impact portions of the West this weekend…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding are possible along
the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast…

…Below average temperatures to settle in across much of the Midwest and
East through the beginning of next week…

A few more days of record-breaking and dangerous heat are in store for
parts of the West as well above average temperatures linger underneath a
weakening upper-level high pressure system. Areas most likely to
experience major to extreme HeatRisk (levels of heat that affect anyone
without effective cooling or adequate hydration) through Sunday include
southern California, the Desert Southwest, and the northern Great Basin.
These regions are also where Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
remain in effect. High temperatures in the Southwest are expected to soar
into the upper 90s and triple digits, with 110s in the typically hottest
desert locations through at least Monday. Highs into the upper 90s are
forecast to simmer the northern Great Basin before a gradual cooling trend
commences by early next week, with the anomalously warm temperatures
forecast to shift eastward into the northern Plains. Residents and
visitors are advised to continue following proper heat safety. This
includes staying hydrated and avoiding extended periods of time outdoors
during the hottest parts of the day. Poor air quality will also remain a
concern for parts of the Great Basin as wildfire smoke continues to
overspread the region.

A stationary front extending from off the Southeast coastline to the
northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as its moisture gradient
gets reinforced by a separate approaching cold front sinking southward
across the Deep South today. Areas of locally heavy rain and scattered
flash floods are possible from the coastal Carolinas to the central Gulf
Coast, including northern and central Florida. Greater concentration of
tropical downpours are anticipated to reorient to southern Texas by Monday
as an area of low pressure develops in the Bay of Campeche and ushers
elevated atmospheric moisture westward to the western Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, a cold front sweeping across the East Coast today will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Northeast. Behind this
frontal boundary and underneath potent high pressure, below average and
crisp temperatures are expected to overspread much of the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and East this weekend. Widespread lows into the 40s will lead to
a few chilly mornings, with several daily record lows possible between
Missouri and New Jersey on Sunday. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out for
some locations. Conversely, southern Florida will remain hot and humid
this weekend as high temperatures rise into the low-to-mid 90s, while heat
indices approach 110 degrees.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

06 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Friday’s Job Report Missed Expectations And The Markets Fell Like A Rock, Closing At Session Lows

By Gary Hall September 6, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 410 points or 1.01%,
Nasdaq closed down 2.55%,
S&P 500 closed down 1.73%,
Gold $2,525 down $17.90,
WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.97,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.723 down 0.010 points,
USD index $101.19 up $0.08,
Bitcoin $53,725 down $2,451 or 4.36%,
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 582 Canada unchanged to 220

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The major U.S. stock indexes erased earlier gains and declined sharply in afternoon trading. The August jobs report showed 142,000 jobs added, below expectations of 165,000. The markets believed that there were signs of continued cooling in the labor market. The weaker-than-expected jobs data shifted expectations for the Fed’s upcoming meeting with the markets believing there was Increased chances of a larger 50 basis point rate cut. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that “the time has come” to lower rates. In corporate news, Broadcom shares fell nearly 10% on weak sales forecast and other chip stocks like Nvidia also declined significantly. Overall, stocks whipsawed this week as investors assessed economic data . All three major indexes are set for significant weekly declines.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew 142,000 in August 2024 (according to the establishment survey) with the unemployment rate declining insignificantly to 4.2% (according to the household survey). The household survey shows employment growth of 168,000 with the establishment’s growth of 142,000. I generally consider 150,000 job growth as the metric for healthy jobs growth to accommodate new workers entering the economy – and this month the household survey estimated 120,000 additional workers were added to the workforce. So jobs growth this month was more than the estimated workforce growth. Unfortunately manufacturing employment declined while health care, construction, and government were the largest employment growth sectors. No evidence in these numbers of a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth Defies Regional Instability
U.S. Oil, Gas Drillers Ease Up As Prices Crash
Toyota Slashes EV Production Goal Amid Global Slowdown
Texas Denies State Funding to 1.3 GW Natural Gas Plant Project
Why Oil Prices Fell Back Below $70
S&P 500 tumbles Friday to post worst week since 2023, Nasdaq drops 2% for worst weekly performance since 2022: Live updates
Here’s where the jobs are for August 2024 — in one chart
Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
Home listings are up more than 60% in some cities. Here’s where
Bitcoin and ether head for second week of losses: CNBC Crypto World
Oregon Reverses Liberal Drug Law After “Losing A Generation” To Addiction
The bond market just flashed a reliable recession signal. Don’t panic.
2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest since 2022 after August payrolls miss expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 6, 2024

