EconCurrents

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 22, 2024

By Sig Silber September 22, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 22 2024 – 12Z Tue Sep 24 2024

…A low pressure wave will bring showers and possible severe weather
across the central High Plains this morning…

…Rounds of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected to stretch
from the south-central Plains through the mid-Mississippi Valley, Midwest,
and into the Ohio Valley for the next couple of days…

…Locally heavy rain and strong thunderstorms moving across the interior
Mid-Atlantic this morning…

Much of the active weather for the next couple of days will continue to be
focused in the vicinity of a slow-moving frontal boundary stretching from
the south-central Plains through the mid-Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and
into the Ohio Valley. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to
traverse the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles early this morning, and then
weaken during the day as they move farther east. Rounds of heavy rain and
embedded thunderstorms can also be found this morning across the central
Plains into the Midwest, followed by addition showers and thunderstorms
forming and moving across Lower Michigan during the day today.

By Monday, a low pressure wave is forecast to organize along the front and
move northeast across the south-central Plains. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms can be expected to accompany the low as well as the frontal
boundary. By Tuesday morning, showers and embedded strong thunderstorms
are expected to move across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley as the low
pressure center tracks across the region.

Across the interior Mid-Atlantic, a subtle upper-level disturbance is
delivering a round of heavy rain with strong to locally severe
thunderstorms moving from north to south this morning. Meanwhile, recent
wet weather in the vicinity of Cape Cod is lingering into this morning.
As the slow-moving coastal cyclone begins to slide further out into the
Atlantic, the rain is forecast to end during the day today.

The high-elevation of central Colorado is waking up to some wet snow due
to an influx of colder air associated with the upper low. The upper low
will lift into the southern Plains, allowing much of the western U.S. to
remain dry for the next couple of days with near normal temperatures.
Colder air will surge down the Plains behind the front but 90s will be
common in the afternoon across the South into the interior eastern U.S.
ahead of the front.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Midwest Drought Update – Published on September 21, 2024

By Sig Silber September 21, 2024weatherNo Comments

Before we get started on this, I want to include the key graphic from the Updated Four Season Outlook that we discussed HERE yesterday.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the full article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 21, 2024

By Sig Silber September 21, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 21 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 21 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 23 2024

…Threat of heavy rainfall and severe weather will be focused across the
central U.S. and into Midwest for the next couple of days…

…A slow-moving coastal storm will bring another rainy day today across
southeastern New England and coastal flooding during high tides for the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast…

…Much below normal temperatures surge into the central High Plains on
Sunday as above average temperatures shift east from the Plains into the
Ohio and Mississippi Valley…

Most of the active weather for the next couple of days will be focused
across the central U.S. and will slowly shift east into the Midwest by
Monday morning. This is in response to a vigorous upper-level low
pressure system that will swing across the Southwest today and then
interact with a surge of cool air down from western Canada. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop quickly later today across the southern High
Plains where severe weather will be possible as a cold front surges south
and clashes with warm and moist air lifted northward by the upper low. By
Saturday night into Sunday, the main activities will then gradually shift
east across the central Plains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley as low
pressure waves form along the front. Sunday into Monday morning will see
the potential of heavy rain shifting farther east into the Midwest and
toward the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, colder air behind the system will
change the rain into wet snow across the higher elevations of Colorado
Rockies Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms can also be expected farther north near/behind the cold
front across the northern Plains today, into the upper Midwest tonight,
followed by the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday
morning.

