NOAA Updates April, 2022 Outlook

April 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EST on April 1, 2022 to reflect the issuance of the Week 3 – 4 Outlook that I think suggests that the Northern Tier of CONUS will be wetter than shown in the Outlook for April Issued yesterday.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is April. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is somewhat different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. It is overall less warm and less dry than the Mid-Month Outlook.  We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 22 days of April which will be 28 days when the Week 3 – 4 Update is issued on Friday.  We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Most of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. When the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is released, we will provide an update to this article if it is needed.

31Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Session’s Last Hour Watched Equities Slide Precariously Into Another Contraction, DOW Down 550 points, NASDAQ Down 1.5%, S&P 500 Down 1.6%, USD Higher at 98.29, Bitcoin Slips To $45700

March 31, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Wall Street’s three major indexes opened down and followed the trend line from yesterday’s closing session. Walgreens Boots, Home Depot share losses contribute to the Dow’s 550-point fall to end the worst quarter for stocks in 2 years. Wall Street retreats as S&P 500 makes its largest quarterly drop in two years.

The final hour of today’s session pushed the DOW and NASDAQ indexes below the 200 days SMA, and the DOW closed at its session bottom. In addition, today’s trading volume was again fractionally lower than average. This action does not bode well for a continued bull run, or investors’ inflation fear reversal.

U.S. oil prices fell 7% to close above $100 as President Biden announced the release from the U.S. SPR and asked oil companies to increase their drilling to boost crude supplies. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery settled down $7.54, at $100.28 a barrel, after reaching a session low of $99.66.

Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Spending fell while Personal Income rose. Weekly jobless claims rose to 202,000, above last week’s 53-year low, and Quarterly Grain Stocks – Wheat, Corn, and Soy were down, adding fear to a coming recession.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Worlds Top Banks Financed Fossil Fuels With $742 Billion In 2021
  • Get Ready To Pay More For Your Next Flight
  • Zinc Is Facing A Massive Supply Squeeze
  • Global Bonds Suffer Worst Drawdown Ever As Massive March ‘Squeeze’ Rescues Stocks From Rout
  • With Few New Cars On Lots, U.S. Auto Sales Likely Fell Sharply In The First Quarter, Analysts Say
  • JPMorgan Admits Central Banks Need A Recession “To Cure Inflation”
  • Project Syndicate: Putin’s War Will Destroy Russia

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

30Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Bid As Putin Sparks Stock Skid, Dollar Slides To 97.86, DOW Closes Down 65 Points, NASDAQ Down 1.2%, Gold Fractionally higher 1935, Bitcoin Lower $47100

March 30, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Wall Street opened mostly down as the DOW traded zig-zag across the unchanged line and finally snapped its four-day winning streak. The major indexes started to slide further into the red with NASDAQ making the steepest plunge closing near the session bottom. WTI settled at 107, slightly down, but remaining above its support. It appears that the S&P 500 has exitied correction territory – for now!

Today’s session traded on fractionally low red volume, yesterday, it was low green volume. This tells me many traders are remaining on the sidelines to see what the Fed’s are going to do about inflation. Many analysts are making dire predictions for a global recession that could happen withing two years.

If anything, the war in Ukraine and inflation remain the most important worries investors have in today’s market arena. Many EU countries are now asking citizens to curb or restrict gas consumption. In addition, investors are carefully watching diesel availability as that tends to drive inflation more than other indicators. However, recent signs of progress for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia waned against a backdrop of a hawkish central bank denting economic growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Netherlands Asks Citizens To Restrict Gas Consumption
  • Biden Administration Signals No Gulf Of Mexico Leases Through 2023
  • Poland Aims To Stop Using Russian Oil By End-2022
  • FEC Fines Hillary Clinton, DNC Over Steele Dossier Hoax
  • S&P 500 Exits Correction: Here’s What History Says Happens Next To U.S. Stock-Market Benchmark

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

29Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Up 338 points, NASDAQ up1.8%, S&P 500 Up 1.2%, Trading On Fractionally Low Volume, WTI Settled At $105, Gold 1920, Bitcoin 47700, Commodities Little Change From Yesterday

March 29, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Wall Street gapped up at the opening today and traded sideways until late afternoon when the three main indexes recorded their session highs.

