07June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Major Indexes Gap Down On The Opening Bell To See-Saw Higher Closing Near The Last Session Highs, Investors Shake Off Target Profit Warning Followed By Choppy Trading

June 7, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 264 points or 0.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.89%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.95%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 120, up 0.602%,
  • USD $102.53 up 0.12%,
  • Gold 1854 up 0.18%,
  • Bitcoin $30950 up 4.77%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.52% / 2.988%

Today’s Economic Releases:

According to an analysis by Calculated Risk, May 2022 rail carloads are down year-over-year. In normal economic times, contraction in the transport sector is a recession flag. But this contraction may be a sign of the supply chain catching up with demand combined with a modest economic slowing.

Consumer Credit expanded in April 2022 according to Federal Reserve headlines for G.19 data. However, consumer debt payments are about mid-range for the period since 1980 – this will worsen as interest rates rise.

CoreLogic says home price growth continues its record-breaking streak growing by 20.9% year-over-year in April 2022. However, this growth is forecast to slow to 5.6% in the period April 2022 to April 2023.

The BEA reports that the trade deficit was $87.1 billion in April 2022 – down $20.6 billion from $107.7 billion in March. Interestingly, imports declined which is a usual recession flag.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Upward Pressure On Oil Prices Is Only Going To Increase
  • Target expects squeezed profits from an aggressive plan to get rid of unwanted inventory
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Target, Kohl’s, Peloton, and more
  • Stocks & Bonds Spike As Growth/Stagflation Scares Soar
  • Bond Report: 10- and 30-year Treasury yields drop by most in 2 weeks as investors await Friday’s U.S. inflation data

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

06June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Major Wall Street Indexes Gap Up To Last Thursday’s Closing High At The Opening Bell, Then Fall Sharply To Friday’s Support, Last Half-Hour Pushes Equities Solidly Into The Green

June 6, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 15 points or 0.04%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.40%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.31%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 118, down 2.21%,
  • USD $102.42 up 0.29%,
  • Gold 1842 up 1.05%,
  • Bitcoin $31444 up 6.30%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.87% / 3.042%

Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russias Oil Export Earnings Set To Decline On Heavily Discounted Urals
  • LNG Tanker Rates Soar To Highest Level In 10 Years
  • Solid Power, backed by Ford and BMW, begins pilot production of innovative EV battery with longer range and quicker recharging
  • Bitcoin & Bond Yields Soar As Stocks Puke Payrolls-Gains
  • Texas AG Launches Investigation Into Twitter; Alleges Company Lied About Number Of Bots
  • Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield tops 3% ahead of this week’s CPI reading

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates their Week 3-4 Outlook on June 3, 2022 – Easterly Wave and Monsoon Onset Likely

June 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at !:30 am EDT Monday, June 6, 2022 to include the Tropical Storm Alex Tracking Map which mostly now threatens Bermuda on Monday.  A near miss rather than a direct hit is expected.

On Tuesday, we discussed the NOAA update of their Outlook for June 2022. We only had 24 days of the short-term outlooks at that time so I decided to publish the Weeks 3 – 4 Outlook when it was issued which was today. It is always issued on a Friday. This combined with the discussion issued with the Outlook provides additional insight into how June weather will evolve.

The Weeks 3 and 4 Outlook just released and the precipitation Outlook (it remains an experimental product of NOAA), seems to confirm the Outlook for the Month of June with the possible exception that parts of the Southwest may be impacted by an Easterly Wave (from tropical activity) and an early onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM).

03June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: May Employment Report Shows 46K Fewer New Jobs Than Last Month, Unemployment Rate Remains The Same At 3.6%, Equities Gap Down At The Opening Bell, Remain In The Red At Closing

June 3, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 349 points or 1.05%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.47%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.64%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 120, up 2.96%,
  • USD $102.17 up 0.42%,
  • Gold 1851 down 0.01%,
  • Bitcoin $29547 down 3.05%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.29% / 2.944%

Today’s Economic Releases:

BLS employment data for May 2022 shows a rise in payroll employment by 390,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%. The big gains this month were in transportation/warehousing, leisure/hospitality, government, education, and health care. On the surface, this was a very good employment report. HOWEVER, the retail sector lost over 60,000 jobs with most retail sectors (even non-store retailers) adding to the decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • New Drilling Stalls Out In The U.S. Oil Patch
  • Israel Warns It Will Use Right To Self-Defense To Keep Nukes Out Of Iran
  • ‘Lots of luck on his trip to the moon’: Biden shrugs off Elon Musk’s economic fears, touts Ford investments
  • Oil Pops, Stocks Drop As Hawks & ‘Hurricanes’ Killed The Dead-Cat-Bounce

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

02June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Skyrockets Past Resistance, Nasdaq Cuts Two-Day Losing Streak, Equities Scream Higher On So-So Morning Financial Reports, Investors Oblivious To Weak Microsoft Outlook, Fed hike Fears

June 2, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 435 points or 1.33%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.75%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.84%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 117, up 2.121%,
  • USD $101.80 down 0.73%,
  • Gold $1850 up $10,
  • Bitcoin up 0.68% to $33278,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.16% / 2.9%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The four-week rolling average of Initial Unemployment Claims modestly declined this past week and remains historically low.

ADP’s Private Employment for May 2022 declined to 128,000. Nela Richardson, chief economist of ADP wrote:

Under a backdrop of a tight labor market and elevated inflation, monthly job gains are closer to pre-pandemic levels. The job growth rate of hiring has tempered across all industries, while small businesses remain a source of concern as they struggle to keep up with larger firms that have been booming as of late.