Temperatures will fall precipitously on the backside of the cold front
over portions of the southern High Plains and central Plains beginning
Saturday. High temperatures in the 50s will represent 15 to 30 degree
departures from average for the aforementioned areas. Above average
temperatures will be in place across the Midwest and Southeast this
weekend as upper-level ridging extending from Mexico into Texas remains in
place. Elsewhere, a slow-moving coastal storm will bring another rainy
day across southeastern New England with coastal flooding during high
tides for the northern Mid-Atlantic coast for today before the storm
slowly moves out into the Atlantic on Sunday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

20Sep2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Mixed After Yesterday’s Record Close

By Gary Hall September 20, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.09%,
Nasdaq closed down 0.36%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
Gold $2,647 up $31.90,
WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.18,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.739 down 0.001 points,
USD index $100.79 up $0.18,
Bitcoin $62,928 down $16 or 0.03%,
Baker Hughes Rig Count down 2 to 588

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks closed mixed on Friday as the initial enthusiasm for potential rate cuts faded. Investors had initially embraced Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message about interest rate cuts, but concerns about economic risks and potential market bubbles tempered enthusiasm. Despite the muted action, the major averages still ended the week in positive territory. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Managed to stay above 42,000, eking out another record close. The market’s rally slowed as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts. Traders are pricing in deeper cuts this year than policymakers’ projections, according to Fed Funds futures. Concerns about potential risks to economic growth persisted. Shares spiked nearly 8% following reports that Qualcomm had approached the company about a potential takeover – stock fell about 4% after the takeover approach news. FedEx shares slumped after reporting a sharp drop in profit, missing Wall Street estimates. Nike stock jumped after naming a new CEO amid pressure on sales.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

no releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

The State of Joe Sixpack in 2Q2024: Most Households Are Worse Off Than They Were One Year Ago
Canada’s Role in Global Energy Supply Critical for U.S., Says RBC Chief
Oil, Gas Drilling Stalls in U.S.
Gazprom Accelerates Pipeline Gas Transports to China
3-Mile-Long Freight Trains Cause Traffic Nightmares in Texas
Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant to Restart Following Microsoft Agreement
Russia Boosts Use of Sanctioned Tankers to Export Its Oil
Tensions Between Israel and Hezbollah Reach Fever Pitch
Intel shares pop on report Qualcomm has approached it about takeover
The big post-Fed rally could get tested in week ahead: ‘A lot holds in the balance’ of the next few days
China-Mexico freight traffic surges in Trump, Biden tariff era, as companies find ways to evade U.S. trade war
Georgia Election Board Approves Rule Requiring Hand Count Of Ballots
The Fed rate cut scared me. Where should I invest my $127,000 in savings now?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on September 19, 2024 – Similar to the Outlook Issued last Month but the potential La Nina is Downgraded – Posted on September 20, 2024

By Sig Silber September 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina is challenging to predict. We are now in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario soon, but the strength of the La Nina may be fairly weak..

From the NOAA discussion:

“The most recent International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. This month, the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) guidance was relied upon, which predicts La Niña to emerge in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The continuation of negative subsurface temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the formation of a weak La Nina. In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in SON (71% chance) and is expected to persist through JFM 2025.”

“However, chances of a moderate to strong La Niña are currently less than 50% through the Fall and Winter. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to re-emerge by the February-April (FMA) 2025 season.”

I personally would not have total confidence in this outlook given the uncertainty about there actually being a La Nina and its strength if it does happen. I do not have the JAMSTEC outlook yet but for sure they will lean towards a weak La Nina with Modoki characteristics. I do not have a lot of confidence that NOAA knows how to deal with a La Nina Modoki. But they may have it exactly correct.

Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for October

It will be updated on the last day of August.

Then we look at a graphic that shows both the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are dissimilar. This tells us that November and December will be substantially different than October.

–

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through October/November/December of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for October and the three-month period October/November/December Small maps are provided beyond that through October/November/December of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 20, 2024

By Sig Silber September 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 20 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 20 2024 – 12Z Sun Sep 22 2024

…Severe thunderstorm threat will shift from the upper Midwest this
morning to the southern High Plains by Saturday night/early Sunday…

…Rainy weather lingers over southeastern New England…

…A moderate to heavy rain event developing this weekend from the central
High Plains eastward toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley…

…Much above average temperatures through the mid-section of the country
and into Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…

A cold/occluded frontal system clashing with a weak warm front will
continue to support formation of strong to severe thunderstorms across the
upper Midwest early this morning. These thunderstorms will generally lose
intensity as they move into the Great Lakes through the rest of today.
The relatively fast motion of the front will limit rainfall amounts.
However, there is still the potential for isolated heavy totals, that
could result in localized flooding, especially over urbanized regions.