Today’s main talking points are about taxing the rich and the battles of the words being exchanged are bipartisan as you might expect. Sen. Elizabeth Warren says billionaires should pay more taxes. “I’m happy to celebrate success, but let’s remember, Elon Musk didn’t make it on his own,” the Massachusetts Democrat told CNBC on Tuesday.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Why Oil Prices Are Finally Falling
  • Government Solutions Will Make The Gasoline Problem Worse: Peter Schiff
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren Says Billionaires Should Pay More Taxes To Help The ‘Next Elon Musk’
  • Aircraft Leasing Giant Casts Doubt On Renting To Russian Airlines Again After Putin Seizes Planes
  • ‘Russia-Reversal’ Report Routs Oil & Gold, Bonds Signal Recession Inevitable

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

28Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Up 95 Points, NASDAQ Up 1.3%, S&P 500 Up 0.7%, Bitcoin At Closing $47,900, USD Fractionally Higher At 99.20

March 28, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

The DOW and the S&P 500 started the session in negative territory, while the NASDAQ took off like a skyrocket when the opening bell sounded. Gains led DOW’s nearly 50-point climb for shares of Microsoft and Salesforce.com Inc. The DOW trimmed earlier losses, turning little changed to slightly higher in the final hour of trading. The DOW’s drop began with losses in Chevron and Intel.

However, the $RUT ended up in the red by the four o’clock bell. All three main indexes closed at or near their session highs to start the week. In other news, Bitcoin surges past $47,000 turning positive for 2022 after the weekend rally. On the other hand, oil dropped about 7% as China’s COVID outbreak clouded the demand outlook. The latest curbs hammered oil prices overnight, sending a barrel of WTI crude down 4% to under $110.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • India Will Not Pay In Rupees For Russian Oil, For Now
  • The Threat Of A Global Food Crisis Is Growing
  • Terran Orbital Starts Trading On The NYSE With $200 Million In Outstanding Spacecraft Orders
  • Oil, Gold, Yen, & Yield-Curve Slapped Lower; Ruble & Crypto ‘Rock’et Higher
  • Oil Slides More Than 8% As Shanghai Lock-down Prompts Demand Fears
  • Tesla Is One Of Only 11 Stocks In The S&P 500, Excluding Energy, That Enjoys This Critical Support

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

How to Solve Money Woes of the World Using the Bancor

March 28, 2022Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

I have written about money woes issues separately in the past on a variety of venues, but consistently on Econintersect and Talk Markets. Let me now gather these thoughts together. A confluence of impelling crises requires this synthesis.  Here I argue for the institution of a global currency – the Bancor – first proposed by John Maynard Keynes at Bretton Woods in 1944.

Three-Peat or Triple-Dip is not a Cause for Celebration

March 26, 2022Posted inClimateNo Comments

We have discussed this before but the fact that there is a possibility of a third La Nina Winter is a good reason to discuss it again. I would say that is is not real likely. But if it happens, it would be very serious. So that is why it is worth discussing. We have not previously discussed how Global Warming makes any drought more dangerous but that should be obvious. We know that the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results in a higher ratio of La Nina to El Nino Events. But we have not discussed how Global Warming might impact the PDO. So we are not addressing the broader question of whether or not Global Warming is increasing the chance of a third year of La Nina but simply looking at the evidence that a third year is a possibility. It seems that NOAA may be more concerned about the possibility than some other weather forecasting agencies in other part of the world, but we will attempt to show that their concern is not unreasonable.

25Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Mixed With The DOW Up 153 Points, NASDAQ Down 0.2%, S&P 500 Up 0.5%, WTI Crude relatively Unchanged Settling At $112 Bbl, Bitcoin Up Moderately to 44500

March 25, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Wall Street zigzag across the unchanged line for most of the session, remaining in the red until the remaining hour. Then, ending mostly higher and booked weekly gains. But, many investors fear a recession is around the corner.

Ending the week, the S&P 500 finishes higher and notches another straight weekly gain. In addition, new home buyers saw mortgage rates climb to almost 5% in the second jump this week.

The ongoing hawkish push is higher in market expectations for 2022’s rate-hike trajectory, with nine more rate-hikes now expected by the end of December.

Yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury notes climbed to their highest daily levels in almost three years today. In addition, treasury notes posted their biggest weekly gains in several years as investors reacted to Russia’s possible reassessment of its ambitions in the month-long war in Ukraine.

Today’s aggressive sell-off of U.S. government debt pushed yields higher. Meanwhile, the spread between 5- and 30-year rates shrank below three basis points and teetered on the brink of inverting.

It’s been another very busy week for oil and gas markets. Putin threatened European gas imports, a storm knocked a major oil pipeline offline, and a Saudi oil terminal came under missile attack. Nevertheless, Brent is above $120 per barrel as bullish sentiment remains dominant.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • High Gasoline Prices Are Starting To Hurt Demand
  • Saudi Aramco Facility Fire Under Control
  • Gm To Halt Pickup Truck Production In Indiana Due To Chip Shortage
  • 57% OF U.S. Households Paid No Federal Income Tax Last Year As Covid Took A Toll, Study Says
  • Stocks, Gold, & Oil Surge On Week As Yield Curve Carnage Screams ‘Recession’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.