By Sig Silber September 6, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 06 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 06 2024 – 12Z Sun Sep 08 2024

…Dangerous heat continues to impact large sections of the West into this
weekend…

…Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding are likely throughout the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast over the next few days…

…Showers and isolated severe thunderstorms possible from the Ohio Valley
to the Lower Great Lakes today…

An upper level high pressure system is expected to continue aiding well
above average and potentially dangerous temperatures throughout the West
into the first full weekend of September. Highs today are forecast to soar
into the triple digits for much of the Southwest and interior California,
with 110s in the typically hottest locations of the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile, daily high temperature records are possible in the Northwest
where mid-to-upper 90s are in the forecast. A minimal relaxing of the
extreme heat should be felt throughout much of the West and Southwest on
Saturday, but with temperatures remaining above average. The core of the
anomalous heat will shift to the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies
as parts of eastern Oregon and Washington experience another day with
highs well into the 90s. Poor air quality will also remain an issue
throughout parts of the northern Great Basin as wildfire smoke continues
to plague the region. Residents and visors are advised to follow proper
heat safety, which includes checking on vulnerable individuals.

Not much heavy precipitation to speak of throughout the Nation over the
next few days besides along the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast. A
lingering stationary front and a couple waves of low pressure will provide
a focus for tropical downpours over already saturated soils. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall turning into flash flooding impacts are forecast
across southeast Louisiana today, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued. Several inches of rain occurring
within a very short period of time could lead to numerous flash floods
here. A scattered flash flood threat also extends eastward along and just
north of the stationary front into northern Florida and southern Georgia.
This frontal boundary is expected to gradually sink southward by Saturday
as an area of low pressure exits off the Southeast coastline, with a
persisting isolated flash flood potential extending from the central Gulf
Coast and northern Florida to the coastal Carolinas. Remember, most flood
fatalities occur within vehicles… turn around, don’t drown.

Elsewhere, a cold front sweeping across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great
Lakes will usher in below average temperatures throughout the Great Lakes,
Midwest, before reaching the East Coast by this weekend, while also
producing areas of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce
locally gusty winds and hail today in the Ohio Valley and nearby Lake Erie
region. Scattered showers are expected to progress eastward along the cold
front on Saturday and dampen weekend plans throughout the Interior
Northeast and sections of New England by Saturday evening.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

05 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Market’s Appear To Becoming Weaker As Friday’s Job Report Looms Ominously

By Gary Hall September 5, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 219 points or 0.54%,
Nasdaq closed up 0.25%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.30%,
Gold $2,544 up $18.30,
WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.04,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.733 down 0.035 points,
USD index $101.11 down $0.24,
Bitcoin $56,071 down $1,914 or 3.30%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

US stocks showed mixed performance on Thursday as investors processed weaker-than-expected labor market data ahead of Friday’s crucial jobs report. The market remains cautious as it awaits Friday’s August jobs report, which will be crucial for assessing the state of the economy and potential Fed actions.

Labor market data: ADP reported private payrolls grew by only 99,000 in August, the smallest monthly increase since January 2021. Slightly fewer Americans filed new unemployment claims last week. Job openings declined according to Wednesday’s government data. The weak labor data could support the case for deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, it may also signal a potential recession, challenging hopes for a “soft landing”.

Federal Reserve expectations: Traders see a nearly 50-50 chance of a 0.5% rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.

Corporate news: C3.ai shares fell 8% after weak subscription revenue. HPE stock slipped on disappointing profitability. Tesla pared earlier gains but still rose nearly 5% on plans to launch Full Self-Driving software in China and Europe.

Sector performance: Information Technology has fallen nearly 4% over the past four days. Apple is down 3% and Nvidia down nearly 9% in the same period.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 99,000 jobs in August 2024 according to ADP. Now, it seems, that the BLS employment numbers now resemble the numbers ADP was releasing for the past year (over this past month the BLS has significantly revised their numbers downward). On the following graph, the blue line is ADP whilst the red line is the BLS’ numbers. Likely the ADP management are giving each other high fives. 99,000 is not a great number but it is not recessionary either. An adequate monthly employment growth number would be at least 150,000 to account for population growth. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP added:

The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth. The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown.

