03Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Tumble As Facebook’s Earnings-Induced Rout Halts Tech Rebound, Nasdaq Falls 3.7%, S&P 500 Ends 2.4% Lower, Dow Closes Down 518 Points Halting A 4-Session Climb

Headlines:

Texas braces for cold snap as natgas pipelines freeze; power blackout concerns mount.
Amazon stock soars 18% in late trading after earnings top estimates.
U.S. oil prices top $90 a barrel for the first time since 2014.
Ford reports mixed fourth-quarter results as chip shortage eases.

Wall Street began today’s session opening sharply down. But, an adage says all gaps will be closed, so there is hope the Bull Run will continue later. Unfortunately, the session beginning got worse as the day rolled on, taking the tech equities with it.

Amazon reports a 9% sales increase in the fourth quarter and a big profit gain on Rivian stake. Also, in the news, Facebook stock plummets 26%, on pace for its biggest one-day drop ever. CNBC ProSantoli: Facebook’s fall is like ‘Marlboro Friday’ in 1993.

Economic releases today:

  • US Census reported that December 2021 inflation-adjusted manufactured goods new orders have had no growth year-over-year. Since July 2021, there has been little inflation-adjusted growth in this sector.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics says 4th quarter 2021 year-over-year growth has grown 2.0% whilst labor costs have increased by 3.1%. The bottom line is that labor costs are increasing faster than productivity. The NFIB’s Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated “Reports of owners raising compensation continues at record-high levels to attract applicants to their open positions.”

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

02Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stock Market Books Fourth Day Of Gains In Row As Tech Sector Climbs, DOW Closes Up 224 Points, NASDAQ Up 0.5%, S&P 500 Up 0.9%, USD $95.99

Headlines:
Massive winter storm grounds hundreds of flights across the U.S.
Facebook plummets 16% after missing across the board, guiding below expectations.
Spotify pukes to 21-month-lows after weak user growth guidance.
PayPal Pukes, Google Gains, Crypto Crokes, Dollar Dumps.
Small Caps remained ugly, down 1% on the day.

New investments from GM’s electric vehicles, to not reinstating the company’s dividend were the key takeaways from Q4 financial results and 2022 guidance.

Sigh! Another day, and yet another ugly macro data point, as ADP employment data crashed. Private payrolls fell by 301,000 in January, the most since the COVID-19 lockdown crisis in 2020. That print stole the jam out of the market’s Alphabet-driven overnight donut.

While Valentine’s Day is getting more expensive, going into debt isn’t sexy. As Americans recover from Covid’s financial strain, couples are less inclined to go into debt for a big, romantic gesture.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum will never become legal tenders: Finance Secretary. People investing in private crypto should understand that it does not have the government’s authorization. There is no guarantee that your investments will be successful or not, one may lose money, and the government is not responsible for this, he said.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

01Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Major Indexes Follow Monday’s Trend Line Higher, DOW Closes Up 273 Points, NASDAQ Up 0.8%, S&P 500 Up 0.7%

sHeadlines:

J.P. Morgan: ‘The Equity Market Selloff is Overdone.’
Gazprom’s Gas Exports Slump By 41% In January.
Tesla to recall FSD Beta software that let drivers slowly roll past stop signs .
U.S. Covid fatalities reach the highest level in a year as omicron cases subside.
Biden Flaunts The “Strongest Growth In Four Decades?”

Summary of Economic Releases Today:

  • CoreLogic says home prices increased by 18.5% year over year in December 2021.
  • According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December job openings were little changed whilst hires and total separations decreased to 6.3 million and 5.9 million, respectively. In short, this demonstrates the labor market continues to demonstrate that the skills mismatch is not growing and job-hopping is returning to historical levels.
  • US Census data show construction spending continues its improvement trend with the value of construction spending in 2021 increasing 8.2% over 2020.

Tesla recalls full self-driving vehicles not stopping at stop signs. According to NHTSA, Tesla will recall 53,822 of its vehicles that contain its Full Self-Driving (Beta) software because of a defect that may not allow the car to come to a complete stop at some intersections.

Stocks gain for a third day as the market’s comeback from the depths of the January sell-off continues. Boeing and DOW share the gains that contributed to the DOW’s jump. But, after a huge year of growth, some analysts say the U.S. economy is about to slam into a wall.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates Their February 2022 Outlook

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is February. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight as well as some interesting information on the change in Western streamflow median levels in the new climatology versus the prior climatology. This tells us how the past three decades have changed from the prior three decades. It is in line with what should be expected and is very interesting. It suggests that on average the West is drying out but I think I also see a secondary trend where it may be getting drier to the south and wetter to the north.

31Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Climbs Higher, U.S. Financial Conditions Tightened Significantly, S&P 500 Rallies Up 1.9% As Market Cuts Steep January Losses

Headlines:
U.S. Natural Gas Inventories Drop Below Five-Year Average Again.
The U.S. Is Falling Behind In Energy Tech Research.
Tesla climbs nearly 10% after Credit Suisse upgrade.
The new omicron sub-variant is more contagious, but vaccinated people are less likely to spread it.

Inflation at its worst: Some Attraction ticket prices are up as much as 100% as the COVID pandemic hard-hit. DOW closes up 406 points, NASDAQ up 3.4%. WTI settles at 88.30, USD at 96.58, Bitcoin at 38500.

Panic-bid rescues NASDAQ (barely) from worst January ever as rate-hike odds soar. This hike came as U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly (ex-March 2020, this is as big a tightening as in Q4 2018 just before Powell folded). Keep in mind just how much ‘easier’ financial conditions are still than the ‘easiest’ they have been for the last decade.

Netflix stock set for best day in a year as analysts say subscriber slowdown doesn’t tell the full story. Shares of Netflix Inc. are rocketing toward their best day in more than a year Monday after a pair of analysts say the stock’s selloff had gone too far.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

28Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rises Sharply Beginning 2:30 EST To Cap A Wild Week For Modest Gains, DOW Up 565 points, NASDAQ Up 3.1%, S&P 500 Up 2.4% And Ends Week Flat; In Correction Territory

Headlines:

Sixty million U.S. households have ordered free COVID tests, White House says.
S&P Suffers Worst Start To A Year Since 1939 As Yield Curve Yells ‘Recession.’
HP wins multi billion-dollar fraud case over Autonomy sale.
The two-year Treasury yield has the biggest weekly advance since 2019 as Fed raises the prospect of multiple hikes this year.
U.S. Rig Count Rises Along With Crude Prices

Oil Markets Bullish As Brent Breaks $90, WTI settles at 87.24. Oil markets are increasingly bullish as geopolitical risks spike and inventories continue to drain. Friday, January 28th, 2022, for the first time in seven years, Brent prices surged past $90 per barrel this week. In addition, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States rose by six this week, bringing the total rig count to 610, as oil prices continue to climb to attractive levels for drillers.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022

I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook.  JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons.  I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.