The deep low pressure system associated with the fronts are moving farther
away into central Canada. There will not be much temperature relief in
the wake of the fronts from the much above average temperatures currently
stretching across the Plains into the mid- to upper Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes. These regions will continue to see some late summer heat
over the next two days. An Alberta clipper will take shape and will then
usher in a fresh dose of cool air from western Canada through the northern
Rockies followed by northern Plains this weekend.

There is not expected to be large areas of heavy rains across the lower 48
over the next two days. Exceptions will be across southeastern New
England where a slow-moving low off the southeast New England coast will
keep conditions wet Friday and Saturday. Showery weather will also likely
to persist across South Florida where tropical moisture will bring the
potential for localized heavy rains and isolated urban flash flooding from
daily thunderstorms.

A strong mid to upper level low moving onshore into the central to
southern California coast will be pressing eastward for the next couple of
days across the Southwest and into the Four Corners region. There is not
expected to be any large areas of precipiation associated with this strong
mid to upper level low across central to southern California into the
Southwest. However, during Saturday, higher levels of moisture are
expected to be transported northward ahead of the mid to upper level low
into the central to southern Rockies and southern High Plains as the
moisture begins to interact with a surge of cool air from the north. This
interaction will initiate an increasingly large precipitation event, first
across portions of the central to Southern Rockies on Saturday, then
expanding eastward Saturday evening/night into the central Plains and
lower Missouri Valley, and then toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley early on
Sunday. In addition, the potential of severe thunderstorms will increase
later on Saturday into early Sunday over the southern High Plains ahead of
a cold front and a dry line. In addition, cold air behind the front will
change the rain to wet snow over the Colorado Rockies early on Sunday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

19 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Market’s Opened Sharply Higher Pushing The Dow And The S&P 500 To New Historic And Closing Highs

By Gary Hall September 19, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 522 points or 1.26%, (Closed at 42,025, New Historic high 42,161)
Nasdaq closed up 2.51%,
S&P 500 closed up 1.70%, (Closed at 5,714, New Historic high 5,734)
Gold $2,613 up $14.70,
WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.10,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.719 up 0.032 points,
USD index $100.63 up $0.03,
Bitcoin $63,258 up $1,519 or 2.46%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 42,000 for the first time in history, marking a significant milestone. The S&P 500 also surged to record highs. This rally was primarily driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rate cut in over four years and growing optimism that the Fed’s rate cut will lead to a “soft landing” for the US economy. Strong performance from tech stocks, particularly the “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla). Positive economic data, including lower-than-expected jobless claims. The market’s reaction suggests investors are interpreting the Fed’s rate cut as a sign of confidence rather than panic about current economic conditions. Some analysts have revised their forecasts, with Bank of America now expecting further rate cuts by year-end. BMO Capital Markets raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,100, the highest among tracked strategists, citing surprising market strength and expectations of a soft landing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2% in August 2024 to 100.2 (2016=100), following an unrevised 0.6% decline in July. Over the six-month period between February and August 2024, the LEI fell by 2.3%, a smaller rate of decline than the 2.7% drop over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board perspective:

In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline. The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index. Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.

The September 2024 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed that the general activity rose from -7.0 to 1.7 while the indexes for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. To me, new orders and shipments mean that the manufacturing sector is in a recession.

Existing-home sales declined 4.2% year-over-year in August 2024. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $416,700, up 3.1% from one year ago ($404,200). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months. The home-buying process, from the initial search to getting the house keys, typically takes several months.