NFIB’s August 2024 jobs report found that 40% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in August, up two points from July. Labor quality as the top small business operating problem rose two points from July to 21%, the highest level reported since January of this year. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Job openings on Main Street remain historically high as small business owners continue to lament the lack of qualified applicants for their open positions. Owners have grown understandably frustrated as attempts to fill their workforce repeatedly stall and cost pressures continue to rise.

U.S.-based employers announced 75,891 cuts in August 2024, a 193% increase from the 25,885 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 1% from the 75,151 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. For the year, companies have announced 536,421 job cuts, down 3.7% from 557,057 announced through August of last year. Excluding the 115,762 job cuts announced in August of 2020, last month was the highest August total since 2009, when 76,456 layoffs were recorded. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. added:

August’s surge in job cuts reflects growing economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics. Companies are facing a variety of pressures, from rising operational costs to concerns about a potential economic slowdown, leading them to make tough decisions about workforce management. Cuts are following a very similar trend from last year as ongoing pressures have challenged labor decisions.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7 percent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024 with unit labor costs growing 0.3% year-over-year. Whenever productivity grows faster than labor costs – companies are becoming more competitive internationally. Unfortunately, the methodology used for determining productivity bears little resemblance to the methodology used by industrial engineers – and my best guess is productivity gains are a result of AI gains in the service industry or in the financial sector. According to this report, manufacturing labor productivity increased only 0.4% year-over-year while unit labor costs increased a massive 4.3% year-over-year.

In the week ending August 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 230,000, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 231,500 to 231,750. No sign of economic slowing in these unemployment numbers.

In August 2024, the Institute of Supply Management’s Services PMI® registered 51.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than July’s figure of 51.4 percent. The reading in August marked the sixth time the composite index has been in expansion territory in 2024. The Business Activity Index registered 53.3 percent in August, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent recorded in July and indicated continuing expansion after one month of contraction in June. As the US is a service based economy, a reading so close to 50 (the line between expansion and contraction) means real economic growth is marginal.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Billions Being Pumped Into Unproven “Climate Solutions”
U.S. Cracks Down on Russian Disinformation Campaign
The World’s 10 Most Expensive Megaprojects
Africa’s Largest Refinery Could Soon Be Allowed to Set Its Own Gasoline Prices
Singapore Raises Its Clean Power Import Target as Demand Soars
Russia Ships LNG Straight to Storage as Sanctions Bite
Dow falls 200 points, S&P 500 posts third straight loss as growth fears plague investors: Live updates
Friday’s jobs report for August is going to be huge. Here’s what to expect
The Fed won’t save stocks, sell the first rate cut, says Stifel
Family offices are about to surpass hedge funds, with $5.4 trillion in assets by 2030
Rising NFL valuations mean massive returns for owners. Here’s how good the investment is
After its August selloff, the U.S. dollar may face more downside risk ahead
2-, 10-year Treasury yields finish at lowest levels in more than a year again after ADP payrolls report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 5, 2024

By Sig Silber September 5, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 05 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 05 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 07 2024

…Very heavy rain and the threat for scattered to numerous instances of
flash flooding continues for the Gulf Coast states the next couple of
days…

…Dangerous heat wave intensifies over the Southwest and West Coast…

Heavy rain and flash flooding remain in the forecast along the Gulf Coast
as a stationary front and coastal low drive multiple days of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region. The elongated area of low
pressure and front from the north-central to western Gulf will keep the
greatest focus for repeated rounds of storms moving onshore over the
central Gulf Coast and upper Texas Gulf Coast today (Thursday),
potentially spreading a bit further northward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Very moist Gulf air continues to contribute to very efficient
downpours with these storms, approaching 2-3″ per hour in some cases,
exacerbating the threat for heavy totals and flash flooding. There is now
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall for southeastern
Louisiana where prior days rainfall has lead to very wet antecedent
conditions and brings a locally greater threat for scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding, especially for the urban areas around greater
New Orleans. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in place across the
region for additional scattered instances of flash flooding. An
approaching upper-level wave will help to shift the focus for heavy
rainfall a bit eastward on Friday as the front begins to meander away from
the western Gulf and lift northward into southern Georgia, leading to
decreasing rain chances further West. Another Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall extends from the central Gulf Coast eastward through the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia where a similar threat for intense heavy
downpours with repeated rounds of storms will lead to several inches of
rain, and the potential for scattered instances of flash flooding.
Temperatures will remain well below average across the region north of the
frontal boundary and in the presence of widespread rain and cloud cover
with mostly upper 70s and low 80s. Some locations may only reach into the
low 70s Friday. On the other hand, it will be hot south of the front
across the Florida Peninsula, with highs in the low 90s. A Heat Advisory
is in place for South Florida where the combination of heat and humidity
will lead to heat indices in the 105-110 degree range.

