Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies on Wednesday and over the southern Mid-Atlantic
and Southern Rockies on Thursday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and New England Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast…A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains will move slowly off the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Also, on Friday, the southern
half of the boundary will linger near the Southeast and across the Gulf
Coast States. The boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and a minimal threat for hail and tornadoes.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.A Second area of heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, a third area of heavy rain will develop near the boundary over
parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies through Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars the most vulnerable.Furthermore, moisture over the Southwest and daytime heating will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest late
afternoon into late evening. Additionally, on Wednesday, upper-level
impulses and tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southeast.On Thursday, as the front moves southeastward, showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic
from Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes.The showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.A second area of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains as moisture interacts with
upper-level impulses. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars the most vulnerable.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Wednesday into Friday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A second
area of heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat
Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic to parts of New England. On
Wednesday, the near-record temperatures and high humidity suggest Major to
Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East. Extremely dangerous
and potentially deadly heat, particularly for urban areas in the Southeast
and East Coast, are forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the
East Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief
from the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration. However, a strong cold front will bring
relief as it sweeps across most of the Eastern U.S. from Wednesday into
Thursday. This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms could be severe, especially in the Northeast.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024 were up 0.2% year-over-year but down significantly from last month’s 3.2%. If you adjust for inflation, retail sales contracted. My numbers are different from the headline view as I do not use seasonally adjusted data which shows sales of $703.6 billion in June 2024 vs $$702.2 billion in June 2023 [you do not need to seasonally adjust data if you are using year-over-year comparisons]. The major declines were in motor vehicle sales and building materials. These are two sectors which decline early in a recession. This is not good news economically.
Import prices increased from 1.4% year-over-year in May to 1.6% in June 2024. Export prices increased from 0.5% year-over-year in May to 0.7% in June 2024. Like a broken record, I keep warning readers that the underlying inflation dynamics is growing – and the end to inflationary pressures is not within eyesight.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Jul 18 2024…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on
Tuesday and the Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains roughly eastward to the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday and the Southern Rockies, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Central
Appalachians on Wednesday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Gulf
Coast…A front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains will move slowly to the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians across the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and then into the Southern Plains by Thursday. The boundary will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.A Second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of
the Central High Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Southern High Plains roughly eastward to the Ohio
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains eastward
to the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, moisture over the Southwest and diurnal heating will produce
late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies. Furthermore, on
Tuesday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast eastward to the
Southeast.On Wednesday, as the front moves eastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachian, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal
threat of hail and tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.Areas along the front will produce heavy rain over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
adjacent parts of the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.A second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Central
Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.In addition, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will extend northwestward
into the Southern Rockies, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Rockies from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Also, on Wednesday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to the
Southeast. Further, moisture over the Southwest and the Central/Southern
Rockies, along with diurnal heating, will produce late afternoon into late
evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies. Furthermore, on Wednesday,
upper-level energy moving over parts of the Pacific Northwest will produce
rain with embedded thunderstorms over the area.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Tuesday into Thursday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The developing
heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Southern Plains to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Gulf Coast. A second area of Excessive
Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic
to parts of New England. The near-record temperatures and high humidity
suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East,
Tuesday and Wednesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are
forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the East Coast, and
numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The July 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index was little changed at -6.6. New orders remained steady, while shipments inched just slightly higher. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes on
Monday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern
Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast and over portions of the Central
High Plains on Tuesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday and the Middle
Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley on Tuesday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of
the Western Ohio Valley/Western Tennessee Valley…A front extending from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Northern Plains will move to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley across the Middle Mississippi Valley and trail off into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. A wave of low pressure over the Northern
Plains will move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening,
bringing the cold front northward into the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. On Monday, the boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there
is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater, mainly over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio
Valley.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Furthermore, on Monday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over the Southwest and
diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies.On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces slightly. As the
front moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, as the western end of the front moves across the Central High
Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Central High Plains from
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Also, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast. Further, moisture over the
Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies, along with diurnal heating,
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.Meanwhile, a flat upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East part of the country. The developing heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Western Ohio
Valley/Western Tennessee Valley. The near-record temperatures and high
humidity suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the
East, Monday and Tuesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are forecast
for Monday and Tuesday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East
Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from
the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024….There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday and the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday……Dangerous and record-breaking heat begins to build across the Central
Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast…A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes to
the Northern Plains will move to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley
and trail off into the Northern High Plains by Monday. A wave of low
pressure over the Northern Plains will move northeastward into Ontario,
Canada, by Tuesday, bringing the cold front into the Great Lakes to the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. The boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail
two inches or greater, mainly over parts of the Northern Plains.Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and
tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the
Western Gulf Coast eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over
the Southwest and diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late
evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.On Monday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper Midwest
will pull the front back over parts of the Great Lakes, creating showers
and severe thunderstorms in some parts of the area. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday through
Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Also, upper-level impulses will create showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers
and thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast.Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great Basin/Southwest
into the Central/Southern Rockies will weaken, allowing heat to expand
over portions of the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday into Tuesday.