In the week ending September 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 227,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 230,750 to 231,000. No evidence of a recession in these numbers.

According to CoreLogic, Single-family rental prices increased 2.8% year over year in July 2024, down slightly from last month. Rental prices for low-end properties dropped -0.2%, while high-end properties saw rental prices increase 2.9% year over year. The perspective of Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic:

On the surface, single-family rent growth in July could be characterized as ‘average,’ with the annual and monthly national changes roughly equal to long-term levels. However, a deeper look reveals that rent changes slowed at the lowest end of the market, dropping 0.2% in July from a year earlier. While this drop might be due to a strong year-ago comparison, it is most likely a welcome relief to renters looking for rentals in the lower-priced end of the market.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

How Renewables Could Slash Oil and Gas Production Emissions by 80%
Biden’s Tariff Crackdown Upends Amazon and Walmart’s China Strategy
UK Cracks Down on Iranian Oil Tycoon’s London Entity
Rystad: Platform Electrification Could Slash Upstream Emissions by 86%
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Slumped to an 11-Month Low in July
European Carmakers Call for Urgent Action as EV Sales Crash
The Fed has set out on a ‘recalibration’ of policy. Here’s what Powell’s new buzzword means
Dow jumps 500 points, S&P 500 closes above 5,700 for the first time a day after Fed slashes rates: Live updates
August home sales drop more than expected, as prices set a new record
UAW warns of potential strikes at Ford, Stellantis a year after unprecedented work stoppages
Bitcoin pops to $63,000 as investors digest long-awaited rate cut: CNBC Crypto World
Oil Rally, Fueled By Fed, CTAs And Record Shorts, Has Room For More Gains
Interest rates held at 5% but ‘on the path down’
Why a recession still worries this stock-market veteran, despite the Fed’s rate cut
Treasury yields end at highest levels in up to 2 weeks after jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed’s factory gauge

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 19, 2024

By Sig Silber September 19, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 19 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 19 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 21 2024

…Severe thunderstorms possible in the eastern Plains and Upper Midwest
today…

…Late-summer heat forecast from the southern/central Plains to the Upper
Midwest…

The main weather story for the next couple of days will be a strong
occluded low and frontal system bringing impactful weather to the Plains
and Midwest. The central low will gradually lift north into southern
Canada today while it pushes a strong cold front across the eastern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Precipitation will taper off in Montana and the
northern Plains by this afternoon as the low moves farther away, and the
focus for precipitation will shift to areas ahead of the cold front. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop ahead of the cold
front today, and a wave of upper level energy moving over the Upper
Midwest will provide support for scattered severe thunderstorm development
this afternoon into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of the Upper Midwest and eastern portions of the central and
southern Plains with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/4).
Potential storm hazards will include a couple of tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, locally heavy rain in stronger
storms may result in isolated instances of flash flooding in the Upper
Midwest.

Showers and storms ahead of the cold front will push east into the Great
Lakes region on Friday, but the front will weaken as it becomes separated
from its parent low in Canada. Shower and storm chances will also linger
along the eastern seaboard as a low pressure system strengthens offshore
in the western Atlantic. The main low will remain parked southeast of Cape
Cod over the next few days while a slow-moving cold front extends
southwest to the Florida Peninsula. Strong gusty winds will be possible
over the coastal waters in the vicinity of the central low, which has
prompted the issuance of Small Craft and Coastal Flood Advisories along
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts and Gale Warnings for
the offshore waters south of Cape Cod and Long Island. This system will
finally pull away from the East Coast by Sunday, which will result in
decreasing winds and precipitation chances.

Calmer weather is expected for the West today, with some lingering showers
and storms under an upper low in the Great Basin and California, then the
next round of unsettled weather will arrive with a southward moving
frontal system Friday and Saturday. Precipitation will spread from the
Northwest and northern Rockies south to the Four Corners Region by
Saturday, and some wintry precipitation will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Intermountain West. Precipitation chances will also
expand again across the Plains and portions of the Midwest late Friday
into Saturday as the frontal system pushes east of the Rockies.