A dangerous heat wave will intensify over the Southwest and West Coast the
next couple of days with a strong upper-level ridge now settled over the
region. Forecast high temperatures Thursday and Friday range from the 110s
for the Desert Southwest, low 100s to near 110 for southern California,
mid-100s for the central California Valleys, and the 90s to low 100s for
central/northern California and into the Pacific Northwest. Several
record-tying/breaking highs are possible across the Pacific Northwest.
Widespread heat-related warnings and advisories are in place given the
heightened threat for heat-related illness to anyone without efficient air
conditioning or adequate hydration. While not quite as hot, highs will be
well above average and potentially uncomfortable even for some immediate
coastal locations with temperatures reaching into the 80s.

Elsewhere, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected ahead of
a pair of cold fronts passing through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
Central Plains, and central/southern High Plains and adjacent Rockies. The
greatest chance for some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be under
the influence of an upper-level trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
and where upslope flow enhances storms over the southern Rockies. A few
isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible in the southern
Rockies given recent rains and some more sensitive burn scars. Storm
chances with moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue ahead of the
front as it pushes eastward through the Great Lakes overnight Thursday and
into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Friday. Some storms may
begin to spread into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by early Saturday
morning. Temperature-wise, the passing cold front will bring well below
average, Fall-like temperatures to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will be rather
chilly for the Upper Great Lakes by Friday as highs drop into the 50s.
Conditions will be much warmer ahead of the front Thursday over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. The
approaching front will bring temperatures down into the 70s for portions
of the Midwest Friday. Mild conditions will continue for much of the East
Coast through Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

04 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Wall Street Market’s Sell-Off Continues As The Three Major Indexes Trended Downward, Closing Mixed

By Gary Hall September 4, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.09%,
Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
Gold $2,524 up $0.60,
WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $1.46,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.761 down 0.083 points,
USD index $101.33 down $0.50,
Bitcoin $57,997 up $467 or 0.81%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced a mixed trading session on Wednesday, following a steep sell-off the previous day driven by concerns about economic growth and the artificial intelligence sector. Nvidia shares dropped more than 1% after reports of an intensified antitrust probe by US regulators. The previous day saw Nvidia lose $279 billion in market value, indicating waning confidence in the AI boom that has driven much of this year’s gains. Job openings fell to 7.67 million in July, the lowest level since January 2021. This data suggested a cooling labor market, prompting bond yields to fall. Markets now price in a nearly 50% chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of its September meeting, up from 38% the previous day. The two-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 10 basis points to 3.79%, its lowest level of 2024. Despite the mixed performance, investors are bracing for potential volatility in September, historically a challenging month for markets. Analysts suggest that stocks may face continued uncertainty following a turbulent August.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

A summary of the US trade situation in July 2024 is that imports are increasing (blue line in the graph below), exports are little changed (red line in the graph below) – so the trade balance continues to worsen (green line in the graph below). With our manufacturing in a recession and generally not competitive internationally – how will the US trade situation improve over the long term?

In July 2024, the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million (6.7 million if you exclude government which is the red line on the graph below) and was down by 1.1 million over the year. This information is lifted from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report. As one can see from the red line on the graph below. there is a correlation between job openings and private employment growth (which is the blue line on the graph below). The bottom line is that since job opening are modestly trending down, I expect jobs growth to also modestly trend down. However, I still expect a good jobs growth going forward in the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month.

The August 2024 Beige Book is worth a read. The Beige Book is an informal survey of “contacts” by each of the Federal Reserve Districts. Note that it is poor in identifying recessions, but this month’s Beige Book is describing a stalling (or already stalled) US economy.

Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period. Employment levels were steady overall, though there were isolated reports that firms filled only necessary positions, reduced hours and shifts, or lowered overall employment levels through attrition. Still, reports of layoffs remained rare. On balance, wage growth was modest, while increases in nonlabor input costs and selling prices ranged from slight to moderate. Consumer spending ticked down in most Districts, having generally held steady during the prior reporting period. Auto sales continued to vary by District, with some noting increases in sales and others reporting slowing sales because of elevated interest rates and high vehicle prices. Manufacturing activity declined in most Districts, and two Districts noted that these declines were part of ongoing contractions in the sector. Residential construction and real estate activity were mixed, though most Districts’ reports indicated softer home sales. Likewise, reports on commercial construction and real estate activity were mixed. District contacts generally expected economic activity to remain stable or to improve somewhat in the coming months, though contacts in three Districts anticipated slight declines.

Labor Markets

Employment levels were generally flat to up slightly in recent weeks. Five Districts saw slight or modest increases in overall headcounts, but a few Districts reported that firms reduced shifts and hours, left advertised positions unfilled, or reduced headcounts through attrition—though accounts of layoffs remained rare. Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook. Accordingly, candidates faced increasing difficulties and longer times to secure a job. As competition for workers has eased and staff turnover has fallen, firms felt less pressure to increase wages and salaries. On balance, wages rose at a modest pace, in line with the slowing trend described in recent reports. Skilled tradespeople and other workers with specialized skills remained in short supply and continued to see stronger wage increases, as did those in unions.

Prices

On balance, prices increased modestly in the most recent reporting period. However, three Districts reported only slight increases in selling prices. Nonlabor input cost increases were largely described as modest to moderate and as generally easing, though one District described input cost increases as ticking up. A number of Districts observed that both freight and insurance costs continued to increase. By contrast, some Districts noted that cost pressures moderated for food, lumber, and concrete. Looking ahead, contacts generally expected price and cost pressures to stabilize or ease further in the coming months.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

The High Cost of Cheap Chinese Imports
India Proposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Aluminum Foil
Rare Metals Prices Surge As China Restricts Exports
Citi Reiterates $60 Oil Price Forecast Amid “Bearish Trend”
OPEC+ Discusses Delaying Supply Boost After Oil Price Crash
S&P 500 books back-to-back losses as Wall Street grapples with a rocky start to September: Live updates
Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening
U.S. Steel shares plunge on report White House preparing to block Nippon Steel takeover
Bitcoin recovers from overnight sell-off that pushed it below $56,000: CNBC Crypto World
Nvidia shares up after plunge that wiped out nearly $300 billion in market cap
Fracking led the U.S. to pump more oil than any country in history — here’s what that means for the green energy transition
2-, 10-year Treasury yields end at lowest levels since 2023 on fears of weakening economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 4, 2024

By Sig Silber September 4, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 04 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 04 2024 – 12Z Fri Sep 06 2024

…Heat wave builds over the Southwest and the West Coast this week…

…Heavy rain and flash flood potential continues for the Gulf Coast
states the next couple of days…

An upper-level ridge building northward over the West Coast will help to
expand and intensify a heat wave over the region through the next few
days. Forecast highs today (Wednesday) range from the upper 100s to
mid-110s in the Desert Southwest, the mid-90s to low 100s for southern and
central California, and the mid-90s to low 100s for portions of the
Pacific Northwest. Temperatures soar even higher on Thursday, with highs
into the 110s for the Desert Southwest, the 100s to near 110 in southern
California, the mid-100s for the central California Valleys, and the low
100s for portions of the Pacific Northwest. Widespread heat-related
warnings and advisories are in place as the threat for heat-related
illness and impacts will increase today and especially on Thursday. This
heat will be dangerous to anyone without effective air conditioning or
sufficient hydration. While not quite as hot, temperatures will also be
well above average along the immediate Pacific Coast, with highs into the
80s for many locations.