1Q2022 Non-farm business productivity declined 0.6% year-over-year whilst labor costs increased 8.2%.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, finding suitable employees for small business open positions continues to be a problem. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg wrote:

The labor force participation rate is slowly rising but small businesses continue to have a hard time filling their open positions. The number of job openings continues to exceed the number of unemployed workers which has produced a tight labor market and added pressure on wage levels.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Economic Officials Says Biden Considering Oil & Tax Windfall Tax
  • Walmart is using its thousands of stores to battle Amazon for e-commerce market share
  • Ford to add over 6,000 U.S. jobs as it boosts electric vehicle production and prepares for a new Mustang
  • ‘Bad News Is Good News’ – Stocks Soar As Macro-Meltdown Accelerates
  • The Sheer Stupidity Of Student Loan Forgiveness While Inflation Rages Out Of Control
  • Market Movers: MM Forgings zooms 9% on EV foray; La Opala starts new factory

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

01June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Major Indexes Turn Sharply Down During Last Half-Hour, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final MAY fell to 57 from 59.2, Investors Worry Over Economic Growth As Fed Sees Losing Control Of Inflation Expectations As Inflation Continues To Surge

June 1, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 177 points 0.54%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.72%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.75%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 115, down 0.151%,
  • USD $102.50 up 0.72%,
  • Gold 1848 up 0.90%,
  • Bitcoin down 0.35% to $30187,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.86% / 2.931%

Today’s Economic Releases:

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, their April 2022 JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report shows a modest reduction in job openings – although job openings remain well above historical values.

The ISM manufacturing index for May 2022 increased to 56.1% from April’s 55.4%. A value above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ declined from 57.0 in May – down from 59.2 in April.

The headline data from the US Census shows construction spending in April 2022 improved 0.2% month-over-month and 1.3% year-over-year. This is not inflation-adjusted – but the graph below shows inflation-adjusted values (Nov 2009 = 100), and clearly shows a decline month-over-month and year-over-year. Construction spending declines may or may not be associated with recessions.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book June 2022 was issued today. Their summary:

All twelve Federal Reserve Districts have reported continued economic growth since the prior Beige Book period, with a majority indicating slight or modest growth; four Districts indicated moderate growth. Four Districts explicitly noted that the pace of growth had slowed since the prior period.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Holds Nuclear Drills As Biden Unveils New Aid Package For Ukraine
  • Mortgage rates rise sharply after three weeks of easing
  • Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level since the end of 2018, even as interest rates ease a bit
  • Unprecedented water restrictions begin in Southern California as drought worsens
  • Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dumped As Dimon Doubles-Down On Dour Outlook
  • Trade Setup: Imperative for the markets to open and stay above 16,500 levels

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates its June Outlook May 31, 2022 – Quite a Big Change in Twelve Days

June 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

There has been a large change in the weather outlook for June from NOAA.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is June. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is quite different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. For temperature, the above-normal area is smaller than the Mid-Month Outlook and a large intrusion of colder air is expected along much of the Northern Tier. The drier than normal area is significantly reduced from the Mid-Month Outlook and shifted a bit and there are two additional areas of wetter than normal in the Outlook.

We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 24 days of June which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial month forecasts and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday.

We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during June.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. The Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected in the first half of June is a major factor.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year.

Vision for America: Alexander Hamilton vs. Thomas Jefferson

Vision for America: Alexander Hamilton vs. Thomas Jefferson

June 1, 2022Posted inopinion3 Comments

Among America’s Founding Fathers, no one has seen his fortune rise more dramatically over the past few years than Alexander Hamilton. Two highlights:

But I think he deserves much more attention and recognition, particularly in terms of having an enduring vision for America, especially when compared with Thomas Jefferson.

31May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Finishes Month Swinging Between Gain And Losses Finally Closing With The Three Major Indexes Down, Oil prices rose to a two-month high over the weekend, Bitcoin Rose In A Relief Rally, Average Gas Per Gal $4.62

May 31, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 517 points 1.61%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.68%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.99%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 115, down 1.76%,
  • USD $101.87 up 0.018%,
  • Gold 1837 up 0.94%,
  • Bitcoin up 0.11% to $31666,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.108% / 2.857%

Today’s Economic Releases:

CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp commented on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for March that was released this morning:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index posted a 20.6% increase in March – the strongest March annual gain in the history of the data series. At 2.6%, the monthly acceleration also peaked prior to the mortgage rate jump and is likely to return to historical averages in the coming months. After 32 months of logging the strongest home price gains, Phoenix’s price growth slowed considerably more than the other metro regions and is now outpaced by Tampa, Florida. Nevertheless, the first quarter of 2022 was marked by some of the most competitive housing market conditions since the onset of the pandemic. Home-buyer frenzy reached another new high as eager buyers pursued last-ditch efforts to secure a home purchase before the mortgage rate surge.

Chicago Business Barometer lifted to 60.3 in May, following last month’s 56.4. Inventories saw a fresh near 50-year high. All main indicators increased except for supplier deliveries, which hit the lowest since November 2020.

The Dallas Fed May 2022 manufacturing index improved from 10.8 to 18.8.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Continue To Climb As Supply Uncertainties Mount
  • The Hamptons summer rental market is facing an unexpected chill as inventory piles up and prices come down
  • Rising gas prices and inflation top travel concerns, overtaking Covid, survey finds
  • Stocks Go Nowhere In May, USD Sinks Amid Worst Macro-Meltdown Since Lehman
  • Trade Setup: Strong chances of markets consolidating at current levels
  • The Tell: Retailers hit with ‘double-whammy’ as inventories rise, consumer sector stocks punished in May

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.