Temperature-wise, late-summer heat will stick around in the Central U.S.
through the end of this week. Warm southerly flow will keep high
temperatures in the 80s and 90s from the southern/central Plains to the
Upper Midwest. Some areas in the southern Plains could see near record
highs today and Friday as highs approach 100 degrees. Above average
temperatures are also forecast for the Great Lakes and interior Northeast
underneath an upper level ridge. Temperatures in the West will remain
below normal over the next few days in the wake of the Plains system and
the upcoming late week frontal system. Temperatures in the East and
Southeast will be near normal with highs generally in the 70s and 80s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

18 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Fed’s Half Point Interest Cut Send The Dow And S&P 500 To New Highs, But Markets Pare Gains Moderately On The Red Side

By Gary Hall September 18, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 103 points or 0.25%, (Closed at 41,503, New Historic high 41.982)
Nasdaq closed down 0.31%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.29%, (Closed at 5,618, New Historic high 5,690)
Gold $2,575 down $17.00,
WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $1.21,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.713 up 0.071 points,
USD index $100.99 up $0.09,
Bitcoin $60,218 down $421 or 0.70%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5% on Wednesday, marking its first rate reduction since 2020. This decision was largely anticipated but exceeded some analysts’ expectations of a smaller 0.25% cut. Stocks initially rallied on the news but ended the session lower: The Fed cited increased confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. The decision signals a shift in the Fed’s aggressive stance to combat inflation, which had previously led to rates reaching two-decade highs. This rate cut comes as the Fed aims to balance economic growth concerns with ongoing efforts to control inflation. The market’s mixed reaction reflects uncertainty about the implications of this policy shift for the broader economy. [see more below on the rate cut]

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August 2024 were 6.5% below August 2023. Privately-owned housing starts 3.9% above August 2023. Privately-owned housing completions 30.2% above August 2023. To put this sector in perspective, housing completions are the highest seen since March 2007. Even permits are the highest seen since May 2007. In other words, this sector is one of the bright spots in today’s economy.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement for the meeting ending today indicates a significant shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, with the first rate cut in several years, reflecting growing confidence in the progress of inflation control while maintaining a cautious stance on future economic developments. Key points of this statement:

The economy continues to expand at a solid pace, although job gains have slowed. The unemployment rate has increased slightly but remains low overall
Inflation has made further progress towards the Committee’s 2% objective but is still somewhat elevated
The FOMC has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, setting it at 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee cites increased confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2% and judges that risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced
As always, the FOMC will continue to carefully assess incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate
The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities
The decision was not unanimous. Michelle W. Bowman voted against the action, preferring a smaller rate cut of 0.25 percentage points

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has released its latest economic projections for the United States economy. These projections suggest that the FOMC expects a gradual improvement in economic conditions, with inflation moving towards the 2% target over the next few years and a slight decrease in unemployment rates. The federal funds rate is projected to decrease gradually, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy in the coming years. Here’s a summary of the key points:

Economic Growth (GDP)
The median projection for real GDP growth:
2024: 1.5%
2025: 1.8%
2026: 1.9%
Longer run: 1.8%

Unemployment Rate
The median projection for the unemployment rate:
2024: 4.1%
2025: 4.1%
2026: 4.0%
Longer run: 4.0%

Inflation
The median projection for PCE inflation:
2024: 2.5%
2025: 2.2%
2026: 2.0%
Longer run: 2.0%

For core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy):

2024: 2.6%
2025: 2.3%
2026: 2.1%

Federal Funds Rate
The median projection for the federal funds rate:
2024: 5.1%
2025: 3.9%
2026: 3.4%
Longer run: 2.5%