Heavy rain and the threat for flash flooding will remain in the forecast
for the Gulf Coast states this week as a stationary front and coastal low
drive multiple days of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
region. The placement of the elongated area of low pressure in the western
Gulf will keep the focus for the most widespread rainfall over portions of
the central and upper Texas Gulf Coasts, and possibly a bit further north
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Extremely moist Gulf air will lead to
very heavy downpours (upwards of 2-3″ per hours rates) with continued
rounds of storms moving onshore. Forecast areal average rainfall totals
are in the 3-5″ range, with locally higher amounts of 7″+ possible, most
likely near the immediate coast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) is in place for the region both today and tomorrow given the
threat for scattered instances of flash flooding. Storms will also
increase along the southeastern Atlantic Coast today and Thursday, and
daily thunderstorm chances will continue for the Florida Peninsula. The
passage of the frontal boundary to the coast and widespread storms and
clouds will keep temperatures down across Texas and the Southeast the next
couple of days, with highs generally in the 80s. Conditions will be hotter
south of the boundary in Florida with temperatures into the 90s. A Heat
Advisory is in place for South Florida today as the combination of highs
into the 90s and high humidity will lead to heat indices in the 105-110
degree range.

Elsewhere, much of the eastern U.S. outside of the the South will be dry
with generally mild temperatures. Early Fall-like highs in the 70s are
expected throughout New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas through
Thursday. An upper-level ridge passing over the Midwest will bring
temperatures back up into the mid- to upper 80s over the next couple of
days. An approaching upper-level trough/surface frontal system will bring
shower and thunderstorm chances to portions of the Central/Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest today, with the greatest storm coverage and chance for
some more moderate rainfall in the Upper Midwest and the central High
Plains/adjacent Rockies. The frontal system will push further
southeastward on Thursday, bringing storm chances to the Great Lakes,
Central Plains, and central/southern High Plains/adjacent Rockies. Once
again, the greatest storm coverage and heavier rainfall will be focused to
the north over the Great Lakes and to the southwest over the
central/southern High Plains and adjacent Rockies. Some isolated flash
flooding will be possible over the southern Rockies given more sensitive
soils from recent rainfall and over any burn scars.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

03 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Slid Over 620 Points, Nasdaq Fell Over 3%, Markets Closed At Session Lows

By Gary Hall September 3, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 626 points or 1.51%,
Nasdaq closed down 3.26%,
S&P 500 closed down 2.12%,
Gold $2,524 down $3.50,
WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $3.23,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.842 down 0.069 points,
USD index $101.79 up $0.14,
Bitcoin $58,097 down $1,040 or 1.76%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

Investors started September with a sharp downturn in the stock market, as major indices fell significantly on Tuesday. This decline is partly attributed to the performance of Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks, which led the tech sector downwards. Nvidia fell nearly 10% due to investor concerns following a less-than-expected earnings report and uncertainties about the AI market’s future. Other chip stocks, including Broadcom, Qualcomm, and TSMC, also saw declines of over 6%.The market’s volatility comes amid a crucial week for economic data, with a significant focus on the upcoming monthly jobs report. This report could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts, with traders currently pricing in a 39% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Additionally, a recent report from the Institute for Supply Management indicated a slight uptick in manufacturing activity, though it still suggests a contraction in the sector.Investors are also wary of potential data shocks or surprises related to the presidential race, contributing to the traditionally challenging month of September for markets.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during July 2024 is 6.7% above July 2023 – down from 7.2% the previous month. Spending on private construction was up 6.3% year-over-year – down from 7.2% the previous month. Public construction spending was up 8.1% year-over-year – up from 7.2% the previous month. Still, construction is a bright spot in the economy but its growth rates seems to be moderating.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI^® registered 47.2 percent in August 2024, up 0.4 percentage point from the 46.8 percent recorded in July. The bottom line is that the manufacturing sector remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

North America LNG Exports to Double As Qatar Wins WIth Long-Term Contracts
Central Asian Republics Aim for $2 Billion in Bilateral Trade
Volkswagen’s 87-Year Streak of German Production Hangs in the Balance
Expanded Trans Mountain Upends North American Oil Flows and Pipeline Tolls
Oil Prices Plunge on OPEC+ Production Cut Speculation
Dow closes 600 points lower to begin September, S&P 500 drops 2%: Live updates
Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown
Nvidia plunges almost 10%, dragging basket of chip stocks to worst day since March 2020
The jobs report is back as the king of all economic releases
Bitcoin dips to $57,000 level and crypto stocks tumble to begin September trading: CNBC Crypto World
Homebuyer’s Down Payment Hits ‘Record High,’ Surging Nearly 15 Percent In A Year
Treasury yields end lower after soft U.S. manufacturing data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.