Confidence is increasing in extremely dangerous, potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast beginning
Monday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East Coast, and
numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.
Confounding can be an issue in analyzing the association between quantities of money and inflation. In this post, we look more closely at a possible example of confounding.
Photo by Daniele Levis Pelusi on Unsplash.
“Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).”
So we are really in ENSO Neutral but NOAA may not want to admit their forecast was wrong so they present it this way. It is correct that we are in La Nina Watch but it is also correct that we currently remain in ENSO Neutral..
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA now describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: La Nino Watch”
The exact timing of the transition is now less clear which should decrease the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.
We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.
>
| The second paragraph is what is important:
“Compared to the previous month, the most recent IRI plume delayed the emergence of La Niña to September-November 2024, with La Niña then persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The forecast team is also favoring a delayed development of La Niña this month, but is anticipating the transition to occur earlier (August-October). This is, in part, supported by the continuation of below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and near-term forecasts suggesting a resurgence of easterly wind anomalies in July. In summary, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).” Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. “The most recent IRI plume indicates La Niña may develop during July-September 2024 and then persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The forecast team is also favoring the development of La Niña during July-September because the rate of cooling has slowed since last month. The team still favors La Niña to emerge sometime during the summer months, given the persistent below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January; “ |
Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. JJA stands for June/July/August.
Here is the current release of the probabilities:
| This chart shows the forecast progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina. This kind of bar chart is not very good at showing uncertainty. |
| The analysis this month and last month are a bit different with again the transition to La Nina being slower than thought last month. This seems to be a trend. I am not sure that we will actually have a La Nina. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Sunday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northern
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday……Dangerous and record-breaking heat will continue for much of the West
through Saturday, while sizzling temperatures will also begin to build
across the Central Plains and Southeast...A weak front with tropical moisture will be quasi-stationary over parts of
the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary as the tropical
moisture produces heavy rain over parts of the Easter Seaboard. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.In addition, on Saturday, a front over the Northern Plains will move
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and extending
into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday. The boundary will produce showers
and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail
two inches or greater over parts of the Northern High Plains.Moreover, upper-level energy and tropical moisture over the Western and
Central Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore,
moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of California and weak
upper-level energy will aid in producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and Southwest.On Sunday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper Midwest
will move from Montana to North Dakota, creating showers and severe
thunderstorms in parts of the area. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains
into Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Western Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Moisture over the Southwest and diurnal heating
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great Basin/Southwest
into the Central/Southern Rockies will allow an extremely dangerous heat
wave to persist over the area. The upper-level ridging will produce a near
all-time high temperature record, and heat will continue over portions of
the Southwest through Sunday. This long-duration heat wave remains
extremely dangerous and deadly if not taken seriously. Dozens of daily
record high temperatures are forecast over much of the West through
Sunday. Hazardous heat will expand in coverage over portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Sunday and Monday.