The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach is a crucial gateway for international trade in the United States. It handles approximately 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the U.S. The container traffic data from these ports is often used as a leading indicator for economic trends as it can signal changes in consumer demand and retail activity and fluctuations in container counts can reflect broader economic cycles and global trade patterns. Well in August 2024. Import container counts are up 27% year-over-year – and stands as the third highest import level in history. Export container counts are up 4% year-over-year but remains in a long term decline. The bottom line is that import growth means that the economy is improving and as the industrial production is NOT growing – Americans desire for foreign goods is increasing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Oil Prices Rise on Jumbo Fed Rate Cut
Why the EU is Falling Behind in the Global AI Race
China’s Gasoline Exports Plunge 44% on Loss-Making Margins
Goldman Sachs: Iron Ore Prices to Fall to $85
Europe’s Natural Gas Demand and Inventories Rose in July
Russia’s Oil Revenues Have Dropped by 30% Since June
Fed meeting recap: Chair Jerome Powell defends central bank’s decision to go big with first cut
Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years
Dow closes lower, giving up 375-point pop after big Fed rate cut: Live updates
Traders got their big-rate-cut wish and markets still couldn’t rally
Bitcoin whipsaws after Fed cuts interest rates for the first time in four years: CNBC Crypto World
New Wave Of Blasts Rock Beirut For 2nd Day: Hand-Held Radios Explode, Over 300 Wounded
Treasury-bill rates tumble after Fed delivers biggest interest-rate cut in 16 years
Moody’s lifts outlook on four big regional banks to stable from negative

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 18, 2024

By Sig Silber September 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 18 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 18 2024 – 12Z Fri Sep 20 2024

…Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible in Montana today…

…Severe thunderstorms possible in the northern and central Plains and
Upper Midwest today and Thursday…

A strong occluded low will bring hazardous weather to Montana today as it
lingers over the state. Strong upslope flow along the northern Rockies on
the backside of the low will result in showers and thunderstorms with very
heavy rainfall totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is
in effect for portions of Montana where scattered flash flooding will be
possible. Wintry precipitation will also be possible in the high
elevations of the northern Rockies. In addition to precipitation hazards,
a strong pressure gradient in the vicinity of the central low will result
in strong, gusty winds across the region. High Wind Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Montana and Wyoming where winds are forecast
to be 30-40 mph with gusts up 60 mph. The low will gradually lift north
into southern Canada Thursday and Friday, and rain and winds will begin to
relax.

The strong low pressure system will also push a cold front across the
Plains and Upper Midwest through Friday. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will move east ahead of the cold front, and the environment
will support the development of scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest
with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) today and again on
Thursday. Potential severe storm hazards will include damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and a few tornadoes. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
expand into the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Friday
as the cold front continues to trek east.

Elsewhere, two coastal lows will sandwich the continental United States,
one moving south along the West Coast and one moving north along the East
Coast. The West Coast low will bring precipitation to the Northwest this
morning, then to the Great Basin and California later today into Thursday.
Precipitation will fall mainly in the form of showers and thunderstorms,
but some wintry precipitation will be possible in the Sierra Nevada. The
low will weaken on Friday, and precipitation will taper off. The East
Coast low will gradually deepen offshore of the Mid-Atlantic over the next
few days with a slow-moving frontal boundary extending southwest from the
low. Showers and storms will be possible for the Mid-Atlantic, coastal
Northeast, Southeast, and Florida. This system will also produce gusty
winds over the coastal waters, which has prompted Small Craft and Coastal
Flood Advisories along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Temperature-wise, the West will experience well below average temperatures
in the wake of the strong frontal system in the Plains, while the Central
U.S. experiences well above average temperatures with southerly flow ahead
of the Plains system. Highs over the next few days will only be in the 60s
and 70s for much of the West, while highs in the Plains and Midwest reach
the 80s and 90s. A few near-record high temperatures will be possible in
the southern Plains where highs will approach 100 degrees. Above average
temperatures will also be observed in the Northeast under an upper level
ridge, and near to slightly below normal temperatures will be observed in
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.